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The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

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Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#91

I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. My sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history, naval architecture, navigation, commerce, and agriculture, in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain. John Adams US diplomat & politician (1735 - 1826)

Related quote by Yo-Yo Ma: It takes three generations to make a musician; the first to leave poverty, the second to go to school, and the third to master the instrument.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#92

Are wages purely determined by supply and demand though? There is a tale I remember about an economics professor who dumbfounds his class by pointing out that there is a huge surplus of economics students across the country who all want to work for Goldman Sachs. But the wages/bonuses don't fall to reflect the oversupply. I think the same is true for doctors and dentists. Do very few people want to be company executi…

the set of econ students who want to work at Goldman is not the supply: the set of econ students that Goldman thinks will make them money is the supply, and I bet very few of them are unemployed. similar: set of waiters who want to be actors is huge, set of known actors that a studio can say 'his face on the poster will bring in an extra 50 million cinema tickets' is miniscule. That's why all the waiters are acting f…

No. I don't believe a word of that. And your analogy undermines your own argument.

If you had said Michael Jordan or Lionel Messi ... but Tom Cruise? Really? Tom Cruise is a perfectly good Tom Cruise (a good actor) but a million other waiters could have been him.

There maybe Messi like geniuses in politics, banking, business but the idea that bankers are all paid Millions because "they are worth it" is to me ... laughable.

They are paid millions because they can get away with it.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#93
post #49
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also possible for there to be a shortage of qualified workers and a surplus of qualified workers...this is a point that people often miss. Qualified US workers have this annoying tendency to be unwilling to uproot their life and move to where the jobs are. Foreign workers coming from other countries don't have this issue...they're moving anyways, so they move where the jobs are. And hi-tech jobs cluster in certa…

How did you get from "It's also possible" to "both sides are right"? Is there actually a shortage of mobile qualified workers in the US? If so, what is your evidence?

That is a good starting point.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/11/w...

Uprooting one's life becomes more undesirable.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#94
Out of all those graduates, the number of which we are told is 2-3x the number of open positions, are really qualified to fill in those positions? Passionate about their field of study? Intended to get a job in that field in the first place, as opposed to getting a degree in something they can (afford)?

Our own experience is that even internships do not always yield good results. And the level of most applicants, many of whom are recent graduates, makes me sad. They manage to find work at some other company in the end, but only because we are in IT and IT is big at our place...

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#95
post #35

Well, there is a shortage of competent software engineers willing to sacrifice as much as corporate executives think they should, for what corporate executives think such people should be paid. In the same vein, there's a shortage of supermodels who want to fuck obese, unemployed men with halitosis and general poor hygiene.

I think you're wrong. I have the hardest time finding good engineers, we pay very well, we don't expect anyone to work crazy overtime, etc. Can we make this more concrete? What sacrifices do you think is being asked of competent developers? What pay do you think they are offered?

"Now, let's review some microeconomics. In a free market, it is almost axiomatic that the market always clears. That's a technical term that means that when somebody tries to sell something, if they are willing to accept the market price, they will be able to sell it, and when somebody wants to buy something, if they are willing to pay the market price, they will be able to buy it. It's just a matter of both sides accepting the market price." http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000050.html

I haven't seen any evidence here in the Boston area that contract rates have risen since I was a contractor 4 years ago. (I still get calls and invariably the rate is always <= what I got before.) One can surmise that there isn't a shortage in economic terms or that companies are unwilling or unable to pay true market rates. It may be true that there is a shortage of engineers a company can afford but that doesn't mean that there is a shortage of engineers. I.e. just because I can't buy gold at $100oz doesn't mean there is a shortage of gold.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#96

There is no shortage of bad programmers, there are plenty of medium programmers, it's also not that hard to find decent programmers. It's harder to find good programmers, but much harder to find great ones. The thing is that a great programmer can do 5X more than a good programmer, that can do 2X more than a decent one, that can do 2X more than a medium one. It's not just the number of features they can write in a gi…

I would describe that as simply "being professionals". No magic n-time programmers, just mature pros.

What you're describing as a great programmer is the equivalent of a chef in the kitchen, what you're describing as good programmer is a talented amateur cook, and your medium programmers are ordinary people that can cook an edible meal.

