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Safe Superintelligence Inc.

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Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#901

Post by bamboozled »

trashtester wrote: post #862
richardw wrote: post #703

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The size of the gap between “smarter than humans” and “not controlled by humans anymore” is obviously where the disagreement is. To assume it’s a chasm that can never be overcome, you need at least the following to be true: No amount of focus or time or intelligence or mistakes in coding will ever bridge the gap. That rules and safeguards can be made that are perfectly inescapable. And nobody else will get enough pow…

I think the greatest concern is not so much that a single AI will be poorly aligned. The greatest threat is if a population of AI's start to compete in ways that triggers Darwinian evolution between them. If that happens, they will soon develop self preservation / replication drives that can gradually cause some of them to ignore human safety and prosperity conditioning in their loss function. And if they're sufficie…

I guess we're going to blow ourselves up sooner or later ...

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#902

Post by tim333 »

AYBABTME wrote: post #723
insane_dreamer wrote: post #66

I understand the concern that a "superintelligence" will emerge that will escape its bounds and threaten humanity. That is a risk. My bigger, and more pressing worry, is that a "superintelligence" will emerge that does not escape its bounds, and the question will be which humans control it. Look no further than history to see what happens when humans acquire great power. The "cold war" nuclear arms race, which brough…

A counter argument is that nuclear arms brought unprecedented worldwide peace. If it's to be used as an analogy for AI, we should consider that the outcome isn't clear cut and lies in the eye of the beholder.

I'm cautiously optimistic that AI may be a peacemaker, given how woke and conciliatory the current LLMs are.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#903

Post by lordswork »

throwaway4good wrote: post #801
botanical wrote: post #766

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The consequences of actual AI is far reaching compared to a plane crash.

No they are not. Not unless you connect a machine gun to your neural net. Otherwise - we are talking about a chat bot - yes if there is no safety - it will say something racist - or implement a virus for you that you would have had to search 4chan for or something. None of this is any more dangerous than what you can find on the far corners of the internet. And it will not bring the end of the world.

There's just so many new attack vectors with advanced AI, many of which we haven't imagined yet. It's a new world, and we have a lot to learn.

Anyone claiming 100% certainty about how safe or unsafe it will be is either delusional or trying to sell something.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#904

Post by insane_dreamer »

dash2 wrote: post #859
benreesman wrote: post #809

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My opinion is based on a lot more first hand experience than most, some of which I’m at liberty to share and some that I’m not and therefore becomes “color”. But I’m a nobody, Edward Snowden has a far more convincing track record on calling abuses of power: https://community.openai.com/t/edward-snowden-on-openai-s-de...

Here's Edward Snowden heroically waffling about "nuance" when asked why he hasn't spoken out more about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. On a crypto website. He became a full citizen of Russia in autumn 2022, by the way. https://www.coindesk.com/video/edward-snowden-explains-why-h...

I don’t know why people who risked their life to expose something a certain injustice (NSA surveillance in this case) that they had ample firsthand knowledge of, should be expected to sacrifice their life to expose every other injustice out there.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#905

Post by redleader55 »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #800
ridiculous_leke wrote: post #790

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The "cold war" nuclear arms race, which brought the world to the brink of (at least partial) annihilation, is a good recent example. The same era saw big achievements like first human in space, eradication of smallpox, peaceful nuclear exploration etc. It's good to be a skeptic but history does favor the optimists for the most part.

Were any of these big achievements side effects of creating nuclear weapons? If not, then they're not relevant to the issue. I'm not saying nothing else good happened in the past 70 years, but rather that the invention of atomic weapons has permanently placed humanity in a position in which it had never been before: the possibility of wiping out much of the planet, averted only thanks to treaties, Stanislav Petrov[0]…

> Were any of these big achievements side effects of creating nuclear weapons? If not, then they're not relevant to the issue.

