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Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

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Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#91

Post by adventured »

jbooth wrote: post #86
adventured wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gold standard worked in the US for about 170 years, which is part of why the US became the wealthiest nation in history: it had an extraordinarily trusted currency (green back = good as gold). Gold was worth $19 to $35 for 100+ years, and it worked, America had no problem growing dramatically. The US economy also had no problem growing fast during the 1990s, when the US Dollar was strong and had appreciated extre…

China also dramatically counters this notion. The Yuan has appreciated significantly (for a currency) over the last decade, while they've simultaneously gotten far wealthier. Real world calling. China pegs the Yuan at 6.22 Y / $1. It's appreciated by something like 3 cents over the last decade. How do they do this? They continually buy dollars with Yuan . Increase the supply of Yuan, decrease the supply of dollars. T…

Yes, real world calling.

The Yuan is not pegged to the dollar. The dollar peg was lifted in 2005.

What you mean is, it has appreciated by 15% over just the last 5 years. That's a significant value increase.

There has been dramatic inflation. Which is why a normal price for oil, despite plenty of supply, is now $85 to $90. Also why gold is now $1500 as normal. And also why grocery prices are at all time highs. And why housing prices, even in the supposedly destroyed markets, are up 50% to 100% over 15 years - drastic by any historical norm, particularly so in an economy with 14% real unemployment.

The Federal Government is borrowing at near zero because the global reserve currency is temporarily the US Dollar, and the Fed is buying about 85% to 90% of all new US Government debt because nobody else wants to touch it as they know the disaster that is coming. If you think borrowing rates for the US Govt. are going to stay this cheap for the next two decades, I'll take you up on that bet.

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#93

Post by Nursie »

adventured wrote: post #83
rtkwe wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're no longer on the gold standard because it lead to hoarding and economic inflexibility. It doesn't destroy wealth, however when gold is your currency and people hoard gold (for any reason be it economic instability or as an investment in the future price increases) the economy loses that amount of circulating money and moving money is what makes an economy work, not stagnant saved money. So by signing that execu…

Hoarding is beneficial under a gold standard. I make everybody else that is using the US Dollar standard richer if I hoard gold. It means they can buy more real goods with their dollar. This principle is demonstrated in the 'printing' of dollars, in which increased supply devalues the dollar and makes it possible to purchase less real goods (whether you're talking houses, real estate, gold, silver, platinum, or oil a…

"I make everybody else that is using the US Dollar standard richer if I hoard gold. It means they can buy more real goods with their dollar."

Conversely it means that everyone exchanging labour or goods for dollars gets less, and the incentive for those of you with dollars is to keep hold of them, thereby increasing your wealth while not actually producing any economic output.

Not so good from that angle is it?

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#94

Post by adventured »

rubyrescue wrote: post #84
adventured wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gold standard worked in the US for about 170 years, which is part of why the US became the wealthiest nation in history: it had an extraordinarily trusted currency (green back = good as gold). Gold was worth $19 to $35 for 100+ years, and it worked, America had no problem growing dramatically. The US economy also had no problem growing fast during the 1990s, when the US Dollar was strong and had appreciated extre…

Is the yuan backed by precious metals?

The statement was that appreciating currencies are a disaster. The counter point is that the Yuan has been appreciating for the last decade while China has simultaneously gotten much wealthier and maintained a fast growth rate.

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#95

Post by jbooth »

adventured wrote: post #91
jbooth wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China also dramatically counters this notion. The Yuan has appreciated significantly (for a currency) over the last decade, while they've simultaneously gotten far wealthier. Real world calling. China pegs the Yuan at 6.22 Y / $1. It's appreciated by something like 3 cents over the last decade. How do they do this? They continually buy dollars with Yuan . Increase the supply of Yuan, decrease the supply of dollars. T…

Yes, real world calling. The Yuan is not pegged to the dollar. The dollar peg was lifted in 2005. What you mean is, it has appreciated by 15% over just the last 5 years. That's a significant value increase. There has been dramatic inflation. Which is why a normal price for oil, despite plenty of supply, is now $85 to $90. Also why gold is now $1500 as normal. And also why grocery prices are at all time highs. And why…

The RMB was 'depegged' as a press release but is only allowed to float in a narrow range of 0.3%. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renminbi#Managed_float). Most of the increase in value from 2005 was a command decision from the CCP, not a result of market float.

At any rate, 15% over 5 years is less than 3% inflation. That's low inflation.

I don't think borrowing rates will stay this cheap over the next 2 decades because eventually the private sector will catch up to all the public jobs we've been shedding under socialist obama and GDP growth will resume, creating inflationary pressure again. But for now, and while we're either losing or barely holding even on employment over the next year or so, the interest rates will stay low. The second they touch 3% or 5% (normal inflation range), the fed can start jacking up their interest rate to compensate.

In short: It's ok, our currency is not going to collapse.

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#96

Post by oleganza »

Nursie wrote: post #64
oleganza wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Used iPhones have some liquidity and a market price. Should I be forced to not hold mine for a very long time? At what point the good becomes a "medium of exchange" in your view, so you allow yourself using force to extract it?