We have a shortage of professional developers, and a huge number of people who wouldn't get hired if they had the same skill level in a profession where there wasn't a shortage.

We've put lots of meat in seats to compensate for the shortage of mature, professional developers. Meat that can get away with incredibly immature, irresponsible and unprofessional behavior because, hey, who else are they going to get?

Fuck me, the ones that manage to build only slightly more shit than they break already get labelled "decent" programmers.

And it's self perpetuating, because if you combine the amateur playgrounds of most software departments with the systematic wage suppression you create a career perspective anybody with any sense would steer clear of.

With all those clowns calling themselves programmers, and the rest of us being tarred with the same brush, who the fuck wants to be a programmer when they grow up?

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#97
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did you get from "It's also possible" to "both sides are right"? Is there actually a shortage of mobile qualified workers in the US? If so, what is your evidence?

(not the OP) I wouldn't say it is definitively true, but evidence to look for is data showing that STEM jobs in some states are paid relatively less than in other states after controlling for cost of living/average local wages: for instance, this graph[0] of wage variance for STEM occupations by state, along with this table[1] showing the wage difference for STEM vs other jobs in each state. (They don't show the exac…

Cost of living isn't the only factor. Lifestyle quality is another, and not fully captured in the model you give because unlike money, people are non-homogenous. This may be more evident when the demand for a given field in a region is particularly small.

Consider [0] says that petroleum engineers are one of the highest paid STEM jobs, and [1] concurs. But a petroleum engineer in, say, North Dakota where there's an oil boom is likely going to have a higher salary than one in Hawaii even after adjusting for local wages. There are so few petroleum engineering jobs in Hawaii because it has no oil resources. If 0.1% of oil engineers are are willing to take a pay cut to move to Hawaii, then that small subpopulation may be enough to supply the Hawaii jobs market. (1 out of every 1000 jobs in ND is a petroleum engineer. We know that wasn't supplied by the indigenous population. While BLS doesn't have an entry for petroleum engineers in Hawaii, indicating that it's small.)

In a related vein, [1] points out the nuclear engineering is the highest paying job in Tennessee. This is probably influenced by Ridge National Labs and the three reactors in the state. The University of Tennessee offers a MS in nuclear engineering, so there's definitely a local production of people with those skills.

While Montana (no reactors, no nuclear research) doesn't have a BLS listing for nuclear engineers, which indicate that the demand for such is quite low. Low enough that secondary influences, like the desire to be near good fly fishing, or to move back to family in Montana, may be a bigger factor than cost-of-living.

Thus, regional salary variations, even when adjusted for CoL, may not give the estimate you're looking for.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#98
post #47
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good for you. I graduated from a college that was not top tier over a year ago, as a below-average student, and have yet to find any kind of development work that pays as much as I made delivering pizza while working my way through college. Not everyone has the same experience as you. Furthermore, this article is talking about the entire STEM domain.

What major?

Computer Science

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#99
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did you get from "It's also possible" to "both sides are right"? Is there actually a shortage of mobile qualified workers in the US? If so, what is your evidence?

That is a good starting point. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/11/w... Uprooting one's life becomes more undesirable.

As I read it, that proposes it's undesirable because there are few economic benefits for moving.

That would suggest that people are willing to move if there were stronger economic reasons, but the economic disparity across the US isn't high enough.

While the OP suggests that people aren't willing to move despite there being an economic disparity.

Thus, doesn't your link support the thesis the STEM shortage is a myth?

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#100
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CS in high school doesn't exist in most schhool you can't compare it with bio or math. Students may change their major more then once. What matters is the college graduation rates, companies looking for college grads in stem no a high school diploma.

I am quite ignorant about how US high school system works and that's one anecdote I had heard, so I apologize about not being able to carry on a meaningful discussion on that topic, but that's just an example, and my core points stands regardless: there are huge differences between various fields that fall under STEM, and they should not be thought about as a single bucket. That's certainly true beyond high school as…

That's quite true. With CS you can get hired right out of college but with other fields like bio and physics more schooling is required. I don't think a lot of students in the US want research positions (or qualify for them). So yes I believe that you're right it's an apples to oranges comparison.
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