Earlier quoted context omitted.
Missed the boat? Have you been living under a rock? Watson AI advertising has been everywhere for years. It’s not that they aren't in the AI space, it’s that the CEO has a shockingly sober take on it. Probably because they’ve been doing AI for 30+ years combined with the fact they don’t have endless money with nowhere to invest it like Google.
> Missed the boat? […] Watson AI advertising has been everywhere for years. They were ahead of the game with their original Watson tech, but pretty slow to join and try get up to speed with the current GenAI families of tech. The meaning of “AI” has shifted to mean “generative AI like what ChatGPT does” in the eyes of most so you need to account for this. When people talk about AI, even though it is a fairly wide fie…
IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off
901–910 of 985 posts
Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off
#902Earlier quoted context omitted.
Missed the boat? Have you been living under a rock? Watson AI advertising has been everywhere for years. It’s not that they aren't in the AI space, it’s that the CEO has a shockingly sober take on it. Probably because they’ve been doing AI for 30+ years combined with the fact they don’t have endless money with nowhere to invest it like Google.
> Missed the boat? […] Watson AI advertising has been everywhere for years. They were ahead of the game with their original Watson tech, but pretty slow to join and try get up to speed with the current GenAI families of tech. The meaning of “AI” has shifted to mean “generative AI like what ChatGPT does” in the eyes of most so you need to account for this. When people talk about AI, even though it is a fairly wide fie…
Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off
#903Earlier quoted context omitted.
An issue with the doom forecasts is most of the hypothetical $8tn hasn't happened yet. Current big tech capex is about $315bn this year, $250bn last against a pre AI level ~$100bn so ~$400bn has been spent so far on AI boom data centers. https://sherwood.news/business/amazon-plans-100-billion-spen... The future spend is optional - AGI takeoff, you spend loads, not happening not so much. Say it levels of at $800bn. Th…
Lol. If you ballpark numbers like that probably anything is doable!
Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off
#904Despite the flashy title that's the first "sober" analysis from a CEO I read about the technology. While not even really news, it's also worth mentioning that the energy requirements are impossible to fulfill Also now using ChatGPT intensely since months for all kinds of tasks and having tried Claude etc. None of this is on par with a human. The code snippets are straight out of Stackoverflow...
I'm not sure what you mean with the "code snippets are straight out of Stackoverflow". That is factually incorrect just by how LLM works. By now there has been so much code ingested from all kinds of sources, including Stackoverflow LLM is able to help generate quite good code in many occasions. My point being it is extremly useful for super popular languages and many languages where resources are more scarce for dev…
I'm not an AI lover, but I did try Gemini for a small, well-contained algorithm for a personal project that I didn't want to spend the time looking up, and it was straight-up a StackOverflow solution. I found out because I said "hm, there has to be a more elegant solution", and quickly found the StackOverflow solution that the AI regurgitated. Another 10 or 20 minutes of hunting uncovered another StackOverflow solution with the requisite elegance.
Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off
#905Earlier quoted context omitted.
The used market is going to be absolutely flooded with millions of old cards. I imagine shipping being the most expensive cost for them. The supply side will be insane. Think 100 cards but only 1 buyer as a ratio. Profit for ebay sellers will be on "handling", or inflated shipping costs. eg shipping and handling.
I assume NVIDIA and co. already protects themselves in some way, either by the fact of these cards not being very useful after resale, or requiring them to go to the grinder after they expire.
I don't think nVidia will have any problem there. If anything, hobbyists being able to use 2025 cards would increase their market by discovering new uses.
Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off
#906Earlier quoted context omitted.
Take this "sober" analysis with a big pinch of salt. IBM have totally missed the AI boat, and a large chunk of their revenue comes from selling expensive consultants to clients who do not have the expertise to do IT work themselves - this business model is at a high risk of being disrupted by those clients just using AI agents instead of paying $2-5000/day for a team of 20 barely-qualified new-grads in some far-off c…
I would any day take chatGPT/Claude over an IBM consultant. I worked at IBM.
It wasn't very promising when it came to benchmarks though, go figure: https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models
Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off
#907Earlier quoted context omitted.
100GW per year is not going to happen. The largest plant in the world is the Three Gorges Dam in China at 22GW and it’s off the scales huge. We’re not building the equivalent of four of those every year. Unless the plan is to power it off Sam Altman’s hot air. That could work. :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_power_stations
New datacenters are being planned next to natgas hubs for a reason. They’re being designed with on site gas turbines as primary electricity sources.
Planning gas turbines doesn't help much if gas prices are about to increase due to lack of new supply.
New Zealand put in peaker gas turbines, but is running out of gas to run them, so its electricity market is gonna be fucked in a dry year (reduced water from weather for hydro):
• Domestic gas production is forecast to fall almost 50 per cent below projections made just three years ago.
• In a dry year, New Zealand no longer has enough domestic gas to [both] fully operate existing thermal generation and meet industrial gas demand.
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/31240-factsheet-challen...Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off
#908Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem I had that the larger your project gets, the more mistakes Claude makes. I (not a parent commenter) started with a basic CRUD web app and was blown away by how detailed it was, new CSS, good error handling, good selection and use of libraries, it could even write the terminal commands for package management and building. As the project grew to something larger Claude started forgetting that some code alre…
> The problem I had that the larger your project gets, the more mistakes Claude makes I think the reason for this is because these systems get all their coding and design expertise from training, and while there is lots of training data available for small scale software (individual functions, small projects), there is much less for large projects (mostly commercial and private, aside from a few large open source pro…
Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off
#909Earlier quoted context omitted.
A typical data centre is $2,500 per year per kW load (including overhead, hvac and so on). If it costs $800,000 to replace the whole rack, then that would pay off in a year if it reduces 320 kW of consumption. Back when we ran servers, we wouldn't assume 100% utilisation but AI workloads do do that; normal server loads would be 10kW per rack and AI is closer to 100. So yeah, it's not hard to imagine power savings of…
Thanks for the numbers! Isn't it more likely that the amount of power/heat generated per rack will stay constant over each upgrade cycle, and the upgrade simply unlocks a higher amount of service revenue per rack?
Our racks are provisioned so that there are two independent rails, which each can support 7kW. Up until the last few years, this was more than enough power. As CPU TDPs increased, we started to need to do things like not connect some nodes to both redundant rails or mix disk servers into compute racks to keep under 7kW/rack.
A single HGX B300 box has 6x6kW power supplies. Even before we get to paying the (high) power bills, it's going to cost a small fortune to just update the racks, power distribution units, UPS, etc... to even be able to support more than a handful of those things
Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off
#910Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is always "I'm producing 300 projects in a nanosecond" but it's almost never about sharing or actually deploying these ;)
Here's mine fully deployed, https://hackernewsanalyzer.com/ . I use it daily and have some users. ~99.7% LLM code. About 1 hour to first working prototype then another 40 hours to get it polished and complete to current state.
take care