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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#901

Post by loveistheanswer »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #836
hedora wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. The US is apparently already at ~50% antibodies, not counting vaccination. So, there’s a floor on the upside of the vaccine: It did no more than halve deaths. We’re in the middle of a surge, and it looks like most of the remaining 50% will end up catching covid before being vaccinated, so the percentage saved by vaccination will continue to drop. The ideal strategy without hindsight was conventional wisdom: Pro…

> The ideal strategy without hindsight was conventional wisdom: Protect the vulnerable and stiff upper lip for the rest. China, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand used strict lockdowns to eliminate community spread, and then largely opened things up again. People in those countries have been able to live much more normal lives than people elsewhere during the pandemic. With hindsight, that was clearly the correct str…

2/4 of those examples are affluent island nations with low population densities.

Another one of those examples has been actively censoring covid information from the start, and thus cannot be trusted.

As for Vietnam, it is an interesting case, and we don't have enough data to rule out cross reactivity or other factors playing a role.

Extrapolating these data points to the entire world with wildly varying sociological, biological, environmental, and countless other factors and saying this is clearly the correct (and implicity achieveable) strategy for all 8 billion people on the earth is at best hypothetical.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#902

Post by 5cents »

haswell wrote: post #884
blub wrote: post #821

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Now, your risk of dying either from vaccination or Covid19 depends on various demographic factors not accounted for in my math above. But, nonetheless, the risk of dying from the J&J vaccine is really, really, really tiny." Unless this is a repeat of AstraZeneca, where many were lamenting the interruption of vaccination and calculating the risk for the entire population of people injected with AZ. Meanwhile, in some…

> the risk of dying from the vaccine for young women was higher than the risk of dying from the virus Do you have a good source you'd recommend for this? I couldn't find this bit of info from the first few articles I skimmed. > After the concerns about AZ turned out to be justified and AZ being banned for certain age groups you'd think that people would get a clue about unconditional vaccine cheerleading. Who is unco…

In Norway:

Women The astrazeneca vaccine was put on hold, if not, it's not hard to imagine the number of fatalities surpassing the number of covid-19-related deaths, even when ignoring comorbidities

[0] https://www.fhi.no/en/id/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/dai...

[1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104882

[2] https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/GaOr3l/monica-aafloey-hansen-54-...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#903

Post by dawnerd »

Honestly I think they should have had their meeting before telling the public. It seems unnecessary to pause it before figuring out if its worth it unless theres something else they're not telling us, which in that case it's also hurting trust in the system.

No matter what they come back with, the JnJ vaccine is done. We might as well start shipping them out to other countries that desperately need them, especially if we supposedly have enough mrna vaccines coming for everyone.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#904

Post by mirthflat83 »

jerf wrote: post #506
AlimJaffer wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Medical professionals are often taught these days that aspiration is not necessary for IM injections, particularly in commonly used sites such as the delts. From the CDC [1]: Aspiration before injection of vaccines or toxoids (i.e., pulling back on the syringe plunger after needle insertion but before injection) is not necessary because no large blood vessels are present at the recommended injection sites [1] https:/…

"no large blood vessels are present at the recommended injection sites" That's a bold statement. Sure, no large blood vessels may be present at the recommended injection site on an average human , but it's well known there is more divergence in anatomy than they necessarily teach about in primary school, and vaccines are supposed to go in basically everyone.

Lol.. please comment after taking an actual human anatomy class

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#905

Post by CryptoPunk »

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

It's six bloot clots, and only ONE death, not six deaths:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ey2oowQWgAApGnK?format=jpg&name=...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#906

Post by [deleted] »

haswell wrote: post #884
blub wrote: post #821

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Now, your risk of dying either from vaccination or Covid19 depends on various demographic factors not accounted for in my math above. But, nonetheless, the risk of dying from the J&J vaccine is really, really, really tiny." Unless this is a repeat of AstraZeneca, where many were lamenting the interruption of vaccination and calculating the risk for the entire population of people injected with AZ. Meanwhile, in some…

