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Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

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Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#901

Can anybody make a good argument as to why Twitter (in its current form) isn’t a major detriment to society? If Twitter poofed out of existence today, it would be a major win for this planet. People talk about a frightening future with a human hostile AI that wants to destroy humanity. That exists, it’s twitter. Elon buying it, even if he runs it into the ground is a good thing. Getting rid of some of the hostile AI…

Only 23% of the US public uses Twitter, and of that 23%, 80% of the posts come from about 10% of those users. These are the numbers I point to when people want to call Twitter the "modern day public square". I don't buy it, and think that the only real significant problem with Twitter is how much credence folks that are on it (including media personalities) give it.

> These are the numbers I point to

IDK, that sounds like more participation (in speaking and listening) than I'd expect out of a literal public square, although not by a whole lot.

I remember coming across street preachers on the Santa Monica promenade. I want to say 10-20 people would stop to listen, where 1-2 people would be speaking (preacher and a possible commenter). I don't even know how to estimate how many people simply walked by, but the audience being less than 20% of that sounds very likely.

TL;DR Anecdotal experience in one actual public square, estimates less than 20% of the physically present public participating, and less than 10% of that speaking.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#902
post #791

So Twitter was at $70 per share a year ago. So what? Jack Dorsey was CEO a year ago, too. The share price was $33 less than a month ago. But, despite an absolutely incredible roller-coaster news cycle, things have been definitely trending down at Twitter ($33/share last month), which was reflected in its share price. The current executive team (and Dorsey) had wasted time focusing on things that didn't matter instead…

A company is not a bag of potatoes in the market to sell at the whims of the highest bidder. Here is what would be looking after their fiduciary duties: The company had a loss of 200 million dollars this year. Was only profitable 2 years out of its 16 years of existence. The board should state that Twitter in the hands of Elon Musk, could jeopardize its current unique and somewhat also precarious, place in social med…

> A company is not a bag of potatoes in the market to sell at the whims of the highest bidder.

That's exactly what it is. Stocks trade on an open market. Twitter went public. They chose to become a commodity. That's how commodities work.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#903

Let's ignore personality and societal issues for a moment and look at the value proposition. The 'best and final offer' of $54.20 per share is just too low to be acceptable for major investors. Just over year ago, Twitter shares traded at about $70 per share. Musk's offer is about 25% lower than last years peak. There's no reason to assume Twitter shares can't reach the same levels ever again, nothing much has change…

> There's no reason to assume Twitter shares can't reach the same levels ever again but it depends on how far that "again" is. If you bought at $33 a month ago, you'll be now getting a 60% return. You can put that in another less risky investment and still have a very healthy return over the next 5 years, say 5% , less than the historical sp500 rate, you'd get to ~$69. So if Twitter gets back to $70 in five years Mus…

Is $70 in five years drastically different than $50 today? We've had what, 8.5% inflation in the past 12 months?

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#904

This is exactly why individuals should not be allowed to have tens (let alone hundreds!) of billions of dollars in wealth - they become all-powerful and too easily subvert the will of the people. They become their own ruling class, which is unacceptable in a functioning democracy.

Shouldn’t be allowed? What’s the magic number the government will stop allowing one to accrue wealth?

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#905
What he certainly has produced already is a lot of attention, now, if he can't buy up this specific platform at his final bid maybe a dump and a 51% will follow ... whatever the case he got an extraordinary amount of people in and outside of TWTR discussing his intentions and captured hopefully some imaginations so in the end if nothing succeeds in terms of an acquisition he can at least effectively leverage this huge attention to jump start a new platform.

I'm not for obscenely wealthy single individuals i.e. 'oligarchs' sponsoring "open source free speech platforms" but I welcome the mainstream opportunity for stirring up the dead end (social dilemma) in which social platforms find themselves (from out-of-spiral censoring ("moderating") to basically uncontrolled anon image boards) I guess from an engineering perspective sensible new solutions are very much needed.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#906
post #580

> "if my offer is rejected i will reconsider my ownership in twitter." Thats an immense amount of selling pressure on the stock... This is a threat. He's negotiating with a gun to their head.

