This is hard for me to do because 1) I probably respect Musk more than any living engineer, 2) I can't stand the CHSRA and their incompetence, and 3) I'm arguing from my comparatively unsuccessful keyboard against someone who is in every way my superior when it comes to engineering and business, and I know I'm gonna be the one to look like a fool here. But I'm going to do it anyway and try as best as I can to avoid t…
But don't you think you're failing to account for cultural dependencies that arise as a result of travel possibilities? Of different types of travel altogether?
For example, a 45 min subway commute is average in NYC [1]; as a result, going 30 min on the subway to meet someone who lives an hour away is not a big deal whatsoever. Since Metrocard costs don't vary by distance or time, and you have 8 million people used to lengthly amounts of subway travel, inter-city friends and relationships are more varied and spread out over space. [2]
If we assume that the Hyperloop is _not_ a railroad, or an airplane, and will have different types of time/distance payoffs, then we would have to assume a different form of demand curve altogether. For example: Japan's high speed trains -- and most importantly, their extreme reliability (like, to-the-minute) -- make long-distance commute a completely viable mode of transit. When high-speed trains are so reliable, you can have 9 minute transfer overlaps between two different trains going hundreds of kilometers, expanding range due to the UX, so to speak, of travel. It's qualitatively different than just a faster Amtrak or a slower plane.
[1] http://www.capitalnewyork.com/sites/default/files/Embargoed%... [2] http://observer.com/2015/05/the-social-commute-how-the-big-s...