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Americans no longer see four-year college degrees as worth the cost

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Re: Americans no longer see four-year college degrees as worth the cost

#901
post #734
post #627

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most useful skill and knowledge is still learned on the job. The "education" is just a selection process. It selects for the ability and intrinsic motivation to learn. If you were running a factory or a building construction company, wouldn't you want that in someone you hire? Are there high school dropouts who have the ability and intrinsic motivation? Of course there are. Many drop out due to poverty and family/c…

> It selects for the ability and intrinsic motivation to learn. You are confusing obedience and willingness to jump through hoops with the motivation to learn. People largely don't need school to learn most things. I would argue that most good learners actually hate school. It would be challenging to self-teach your way to advanced math/physics but that does not concern the vast majority of education. Being motivated…

> You are confusing obedience and willingness to jump through hoops with the motivation to learn.

You can call it obedience or whatever libertarian talking point you like, but the ability to negotiate social systems is an important skill for functioning in society, whether as an employee or entrepreneur.

It's always been the case, even before industrialization. The most effective STEM workers are the ones who understand the social context they work in, not the narrowly technically focused STEM nerd.

> Someone having a specific diploma doesn't mean he is actually competent in practice. It is just more likely that he isn't absolutely terrible, but that's mostly risk [h]edging (sic)

It's absolutely risk hedging, and that's just how most employment works. Most employers are not looking for special snowflakes, that would be really inefficient. They want a likely average competence above a certain level, which varies by industry and company.

> That's the whole point of a business. Assume risks to merit the potential payoff.

If you think business are interested in assuming any more risk than absolutely necessary to improve maximize financial outcomes, you haven't been in business much. We live in an era of lean operations (for better or for worse), and it's only getting leaner.

Companies want to solve the problem they focus on (i.e. build a farm combine), not run a basic education program for understanding the units of torque values on the bolts that hold it together.

> Why do you think the cost of job training should be assumed by the public when they will not get any of the private benefits generated.

The public gets taxpayers and a population who can afford to raise a family, which is essential for the continuation of "the public".

> What is need is relaxed employment regulations, so that if it doesn't work out, it is not too expensive for business to let go of poor prospect.

We already have relaxed regulations today. The existence of noncompete and at-will employment agreements means that even highly educated workers can be fired without cause.

Furthermore, many companies try to hire people as contractors for as long as they can get away with it in the labor market. The number of 1099 workers is growing lately, largely due to reduced labor leverage.

Relaxing employment regulations isn't going to make employers invest in education. They would sooner invest in automation (like automated paint shops for car manufacturing), which is what they have done for generations now.

Back to to the original point, automation is a major why they don't have need for less educated workers anymore, as anyone who has visited a modern factory can see for themselves.

Re: Americans no longer see four-year college degrees as worth the cost

#902

Total cost of ownership is 4 years x $15k-$25k (for a cheap public school) + missed income from working that same four years ($35k x 4 years). This is equal to $220k +/- $20k of lost money. Now compare this to income differential. Starting grad income is $80k(?). At 4% raise per year compared to 3.5% raise per year for a non-college employee. Over 43 years. My math comes out to the college grad is still making more m…

This idea that a university degree gets you a higher exponent on your annual raises seems like a poor model. Many careers have an effective ceiling on possible wages, baring becoming an executive or owner of some sort.

I consider degrees to be a compressed delivery of 15 years of work experience into 4 years. After 15 years of work, the same pay would be given to a college grad with zero years of experience.

Re: Americans no longer see four-year college degrees as worth the cost

#903

Total cost of ownership is 4 years x $15k-$25k (for a cheap public school) + missed income from working that same four years ($35k x 4 years). This is equal to $220k +/- $20k of lost money. Now compare this to income differential. Starting grad income is $80k(?). At 4% raise per year compared to 3.5% raise per year for a non-college employee. Over 43 years. My math comes out to the college grad is still making more m…

Are you assuming $55k salary differential? ($80k for starting graduate vs $35k for non-graduate)? That seems a bit high.

what would a more reasonable ratio be? I consider someone without a degree 15 years later making the same as a college grad right out of school. though at 3.5% that would come out to $58,000.

So yeah the numbers are not the most rational. $60k would be more reasonable for a college grad.

Re: Americans no longer see four-year college degrees as worth the cost

#904

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that the bar for getting into Harvard is rather high these days, shouldn't we expect the median grade in Harvard to be fairly high? If C students aren't allowed into Harvard these days, doesn't it make sense they aren't giving out Cs?

