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Bot wars - The arms race of restaurant reservations in SF

diogomonica.com

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Re: Bot wars - The arms race of restaurant reservations in SF

#91
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, in todays technological society, people who understand technology have advantages. I don't see why that is surprising, given the website you're commenting on. Ultimately this is not about technology, it's about economics. Surely the restaurant should raise their prices until not enough people want to book 2 months in advance to make bots and make this an issue. Or PAX should raise their prices so they don't sell…

Interesting 20 minute podcast on this topic: Kid Rock Takes On The Scalpers http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/06/25/195641030/episode-... Summary http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/06/27/196277836/kid-rock... 1) More shows. 2) Beat the scalpers at their own game. 3) Go paperless. 4) Don't sell the first two rows.

[deleted]

Re: Bot wars - The arms race of restaurant reservations in SF

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why I stopped buying things via auctions and stick only to "buy now" solutions. Sniper bots combined with friends bumping up prices on auctions means that a typical auction is a waste of money (price bumped up) and time (you can't win with 10 sniper bots aiming for the very millisecond the auction ends). Yeah, playfield got leveled because now everybody and their dog can use snipers (hey, where's the reward fo…

>Sniper bots combined with friends bumping up prices on auctions means that a typical auction is a waste of money This doesn't make sense, really. You enter the price you're willing to pay in an auction; what everyone else bids is irrelevant to you. If you are getting outbid, it's because someone is willing to spend more money on the item, bot or not. Don't bid low trying to get a deal. Bid what you are willing to pa…

I hate auctions now, too. Instead I just shop around for the best deal.

Re: Bot wars - The arms race of restaurant reservations in SF

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Just raise the price" is an appropriate response to demand for a commodity, but it's an inappropriate response to these scenarios. For example: PAX is trying to build a community event. The target demographic is not "wealthy people who love games", it's "people who love games" Changing the price results in a different convention. Similarly, a popular $20 restaurant can't double their prices to keep demand manageable…

If PAX or anyone else wants to intentionally price something so that the demand is larger than available supply, then in any case the "effective price" will be raised so that supply matches the demand. In effect, part of the "effective price" will be the monetary cost, and the other part of the price will be wasted time/emotions/connections/whatever that discrimiminates those who get the ticket from those who don't.…

It seems to me that the effective price would never fully bring it up to the money market level, and that difference is what makes it worthwhile to choose that strategy?

In the example of (a), there is no middleman, and the set of buyers becomes biased toward those who are dedicated over those with more money, because they intentionally distributed the effective price over multiple...payment channels (? I'm not much of an economist). Edit: actually there is a middleman; I recall the Wii launch, where I knew a guy who waited in line just to sell them on eBay. But still, there are "true fans" waiting who might be priced out at market value.

In the lottery style where tickets go on sale at x time and it's a free-for-all, some significant percentage of this round of sales will go to people that "deserve" them and get to enjoy a reasonable price with negligible non-monetary cost. Yes there will be some money lost to scalpers, but this can be reduced by forcing resellers into an official exchange channel where the original seller gets a cut.

Burning Man is an event where demand has exploded over the past few years and the supply cannot keep up. The organizers are also very concerned about getting the right people the tickets without jacking up the price. They have evolved a somewhat complex multi-pronged approach with lotteries, high-price presales, and a homegrown exchange system (STEP), where I believe they mandate reselling at face value.

edit: On second thought, I have neglected the cost of the people who expend time/effort and miss out completely. But, I still think there are benefits to pricing below market value with a sufficiently robust strategy.

Re: Bot wars - The arms race of restaurant reservations in SF

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

McDonalds.

Sure, that's one kind of restaurant. I've never heard of anyone trying to get a reservation there, though, and I'm pretty sure there's a direct relationship between the lack of demand for reservations, and the restaurant's ability to scale.

I like Chipotle better than most restaurants.

Re: Bot wars - The arms race of restaurant reservations in SF

#95
post #28

Since you can't RESELL your reservation, I think the answer is for the restaurant to black list exactly one sniper, maybe just for one year, and publicize doing so. Everyone else, who has been fighting to get a reservation for months the old fashion way, will not decry your loss. And I doubt very much you would risk getting blacklisted for sniping reservations off their site, since you appear to love the restaurant s…

I bet you could cancel a fake reservation one second before making a reservation on behalf of someone else. The effect would be the same as reselling.