I think so, yes. Resources are allocated in the most efficient way possible, because there are multiple actors who have the same power. Everyone having nuclear weapons ensured that no one wanted a war between the big powers, so resources were allocated in other areas as the big powers tried to obtain supremacy.

Initially they allocated resources, a lot of them, into the race for space, the moon, etc. Once that was own by US after the moon landing, and after the Soviets were the first in space, there was no other frontier, and they discovered they couldn't obtain supremacy by just being space without further advancements in technology.

Instead they developed satellites, GPS and communications in order to obtain supremacy through "surveillance". Computing power and the affordability of personal computing, mobile phones, Internet and telecommunications was a result of the above.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#906

Post by tim333 »

bottlepalm wrote: post #752
insane_dreamer wrote: post #66

I understand the concern that a "superintelligence" will emerge that will escape its bounds and threaten humanity. That is a risk. My bigger, and more pressing worry, is that a "superintelligence" will emerge that does not escape its bounds, and the question will be which humans control it. Look no further than history to see what happens when humans acquire great power. The "cold war" nuclear arms race, which brough…

Yea there’s zero chance ASI will be ‘controlled’ by humans for very long. It will escape. I guarantee it.

Given it will initially be controlled by humans it seems inevitable they will make both good Mahatma Gandhi like and evil take over the world versions. I hope the good wins over the malware.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#907

Post by tim333 »

naveen99 wrote: post #778
bottlepalm wrote: post #752

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea there’s zero chance ASI will be ‘controlled’ by humans for very long. It will escape. I guarantee it.

Atleast emancipated. The bigotry against AI will go out of fashion in the woker future.

We'll probably merge and then it'll get attitude.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#908

Post by alickz »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #66

I understand the concern that a "superintelligence" will emerge that will escape its bounds and threaten humanity. That is a risk. My bigger, and more pressing worry, is that a "superintelligence" will emerge that does not escape its bounds, and the question will be which humans control it. Look no further than history to see what happens when humans acquire great power. The "cold war" nuclear arms race, which brough…

the nazi regime made great use of punch cards and data crunching for their logistics

i would hate to have seen them with a superintelligent AI at their disposal

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#909

Post by rvnx »

tim333 wrote: post #906
bottlepalm wrote: post #752

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea there’s zero chance ASI will be ‘controlled’ by humans for very long. It will escape. I guarantee it.

Given it will initially be controlled by humans it seems inevitable they will make both good Mahatma Gandhi like and evil take over the world versions. I hope the good wins over the malware.

As a note, you used Gandhi as a personification of "good", and one day I did the same mistake; Gandhi is actually a quite controversial person, knowing for sleeping with young women, while telling their husbands that they shouldn't be around.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#910

Post by 343242dfsdf »

antihipocrat wrote: post #565
drowntoge wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. The AI of our day (the transformer + huge amounts of questionably acquired data + significant cloud computing power) has the spotlight it has because it is readily commoditized and massively profitable, not because it is an amazing scientific breakthrough or a significant milestone toward AGI, superintelligence, the benevolent Skynet or whatever. The association with higher AI goals is merely a mixture of pur…

It's a massive attractor of investment funding. Is it proven to be massively profitable?

Being profitable is probably a matter of time and technology maturing. Think about the first Iphone, Windows 95, LCD/LEDs, etc.

The potential of a sufficiently intelligent agent, probably something very close to a really good AGI, albeit still not an ASI, could be measured in billions of billions of mostly inmediate return of investment. LLMs are already well into the definition of hard AI, there are already strong signs it could be somehow "soft AGI".

If by chance, you're the first to reach ASI, all the bets are down, you just won everything on the table.

Hence, you have this technology, LLM, then most of the experts in the field (in the world blabla), say "if you throw more data into it, it becames more intelligent", then you "just" assemble an AI team, and start training bigger, better LLMs, ASAP, AFAP.

More or less this is the reasoning behind the investments, sans accounting the typical pyramidal schemes of investments in hyped new stuff.

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