I've interviewed Harvard CS grads for SWE roles at big tech who couldn't write a working program for fizzbuzz, for defanging an IP address, or for reversing words in a sentence, in a language of their choice, with leetcode's provided instructions, in half an hour, with unlimited attempts, gentle coaching from me, and the ability to use the internet to search for anything that isn't a direct solution (e.g. syntax). Ye…

I'm curious about the degree validation thing. Did you or your employer validate the degree before the interview?

Re: Americans no longer see four-year college degrees as worth the cost

#905

Maybe one thing to keep in mind is that there are a big range of colleges in the US. If you go to a poorly regarded party school then probably you have a good time and maybe even get some useful connections out of it, but the main advantage is presumably being able to check the ‘college degree’ box when applying to relatively ordinary jobs. If you go to Harvard then (a) you pay much less if you have limited means and…

The signalling hypothesis (of Bryan Caplan [1]) lurks within your two premises. Neither the poorly regarded party school nor Harvard add much in the way of human capital. What both do is act as honest signals of intelligence, ability, conscientiousness, and resourcefulness (including family resources). These are extremely valuable indicators for prospective employers who are otherwise prohibited (by law) from asking…

I certainly learned a lot of mathematics at university that I probably wouldn’t have learned without it. Perhaps more importantly was some amount of mathematical maturity. The former has probably not been that useful in my career (idk maybe some linear algebra?) and the latter maybe a little bit, but if one were trying to figure out the optimal things to learn for my job, they probably wouldn’t have been what I studied.

Re: Americans no longer see four-year college degrees as worth the cost

#906

Earlier quoted context omitted.

American health insurance is insurance in name only - picture health insurance models laid on top of your car: Imagine your car gets totaled. Your insurer says, "Hey, we're going to pay out $25K for your vehicle. So you have a $1,000 deductible, so that's $24,000, and then your copay for a total loss is $2,000, so that brings us down to $22,000. For total losses, your coinsurance as your contribution for your vehicle…

> American health insurance is insurance in name only - picture health insurance models laid on top of your car: Health insurance is more insurance than car insurance in the US. There is a legal out of pocket maximum of $17k or so, and networks don’t matter for emergency situations. In fact, people get millions of dollars of healthcare from health insurance whereas auto insurance provides a maximum of $500k after whi…

Nitpick:

$1m Bodily Injury limits are sometimes available for auto policies. Many providers also don't offer over $300k, only some do the $500k option!

Re: Americans no longer see four-year college degrees as worth the cost

#907
post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> have created financial crises at most universities Those multi-billion dollar endowments are fine man, don't worry about them, they're not running out.

At 4% a billion dollars yields 40 million per year, if you have 1000 staff that's 40k each, barely pays a salary.

Yeah and if you had 100k staff it's a pittance!

Re: Americans no longer see four-year college degrees as worth the cost

#908

Higher ed is like employer based health insurance in that they are both weird path dependent historical accidents. People want cheap healthcare, and it got shoehorned into an odd employer fringe benefit system that really is not at all related healthcare in any intrinsic way. People want job training, and it got shoehorned into extra departments at liberal arts universities intended as aristocrat finishing schools. J…

In Argentina, electricity bill comes with an added fee for covering funeral costs insurance.

Re: Americans no longer see four-year college degrees as worth the cost

#909

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Expansionist authoritarians, which in the post war world was communists. Why would the world need defending from non-expansionist authoritarians?

Maybe. They seem to actually like expansionist authoritarians now. Evidence being the Russia Ukraine peace effort.

Another thing the US did in the post-war world was apply economic leverage to dismantle European empires. This can also be viewed as defending nations against external coercion.

Re: Americans no longer see four-year college degrees as worth the cost

#910

The downward "is it worth it" trend over the last 12 years is partly due to the continued upward climb of college tuition. Some schools are now at $100,000/yr for tuition, room, and board. In order for this to be "worth the cost" they would have to have a strongly positive expected value in terms of future earnings. And a positive EV isn't sufficient. It would also need to have a very low chance of negative EV. Other…

I do believe it really is this simple. I don't buy a $47 carton of eggs because it's just not worth it.

People do the math and think, "I don't want to spend $40,000 on this. I can get a decent job without spending that, and then I can buy a car, too."

Politically and economically, it's incredibly dangerous for universities to keep going down this path. When the common citizen finds low value in a particularly expensive-to-run government institution, they elect lawmakers who dispose of those institutions.

As a society, we need to highly value widely-obtainable post-secondary education, from the citizens to the President. Or we're doomed.

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