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IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

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Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#91
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think today's IBM ever planned to layoff 110k at once. Lay off 10k here, 10k there, call one a workforce restructuring, another "an innovation related rebalancing plan", blah blah blah. It seems highly unlikely to me that IBM would just up and lay off 110k workers. Ignoring any other issues, the political blowback and PR blowback they'd get from politicians would be huge right now. IBM doesn't want to get in…

their stockprice would make a big jump if they could manage to lay off 110k people. I think it would be a good thing, to streamline their operation.

>their stockprice would make a big jump

Assuming they has 110k people doing nothing much important. I rather doubt that. IBM isn't that badly managed.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#92
post #27
post #18

I think IBM should stop selling the ultra crap software that is selling right now like Websphere commerce and all the crappy enterprisey stuff. They really need something good to change and if layoffs are for the better, it's probably worth trying. If the plan is to keep this stuff going, it's gonna be bad.

Yes the most interesting revelation in Cringely's rumor was that IBM made software. Let's be honest: An big IT product is about 25 programmers and 25 diverse people (incl marketers, designers, accountants) working for 3-10 years. With this you make a GitHub, a Word, an IE. IBM could be owning the planet today. But no, they're in the business of hotels, golf, and conferences.

But this kind of thing does exist throughout IBM.

I work on a product that's pulled in >$2bn in revenue over the last 20 years. All with an average of 25 developers working on it. It's still going strong.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#93
post #18

I think IBM should stop selling the ultra crap software that is selling right now like Websphere commerce and all the crappy enterprisey stuff. They really need something good to change and if layoffs are for the better, it's probably worth trying. If the plan is to keep this stuff going, it's gonna be bad.

That's not really a solution to anything. Websphere is used and essential to lots of companies. They might hate the software but they'd hate hearing it being end-of-life'd even more.

With a company of IBM's size, there's no need to move people from Webpshere to some other project. You can shake out a few dozen engineers from anywhere without their managers even noticing.

Firing a few thousand bureaucrats would go a longer way toward improving product quality than ending product lines.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#94
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes the most interesting revelation in Cringely's rumor was that IBM made software. Let's be honest: An big IT product is about 25 programmers and 25 diverse people (incl marketers, designers, accountants) working for 3-10 years. With this you make a GitHub, a Word, an IE. IBM could be owning the planet today. But no, they're in the business of hotels, golf, and conferences.

They do make many billions profit on software every single quarter. Who cares if the market is not very sexy? If you think there's only 25 people working on Word, I think you're off by an extremely large margin.

They make billions by corporate lobbying and political marketing

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#95
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am aware of what is meant by externality in economics however economics have a lot of blind spots, the consequence of technology being one of them which makes it an externality for exactly that reason.

ok so your point is that when technology creates long term downwards trends in the value of labor, anything that decreases the value of labor can be thought of as an externality? Redistribution can counteract this effect. If productivity increases but it also increases inequality, then there is some level of redistribution that will correct the inequality while making everyone better off (in the sense that the number…

I am from Scandinavia originally and know all about those models. They aren't as solid as you seem to believe.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#96
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IBM doesn't report its headcount in the US any longer, but in 2009 IBM had approximately 105,000 employees in the US, based on congressional testimony (via this article http://www.computerworld.com/article/2520399/it-outsourcing/... ). IBM has 431,212 employees worldwide (according to their 2013 annual report).

Trying to wrap my mind around the number -- 6 employees per 100,000 people worldwide is equal or higher than the number of physicians per 100,000 in Benin, Ethiopia, Niger, Burkina Faso, Central Africa Republic, Chad, Malawi, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Tanzania, Togo and Zimbabwe.

Very surprising given how easy it is to become a doctor, relative to getting hired by IBM. Combined with how appealing it is to live in those places, I too share your mind-wrapping-around-difficulty.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#97
post #29

Cringely definitely tends to... exaggerate but I have to say, getting IBM to even ballpark the number of people they're cutting is quite a feat. Remember this is the company that doesn't break down its head count for "competitive reasons" and prefers to stagger cuts so they don't trigger WARN in various jurisdictions.

Not sure of the original source, but a meme I've been seeing around the Internets lately goes something like

"The best way to get an answer to a question on the Internet, is not to ask the question, but to give a wrong answer and wait for people to correct you."

