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Zohran Mamdani wins the New York mayoral race

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Re: Zohran Mamdani wins the New York mayoral race

#901

Post by jasondigitized »

GenerWork wrote: post #170
octaane wrote: post #73

You guys have it all wrong. There was only one candidate for the dem party, Here's the list: 1) Cuomo. Sexpest who has been accused by many women of some pretty shitty stuff. Also a member of a multi-generational dynasty, which is not good. 2) Mayor Adams. Federally indicted by the Feds. They have a 99% conviction rate. Not because they're corrupt, but because they only go after people who have dome some really egreg…

>his policies are relatively common sense and middle of the road. Rent control isn't middle of the road, it's 100% socialist. Same thing with city run grocery stores. He also wants to defund the police while replacing them with community outreach people, as well as raising the minimum wage to $30 in 5 years which is absolutely wild. None of this is middle of the road in any way, shape, or form.

The minimum wage needing to be $30 is just math unless you believe people shouldn't be able to live in America.

Re: Zohran Mamdani wins the New York mayoral race

#902

Post by jasondigitized »

testfoobar wrote: post #52

Mamdani's and by extension, his voters', ignorance about the effects of price controls in markets will be an interesting real-time political experiment. When the inevitable unintended outcomes become to emerge who will be blamed? https://rentguidelinesboard.cityofnewyork.us/resources/apart... https://www.zohranfornyc.com/platform Quoting Paul Krugman (Nobel prize winner and liberal columnist at the NYT). "The analysi…

But tariffs across the entire U.S. economy are cool......

Re: Zohran Mamdani wins the New York mayoral race

#903

Post by rsynnott »

octaane wrote: post #73

You guys have it all wrong. There was only one candidate for the dem party, Here's the list: 1) Cuomo. Sexpest who has been accused by many women of some pretty shitty stuff. Also a member of a multi-generational dynasty, which is not good. 2) Mayor Adams. Federally indicted by the Feds. They have a 99% conviction rate. Not because they're corrupt, but because they only go after people who have dome some really egreg…

It's kind of astonishing that they couldn't find a non-terrible establishment candidate, really.

Like, they mightn't have won, but surely a boring establishment candidate would at least have beat Cuomo.

Re: Zohran Mamdani wins the New York mayoral race

#904

Post by OkayPhysicist »

nostrebored wrote: post #196
voidhorse wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent is a nonproductive component in the economy. It shouldn't even exist. If we want an economy that actually provides goods that people need we should focus on productive components like building more houses and actual shelter rather than using limited housing to extract profit, often without even improving the housing itself. > are already facing is that on the margin people he hopes will pay for it will just move…

Rent is a nonproductive component in the economy is a ridiculous statement. People need shelter and like nice shelter. People pay for access to amenities and convenience. _incentivizing building housing in areas where people want to live or where people work is efficient_

You equate "housing" and "rent". In a world where consumers had unlimited access to capital, the free market rate for housing would converge on the interest rate + shared costs (think condo fees, property taxes, etc) -/+ appreciation/depreciation of the housing, because consumers would always have the option of taking a loan to buy the property, then re-selling when they want to move, paying off the loan and receiving back whatever they paid on the principal.

Comparing to the real world, the cost of rent is greater than that, because people are paying a premium for their inaccess to capital. Looking at where I live, the hypothetical value is approximately the condo fees (5.5% interest, 1% property tax, 6-and-change% appreciation), which for a 2b2b apartment around around $600 bucks a month. Rent for an equivalent apartment literally next door is $2700 a month. That suggests that more than 75% of the value of rent is paying for inaccess to capital, i.e., textbook rentseeking.

Re: Zohran Mamdani wins the New York mayoral race

#905

Post by jasondigitized »

dluan wrote: post #541
FuckButtons wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That may be so, but how far do you think viral radical left wing populism is going to get you towards regaining people who voted for trump?

well Prop 50 to redraw California's district lines passed by a nearly 30% margin and counting right now. That's an absolute spanking leading up to 26 midterms. The story tonight isn't about Trump at all though, it's about millennial DSA types beating the establishment Democratic institution - in NYC, Detroit, Mississippi. In 24 everyone was astonished at the lack of response - "what is DNC going to do about losing to…

Doesn't matter because it doesn't need to be him. It can be any of the younger American white dudes that are emerging who can co-opt the same message.

Re: Zohran Mamdani wins the New York mayoral race

#906

Post by rsynnott »

tim333 wrote: post #727
pjc50 wrote: post #588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Brit who has been exposed to the blanket coverage of this on social media: Mamdani is going to be like Sadiq Khan. Popular with people in the city, while those outside run endless weird fantasy "news" scare stories because he's a Muslim.