Honestly though, I don't understand why this needs to be available over the web in the first place. If your restaurant is that posh, I'm sure you're not going to lose business by making people call in their reservations. You'll still need to have someone answering the phone anyway, so it's not like you're saving money by cutting an employee. Whatever meaningful benefit having an online reservation system might have provided is clearly lost in the absurdity of this situation.

Re: Bot wars - The arms race of restaurant reservations in SF

#96
post #69
post #67

In London, a "no reservations" system seems to be happening more and more with popular trendy/hip establishments. And it seems to work. Places like Burger & Lobster or Meat Liquor usually have very long queues at prime times.

Does anybody but the establishment really prefer such a system though? Setting aside time in my evening itinerary for queueing is not my idea of ideal. Probably only a matter of time until a side-business of people who are willing to wait in lines for you emerges.

iamexec.com

Re: Bot wars - The arms race of restaurant reservations in SF

#97

But surely this is a good thing - people will have to take part in an auction for a table. Want to eat at $POPULARRESTAURANT - you set a bid min and max and off you go. Its allocating scarce resource at the most efficient level.

It's possible that your patrons are not interested in bidding, or otherwise participating in libertarian economic fetishism.

Re: Bot wars - The arms race of restaurant reservations in SF

#98
post #3

Soon - "Auction Sniper now supports urbanspoon! First 3 reservations are free!" There's something frustrating about reading this. Perhaps its that a technological advancement that was supposed to make life easier is being capitalized on by a small group of technically competent people, shutting out the average user. I was thinking of going to PAX next year a few hours ago and decided to do a bit of research. For this…

Yes, in todays technological society, people who understand technology have advantages. I don't see why that is surprising, given the website you're commenting on. Ultimately this is not about technology, it's about economics. Surely the restaurant should raise their prices until not enough people want to book 2 months in advance to make bots and make this an issue. Or PAX should raise their prices so they don't sell…

Funny how the rational, clear-headed solution to economic problems always turns out to be "fuck poor people."

Re: Bot wars - The arms race of restaurant reservations in SF

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, in todays technological society, people who understand technology have advantages. I don't see why that is surprising, given the website you're commenting on. Ultimately this is not about technology, it's about economics. Surely the restaurant should raise their prices until not enough people want to book 2 months in advance to make bots and make this an issue. Or PAX should raise their prices so they don't sell…

Funny how the rational, clear-headed solution to economic problems always turns out to be "fuck poor people."

Rational perhaps, but not clear-headed. It assumes that people's dining behavior is a relatively linear, simple relationship heavily based on price, in a perfectly efficient market filled with perfectly efficient agents who have perfect information.

This is sort of like estimating the weight of a cow by assuming it's perfect sphere with a radius.

But this isn't entirely surprising. It's a common sentiment on Hacker News, where highly complex markets are reduced to incredibly simple single-variable, Econ-101-stye supply/demand curves. The poster usually then goes on to believe they've solved some major problem and wonders how everyone else can be so blind as to see such a simple solution.

But far be it to leave at just snarkiness. There are a whole slew of reasons why pricing as a lever cannot be used to fine-tune demand. Simply off the top of my head:

- Desirability of restaurants is heavily determined by their pricing context. That hole in the wall Thai place with the IKEA chairs is a great place to get $5 Pad Thai, and is always crowded. If they charged $15 the expectations for service, food, decor, location, etc, would be entirely different. Cannot simply pull the price lever.

- Desirability of restaurants is heavily determined by perceived authenticity. That Chinese restaurant where all the Chinese immigrants eat is popular with everyone because it communicates authenticity. It loses that authenticity if it prices itself out of reach of the people who lend it authenticity. Funnily enough, authenticity is frequently derived from the working-class everyman. Cannot simply pull the price lever.

- Restaurants are divided into price ranges, with not a lot of intermediate prices. This limits the "resolution" to which you can tune your pricing before you jump into the next range (which comes with expectations, authenticity, and other issues as above). There are demand cliffs moving from one range to the next - in other words restaurant pricing is not a continuous function and cannot be modeled as such. It's not even a "sorta kinda linear" curve.

- As price increases demand does not drop off linearly, or close to linearly. If you've got a line out the door for $5 burritos, a $6 burrito may cause only a small dropoff in customers, while a $7 burrito may cause your business to largely dry up. The holy grail of "that price where everyone who wants a burrito can get one without waiting very long" may not be achievable by simply pulling the price lever.

Pricing food is complex. Until the day where all food becomes standardized, commoditized, and we can treat our restaurants like we treat our nuts-and-bolts supplier, it will remain like this.

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