I'm not sure whether this was is what Cringely was up to, but if it was, well played indeed.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#98
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It would be a good thing because following the principal of maximizing profits is what is most socially beneficial, in the absence of externalities. "In the absence of externalities" is a pretty enormous qualifications -- very few real world exchanges have no externalities. > Such a framework exists and is called general equilibrium theory, which predicts that profit maximizing companies maximize social utility. It…

Externalities don't invalidate the entire theory, they just mean that adjustments have to be made in the cases where there are externalities. Hence my emphasis on the fact that a person losing their job is not an externality. I think you read my sentence as "(following the principal of maximizing profits is what is most socially beneficial) in the absence of externalities" where what I meant was "following the princi…

> Externalities don't invalidate the entire theory

The model is a simple deductive truth only when its premises -- which include actors that behave strictly according to the rational choice model (including perfect information) and the absence of externalities.

Neither of these is generally true in the real world.

> I think you read my sentence as "(following the principal of maximizing profits is what is most socially beneficial) in the absence of externalities" where what I meant was "following the principal of (maximizing profits (in the absence of externalities)) is what is most socially beneficial".

Both have the failing when being applied to the real world that they silently assume the assumptions of the rational actor model, including perfect information, and either way they present problems when used as a statement about a real-world decision in which externalities are present (though the exact nature of the problem differs between the two.)

> Classical economics with optimal "Pigovian" taxes can be thought of as a first order approximation to reality.

Not justifiably. I'd agree that approximating optimal Pigovian taxes is a worthy goal for government policy, but I don't think that there's any justification for assuming that actual government policies do that.

(In fact, given the distribution of power over government policy that would have to occur for that to be true, there's a pretty good reason to assume that its not even approximately true.)

Further, the behavioral model underlying classical economics are a tolerable first order approximation of reality in select markets, and useful baseline from which, via different circumstances in other markets which explain variation, to explain the behavior that occurs in other markets were they aren't good as such an approximation, which (aside from the prominence of ideologies which are justified by giving that model too much weight) is why its still taught.

> Also, you can produce any Pareto efficient outcome from free markets + redistribution.

Making many of the same assumptions with limited and occasional connections to real behavior that underlie your previous statements, starting with the rational choice model (including perfect information), this is true.

Not sure what your point is with it, or how it is supposed to be germane to the discussion.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#99
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He said "By the end of February all 26 percent will be gone"

It's not the end of Feb yet so how do you know he isn't right? Also there is still a chance they plan to get rid of a large number but are avoiding the negative PR but staggering it.

I agree that it's unlikely. Even if they would want to get rid of that number of people it would take years. Plus you would think they would try to sell off a part of the business instead of laying off so many people and paying out severance.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#100
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am aware of what is meant by externality in economics however economics have a lot of blind spots, the consequence of technology being one of them which makes it an externality for exactly that reason.

ok so your point is that when technology creates long term downwards trends in the value of labor, anything that decreases the value of labor can be thought of as an externality? Redistribution can counteract this effect. If productivity increases but it also increases inequality, then there is some level of redistribution that will correct the inequality while making everyone better off (in the sense that the number…

> ok so your point is that when technology creates long term downwards trends in the value of labor, anything that decreases the value of labor can be thought of as an externality?

Almost certainly, it is an externality in the strict economic sense, in that the "thing that decreases the value of labor" is almost certainly the product of investment decisions made by actors that are not the same set of people who are impacted by the reduction in the value of labor.

> Redistribution can counteract this effect.

Right, but in practice rarely does not, because what redistribution occurs is controlled by who has power over government, and power over government is disproportionately in the hands of those who have gained the most benefit from the economy, so those harmed by externalities and who would be most inclined, on a self-interested level, to seek redistribution are also the least likely to see their wishes reflected in government policy.

> If productivity increases but it also increases inequality, then there is some level of redistribution that will correct the inequality while making everyone better off (in the sense that the number of people earning more than X increases for all X). Not exactly a theorem, but a rough consequence of general equilibrium theory.

Its not really a "rough consequence of general equilibrium theory", whereas general equilibrium theory holds that without externalities (and with rational choice) a pareto-efficient result will be achieved, your conclusion requires the assumption (which general equilibrium theory does not support) that with externalities, a pareto-efficient result will not be reached, and further that the actual result will be such that there will exist an alternative result reachable by redistribution which features less inequality by whatever the relevant measure of inequality is, and is closer to being pareto-efficient.

But general equilibrium theory does not guarantee pareto-inefficiency with externalities, and if a pareto-efficient result is attained prior to redistribution, no redistribution can "make everyone better off" (since the definition of pareto-efficiency is that no one can gain without someone losing.)

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