I'm a Londoner who voted for Khan. There's a difference in that contrary to all the scapegoat stuff in the right wing press, Khan has had largely sensible middle of of the road policies. And where he has deviated from the average, on air pollution, it's been stuff I'm in favour of - I have desire to get sick/die from that. Mamdani seems like a nice guy but some of his policies seem a bit bonkers - state owned retail…

It doesn't seem like _that_ bonkers an idea? It'd be a trial, and, well, if they can't compete, they can't compete. And if they _can_ compete, then they will drive down prices.

People probably thought the UK's state-owned bank was a bit bonkers at the time (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Girobank) but it _worked_; it forced private banks to expand access and to modernise. And then eventually it couldn't compete. But it's hard to consider it as anything other than a success.

(This is all assuming that NYC supermarkets have a competition problem in the first place, though. Never been to NYC, so wouldn't know.)

Re: Zohran Mamdani wins the New York mayoral race

#907

Post by hughlomas »

matsemann wrote: post #505
koolba wrote: post #42

I’m a big believer that the people elect the government they deserve. Let’s see how this plays out.

This hoping for a future schadenfreude is kinda nasty. Why wouldn't you want the best for people?

When a parent tells their child not to touch the hot stove, they want the best for the child. When the child does it anyway, the parent hopes that the lesson will be instructive for the future.

Re: Zohran Mamdani wins the New York mayoral race

#908

Post by rsynnott »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #806
rkuykendall-com wrote: post #750

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't it proposing running like five grocery stores to test? That's not bonkers or radical. Or even expensive. It seems like the type of experiment HN would love.

It’s an unnecessary experiment that wastes time. Kroger/Costco/Walmart/Albertsons all have 2% profit margins. These are extremely optimized, large scale businesses. No city government is going to do it for cheaper. Which means the most prices can be lowered is 2%. Which means the problem in food deserts is the customers are too poor. Which means the solution is giving poor people money. But that is not a winning poli…

It doesn't look like there _are_ any Walmarts in NYC? Are supermarkets in NYC actually offering the same prices as supermarkets in places where there are Walmarts?

Re: Zohran Mamdani wins the New York mayoral race

#909

Post by testfoobar »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #894
testfoobar wrote: post #884

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something is observably wrong. The ratio of rent to income has drastically changed against workers - this is destructive to society. But the cause is deeper than rent price controls, minimum wage and worker protections. After the 2008 financial crisis, western central banks digitally printed trillions of dollars (Quantitative Easing) to refloat our financial system. The collapse of 2008 was itself the result of perve…

I don't disagree with anything you said here. But sadly we all have to play with the cards we dealt. Mamdami can't force the Central Bank to QT anymore than Trump wants to QE us into hyperinflation. And I'm not sure if either would fix what's already broken. The scales and old ways of life are broken. I don't think anyone is interested in throwing it out and starting new, so we need to rebalance with the scale we hav…

Bringing down asset prices is what is necessary for younger workers to have a chance. As it is - young people will be perpetual wage slaves and never build capital (e.g. home equity, retirement funds) like previous generations. The fear, anger and despondency evident in people who are delaying family formation, delaying medical treatment, hiding their true self while others boast of yachts, and gulfstreams and Aman resorts on instagram, and question whether someone's identity is worthy - all of it is profoundly sad.

But lowering asset prices is a nearly politically impossible lift.

Left-wing populists will promise to deliver. But will ultimately fail. Populism ultimately is a rejection of elites. Elites who are currently failing the public. But you musn't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

My objection is that left-wing populism with its rejection of economic elites, rejection of capitalism and the big-tent embrace of "all" is isomorphic to right wing populism with its rejection of science (antivax), embrace of nationalism and focus on homogeneity. Economists have good ideas. Capitalism is what built the water system that nourishes NYC. A movement embracing "all" will find itself eventually fractured by vote-bank politics as tribal affiliations will dominate in the end.

I am personally focused on thinking about how rewire the financial plumbing over succumbing to either left or right wing populist movements.

Anyway - Mamdani is a forceful, and commanding speaker. His victory speech last night was truly an American original. I think he's trying to point the vector towards a better life for more people and that is a good thing.

Re: Zohran Mamdani wins the New York mayoral race

#910

Post by Shocka1 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #548
almosthere wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if minimum wage was $60 in a year you'll see a bread loaf for $900

Please prove this assertion. Show your math. I can pickup a loaf of bread for $1.42 in a state with a $15/hr minimum wage, as of this comment. What does a $30 minimum wage make it? $2? $2.50? The horror. $900? I am doing my best to be polite and charitable.

I sense your frustration and I think they were probably being a bit sarcastic... I won't speculate on a loaf of bread, but I would speculate that everything from a loaf of bread to a home increases in price substantially if minimum wage were raised to $60. As wages increase, prices tend to follow, since workers across the spectrum demand higher pay.

I'm not against raising minimum wage, but economics is a very complex thing and changes like that need to be approached carefully.

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