Force? LOL. Inflation is force, currency is force, but let me guess - property rights aren't a form of force right? Sorry, but bringing the use of force into this is the first sign I'm talking to a libertarian, and one that is not open to any form of reason. Hoarding the primary means of exchange (what BTC advocates would really like BTC to become) is a negative for society. As the hoarding increases so does the valu…

I was not saying a thing about property rights. The "force" appears when two people disagree and instead of trying to find a better argument, one of them takes out a gun and tells another one to shut up (instead of leaving the conversation).

I'm not advocating what you personally, or society should or should not do. I am simply pointing out that some people have gold and others want to take it away from them. My question is: what moral principle makes it valid for some people ("government") and makes it invalid for others ("thieves")? If the principle is "some voters voted some people via secret voting", then Hitler did nothing bad. Also, if the principle is "decision of majority" is moral, then more questions arise: on which territory do you define this majority? How can morality flip completely when 1 extra person joins another camp or gets to a legal voting age? Etc.

If you want to redistribute gold, it's up to you to show why it is justified to kick someone in a face because of "hoarding". And when you start explaining this, it will be you who comes up with some definition of property rights (maybe by saying "hoarded gold does not belong to you, but to society").

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#97

Post by AznHisoka »

omellet wrote: post #31
oleganza wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are no longer on the gold standard because the gold was confiscated under threat of 10 years in prison. Please explain how holding a piece of metal under mattress destroys someone else's wealth, so you can come to a person and extract gold by force. http://2012patriot.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/executive_ord...

When you have a growing economy but a fixed money supply, money will appreciate. When this happens, people will prefer to keep money rather than spend it, and you get deflation-induced recessions/depressions. See the latter part of the 19th century in the US for repeated examples of this.

What's wrong with that though? So people will end up not spending money unless it's very valuable to their lives. So less money gets spent on Angry Birds, iPad Minis, and games. Makes entrepreneurs have to up their game if they want people to spend money on them.

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#98

Post by Nursie »

oleganza wrote: post #96
Nursie wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Force? LOL. Inflation is force, currency is force, but let me guess - property rights aren't a form of force right? Sorry, but bringing the use of force into this is the first sign I'm talking to a libertarian, and one that is not open to any form of reason. Hoarding the primary means of exchange (what BTC advocates would really like BTC to become) is a negative for society. As the hoarding increases so does the valu…

I was not saying a thing about property rights. The "force" appears when two people disagree and instead of trying to find a better argument, one of them takes out a gun and tells another one to shut up (instead of leaving the conversation). I'm not advocating what you personally, or society should or should not do. I am simply pointing out that some people have gold and others want to take it away from them. My ques…

I think you have me confused with someone who gives a crap about gold, sorry. I don't. Gold is not a good currency, nor is anything else with a fixed supply, for a variety of reasons. I'm sorry if (controlled) inflationary, government backed currency makes you feel like someone is stealing your gold, but I can't take you seriously - you're such a delightful caricature!

Also your Godwin (democratic taxation = Hitler) is just hilarious.

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#99

Post by willholloway »

adventured wrote: post #79
oleganza wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a single rational standard of what's "productive" and "not productive"? Should you have moral right to enforce this standard upon everyone around you? If millions of tourists make millions of pictures of Eiffel Tower an buy millions of cameras and iPhones for that - is it productive? Should they be prevented from buying cameras and instead "invest" money in something more "productive"? My answer to everyo…

willholloway: Hoarding does not make us all poorer. Your blanket statement is false. If you're living in a country with a gold standard, and that currency appreciates, it means you can purchase more real goods, not less. China's economy has seen its currency appreciate for the last decade, while they simultaneously get far richer. The same principle was demonstrated by the last manufacturing powerhouse: the USA. If I…

Yes, the value of the circulating currency is increased but demand and economic output is suppressed.

Re: Bitcoin rises from $14 to $40 in two months

#100

Post by adventured »

jbooth wrote: post #95
adventured wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, real world calling. The Yuan is not pegged to the dollar. The dollar peg was lifted in 2005. What you mean is, it has appreciated by 15% over just the last 5 years. That's a significant value increase. There has been dramatic inflation. Which is why a normal price for oil, despite plenty of supply, is now $85 to $90. Also why gold is now $1500 as normal. And also why grocery prices are at all time highs. And why…

The RMB was 'depegged' as a press release but is only allowed to float in a narrow range of 0.3%. ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renminbi#Managed_float ). Most of the increase in value from 2005 was a command decision from the CCP, not a result of market float. At any rate, 15% over 5 years is less than 3% inflation. That's low inflation. I don't think borrowing rates will stay this cheap over the next 2 decades beca…

I agree the USD is not going to collapse. It's going to continue to devalue at an accelerating pace, as it becomes increasingly less of a global reserve standard.

Interest rates on US debt will climb from here forward.

The Fed will increase its rate of debt monetization as the US economy flails, likely from $85 billion per month up above $125 billion per month in the coming year.

The Fed will also never be able to actually unwind its portfolio, as Bernanke has begun admitting.

The dollar will have a severe crisis of confidence over the next decade, but it won't collapse.

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