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Microsoft is Dead

paulgraham.com

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Re: Microsoft is Dead

#91

Post by BrandonM »

I agree that Microsoft is on the decline, but I disagree that web applications will totally replace the desktop. It's still way too convenient to have hundreds of programs a mouse-click away, and to be able to fire up 50 of them at once on new hardware without any lag. It is true, however, that that desktop needn't be Windows anymore.

I agree that OS X has been partly responsible for converting people away from Windows, but equally responsible is a growing Linux community. Since Linux came out, it has been slowly gaining some of Microsoft's desktop market share, especially since Gnome and KDE have gotten more polished and Ubuntu made its number 1 bug Microsoft.

I was a bit disappointed to see no mention of open source software, because it is not Google Docs that is replacing MS Office, but Open Office. GIMP has been slowly replacing Photoshop since it came out, not Snipshot. Likewise with Firefox overtaking Internet Explorer, Thunderbird being the first to stand in for Outlook, and gcc has been the compiler of choice for years.

In summary, I agree that Microsoft is on the decline and that we are seeing software shift to the Internet, but I never think the desktop will go away. The number of desktops running Windows and other Microsoft software, however, is going to continue to decline. It's one thing to offer free software on the Internet alongside Google ads, it's another entirely to be able to install entirely free, ad-free software with no strings attached, which is an opportunity that the open source community has afforded us.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#92

Post by theoutlander »

BrandonM wrote: post #87
theoutlander wrote: post #84

Windows has its quirks, but it is still the OS regular users choose. Visual Studio (THE BEST PRODUCT FROM MSFT!) beats everything out there! Although, my startup is not using ANY Microsoft technology, I am using Windows to code! Unix is GREAT for server-side....terrible for client-side and Windows is GREAT for client-side, but terrible on server-side! Google owns search but they are losing focus, just like MSFT. Reme…

If you think that Unix is terrible for client-side, then I don't think you've been working in Linux for long. How about the ability to install any of 20,000 programs from a convenient package/portage/rpm directory for free in seconds? How about updating every single program on your computer, including the OS, and recompiling everything, with one command? And as for programming, whenever I'm working in Visual Studio,…

I do like the ability to install on demand! Why is Windows leading client-side? Because it is easy! I am speaking from an average users perspective. Not us! I have used VI and I love it! Visual Studio is NOT like notepad. I'm sorry but AFAIK, VI or Emacs cannot provide intellisense can it? I have used both environments for development and based on my productivity, I concluded that Windows is a better environment for ME. Ultimately, it is about getting the job done FAST and using what works for you. I have used freeBSD and it is definitely STABLE, but really not something I would like to sit and develop on. Think about the millions of END-USERS??? Windows is really the solution for them... at least for now. Although Windows has its issues, I think Microsoft has improved its product in many ways. Do you realize how hard of a problem it is to solve, making the OS secure and user-friendly at the same time? I like Windows, Redhat and freeBSD... I wish Windows stayed away from the Server market and likewise Redhat stayed away from the client!

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#93

Post by stevecla »

Micrsoft is very much alive and though Paul makes some great observations about the challenges that lie ahead this discussion seems to be centred on people who want Microsoft to be dead and why Microsoft is such a threat. That's the real challenge...changing years of negative sentiment. That's what I care about

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#95

Post by jmd »

Obvious, but necessary. The most obvious of ideas are often the hardest to articulate.

Google seems destined to become the world's most valuable corporation[1]. Who wants to be Pepsi?

To compete with Google, copy Google's game plan. Focus on search. Evolve to AI.[2] (An AI is something that can give me a useful answer to my question.) Organize the world's information. Everything else Google does is cover fire.[3]

What I'm really asking is, why can't I name a single pure play search company other than Google?

[1] Besides oil.

[2] http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/dyson05/dyson05_index.html

[3] http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000339.html

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#96

Post by shiv »

There have been multiple instances when the same grand declarations have been made and Microsoft has only survived and remain dominant.This is just the next cycle of competition. Microsoft is paranoid enough and this article makes the assumption that they have blinders on and while the move to web etc is happening people at Microsoft are twiddling their thumbs and will say please come and take our business away. Maybe they are in a good position to take advantage of these new paradigms. Of course there is a fight out there but declaring death is premature, significantly challenged, yes.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#97

Post by chris_l »

frobot wrote: post #86
flarosa wrote: post #79

Microsoft used to be my hero, ever since the day I turned on my first TRS-80 and saw the Microsoft Basic copyright notice. For 20 years Microsoft was my whole world. MS-DOS, old Windows, new Windows. DLLs, ODBC, IIS, and all the rest of it. Keeping up with Microsoft was a chore. I'd learn to program DLLs, and by the time I was good at it, they were pushing Active X. Or I'd learn to use named pipes, only to find that…

Java used to be my hero, ever since the day I learned it would manage memory for me, while still scaling to the heights demanded by the enterprise. For 10 years, Java was my whole world. Servlets, old EJB, new EJB, JSP, JDBC, Spring, Hibernate, JSF, and all the rest of it. Keeping up with enterprise Java was a chore. I'd learn to program EJB 1 and by the time I finally figured it out, they were pushing EJB 2. Or I'd…

So what's next? Shall I make the same joke on you using Common Lisp and the the user named pg can then pull up Arc...?

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#98

Post by jjrs »

Excellent post. Not only did you nail the growing feeling that Microsoft is gradually becoming irrelevant, but you gave the best explanation as to why that I've seen anywhere.

I think another reason is that younger people are more computer literate and more open to new OS's and software. Mom and Dad were intimidated by computers and just wanted the simplest, most common software (microsoft/IBM), which they'd learned to use at work.

Re: Microsoft is Dead

#99

Post by jjrs »

bartsimpson007 wrote: post #69

Paul, I have great respect for you. But I think you contradit yourself a bit when you say this "..everyone can see the desktop is over. It now seems inevitable that applications will live on the web—not just email, but everything, right up to Photoshop". That by itself is a accuate and I can agree with. But you go on to rant about how Apple has put MS on the run and how you fund people that use Mac etc etc. Don't yo…

He basically said that all they have is the desktop...but that even that market is getting chewed away too.

microsoft can be getting hit by web apps and competing desktops simultaneously...no contradiction there. He just chose to choose one as a bigger factor than the other, that's all.

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