To me, the main message is that he wasn't really serious about Mars at all, or even about SpaceX, or Tesla -- never mind global climate catastrophe . Were I a Twitter stockholder I might perceive a different emphasis.

>To me, the main message is that he wasn't really serious about Mars at all, or even about SpaceX, or Tesla -- never mind global climate catastrophe.

What are you talking about? He literally offered up the Tesla patents to anyone who wants to use them: https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-y...

And:

>On June 12, 2014, Tesla announced that it will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use its technology. Tesla was created to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport, and this policy is intended to encourage the advancement of a common, rapidly-evolving platform for electric vehicles, thereby benefiting Tesla, other companies making electric vehicles, and the world. These guidelines provide further detail as to how we are implementing this policy.

https://www.tesla.com/legal/additional-resources#patent-pled...

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#907

I bet some of those who advocated "it's a private company, it can deplatform whoever it wants" are probably re-thinking their stance on deplatforming from a major social media.

Why would you assume that? If Elon buys twitter and starts banning everyone with pronouns in their bio I think that would be bad and stupid but it wouldn't be a free speech issue. People would just go elsewhere. Everything would be fine.

> it wouldn't be a free speech issue

It really hinges on what you mean by the phrase "free speech" when there is no clear context.

It is true that in the context of US lawmaking, the free speech rights specified in the 1st Amendment are in play.

But there is the concept of free speech outside that context also. For example the editors of a newspaper being inclusive of viewpoints in the "Letters to the Editor" section or a radio show being inclusive of viewpoints from callers or a website operator being inclusive of viewpoints in public comment sections.

I think there is value in advocating for inclusiveness in those (and other) contexts and labeling that idea "free speech" but I don't think it has to be "absolutely no moderation or restrictions". There is room for an editorial policy in those places and there is room to criticize any particular policy that some entity might put in place as not being supportive of "free speech" even when there is no 1st Amendment context in play.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#908

So Twitter was at $70 per share a year ago. So what? Jack Dorsey was CEO a year ago, too. The share price was $33 less than a month ago. But, despite an absolutely incredible roller-coaster news cycle, things have been definitely trending down at Twitter ($33/share last month), which was reflected in its share price. The current executive team (and Dorsey) had wasted time focusing on things that didn't matter instead…

Everyone currently holding $TWTR believes that the true value is greater than the current price. To make a successful hostile bid, you need to pay not just "more than the current price", but "more than the holders of 50% of current shares believe the company to be worth". Usually bidders use analyst price targets to guess at the distribution of holders' internal price targets. This is what makes it so difficult, and…

Goldman Sachs's price target is 30, while their analysts think the offer is too low.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#909

So Twitter was at $70 per share a year ago. So what? Jack Dorsey was CEO a year ago, too. The share price was $33 less than a month ago. But, despite an absolutely incredible roller-coaster news cycle, things have been definitely trending down at Twitter ($33/share last month), which was reflected in its share price. The current executive team (and Dorsey) had wasted time focusing on things that didn't matter instead…

Everyone currently holding $TWTR believes that the true value is greater than the current price. To make a successful hostile bid, you need to pay not just "more than the current price", but "more than the holders of 50% of current shares believe the company to be worth". Usually bidders use analyst price targets to guess at the distribution of holders' internal price targets. This is what makes it so difficult, and…

The value is based on recent sale prices, not peoples opinions no matter who they are.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#910

Let's ignore personality and societal issues for a moment and look at the value proposition. The 'best and final offer' of $54.20 per share is just too low to be acceptable for major investors. Just over year ago, Twitter shares traded at about $70 per share. Musk's offer is about 25% lower than last years peak. There's no reason to assume Twitter shares can't reach the same levels ever again, nothing much has change…

lolololol

made my day

Unprecedent QE and pandemic induced highs.

Picking last year as an anchor.

Twitter's last true price was $36 (Feb 202)

I think you guys are high

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