> the risk of dying from the vaccine for young women was higher than the risk of dying from the virus Do you have a good source you'd recommend for this? I couldn't find this bit of info from the first few articles I skimmed. > After the concerns about AZ turned out to be justified and AZ being banned for certain age groups you'd think that people would get a clue about unconditional vaccine cheerleading. Who is unco…

[deleted]

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#907

Post by hnick »

da_big_ghey wrote: post #726
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

But you are having conflate for deaths from each of things. Rates in dying are not homogeneous in J&J vax versus corona. J&J vax maybe is received by many younglings who are not risking death so much from Corona for benefit of old. It is not yet being known for if J&J vax is having any greater risk for older people or younger people. So calculus is maybe not so simple. If I are healthy young person maybe it is not a…

Also if you live somewhere like Australia or NZ which is vaccinating but has largely wiped out community COVID. It makes sense to have a bit more caution in such places as long as the mRNA vaccine can still be used. Australia suspended the AstraZeneca vaccine for that reason, but I believe we're using it again now after some analysis.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#908

Post by frashelaw »

dheera wrote: post #736
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

Why is everyone worried about blood clots, and not that the J&J vaccine has a crap-tastic efficiency of 66.3%? Would you want the chef at your local takeout to be vaccinated to 66.3% efficiency? or 94%? Why was this vaccine even approved, instead of just having J&J produce the same vaccine Pfizer and Moderna are making, which would be in the best interest of the world? Is this some utterly idiotic capitalism bullshit…

> Why was this vaccine even approved, instead of just having J&J produce the same vaccine Pfizer and Moderna are making, which would be in the best interest of the world? Is this some utterly idiotic capitalism bullshit that prevents J&J from making a 94% vaccine as well?

Exactly. There should be no place for vaccine profiteering, especially now that we have two extremely good vaccines. But in the interest of pharma profits, instead of cooperatively manufacturing the best vaccines, unburdened by patent hurdles, instead we have massive amounts of public funding going to pharma corps so that they can make profits off this medical crisis. Truly shameless.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#910

Post by bscphil »

dragontamer wrote: post #863
tacitusarc wrote: post #734

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6 obvious deaths that we're aware of. The risk of the vaccines is in their novelty and morbidity. An abundance of caution is required in this instance. It would be very bad to discover that there's a vanishingly small chance of blood clots within the first 3 months but a significant chance when paired with other events over the following decade.

> 6 obvious deaths that we're aware of. 1 death. The other cases are severe blood clotting but still alive by my understanding. That's literally one-in-6-million chance of death with regards to this blood-clotting issue. A vanishingly smaller chance than the 1-in-40,000 (or 150-in-6-million) a healthy young person has of dying of COVID19. So 1 death, 5 severe reactions related to blood clotting. Definitely a cause of…

Three quick points:

You have to multiply the IFR by the odds that the person gets COVID to begin with. In countries where there's no community transmission (Australia) or in countries where it's possible to kill the virus just by vaccinating the at-risk population combined with shut-downs, the multiplier should be pretty small. Even in countries that have handled it badly, it still might be only a 1/3 or 1/2 chance of catching it. So as a young healthy person my chances of dying from COVID are probably less than 1/100000.

I bring this up because I think it misses the actual point. Even if the vaccine had a 1/100000 chance of death or major complications, I would still take it. Because my life is not the only one that matters. Killing the virus is likely (in this country) to require most people who are physically capable (including the young) of taking the vaccine. My taking on a 1/100k risk with the vaccine vs a 1/100k risk without the vaccine is worth it, because for most other adults, the risk is much greater than 1/100k if the population doesn't get vaccinated.

Fortunately, I don't think pausing J&J is necessarily the wrong decision, even given the argument I just made. AFAIK it's the least common of the three vaccines, and so there should not be many "missing" vaccinations that result from the pause. The fact that taking a risk is justified does not mean that pointless risk is justified.

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