Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems • Hacker News Board

Re: Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems

#91

Post by jacoblyles » Sat, Jan 26, 2013, 6:45 PM UTC

specialist wrote: post #44

ilaksh wrote: post #23

Feedback and data related to your actual goals is key to achieving anything, and of course education and health should be targeted, but a bigger underlying problem is the structural inequality causing a constant lack of resources for many countries and communities. The fact that Mr. Gates ignores this leads me to believe that he thinks that the grossly unequal distribution of resources is the result of some process t…

I agree with what you say. What bothers me about the Gates Foundation is their education agenda. Their priorities reflect a naive reductionist worldview akin to Rudyard Kiplings' Just So Stories. MEASUREMENT I'm confounded by the emphasis on Taylorism ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management ) and privatization, and by extension the emphasis on teacher performance. Make a list of all things wrong with pub…

Monopolies are bad. Public monopolies are worse. Public monopolies whose unionized workers have a lock on the electoral system are even worse. All of these are progressively further removed from the incentive to serve their customers - the students.

Re: Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems

#92

Post by rooshdi » Sat, Jan 26, 2013, 6:45 PM UTC

technoslut wrote: post #51

dos1 wrote: post #31

I don't get the negativity in this thread. Bill Gates is trying to solve hard problems and people here are complaining. Sure, they may not be the problems that you think are most important, and I'm sure the foundation is making missteps along the way and wasting some money. But his message in this article is a good one I think: > The process I have described—setting clear goals, choosing an approach, measuring result…

>I don't get the negativity in this thread. Bill Gates is trying to solve hard problems and people here are complaining. I respect Bill Gates and think his cause is noble but they are partly childish because of the idealism and the hopes to cure disease. ilaksh's post on this thread is part of the reason why though I wanted to reply to your post instead of doing so to his. It will be far more controversial though. Da…

While I agree there needs to be a responsible approach to population growth, there is research which indicates improved education results in reduced reproduction rates, increased economic growth, and better overall health. [1]

While you may view Bill's idealism and hopes as childish, the fact he's trying to optimize the measurement process of human progress shows an awareness and openness to adapt as the information changes. This is crucial to ensuring resources are continually distributed efficiently as our understanding evolves.

Are we humans selfish to some extent? Sure, but we're trying to live in an existence out to kill us. What can we do but fight?

[1] http://www.sciencemag.org/content/333/6042/587

Re: Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems

#93

Post by notahacker » Sat, Jan 26, 2013, 6:46 PM UTC

DLWormwood wrote: post #73

technoslut wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I don't get the negativity in this thread. Bill Gates is trying to solve hard problems and people here are complaining. I respect Bill Gates and think his cause is noble but they are partly childish because of the idealism and the hopes to cure disease. ilaksh's post on this thread is part of the reason why though I wanted to reply to your post instead of doing so to his. It will be far more controversial though. Da…

> The natural question I asked is "Why are you having kids you can't afford?" The question wasn't asked during the piece and it's something that isn't asked worldwide. You are misusing the word “natural” there… It could be from no access to contraception or abortion, either due to lack of wealth or social precepts? Social mores that disparage men who don’t have kids? Lack of biological and statistical understanding o…

Having a family larger than you can consistently feed seems less crazy when you're in an environment where you'll be totally dependent on your surviving offspring in your old age, and you can reasonably expect some of your offspring not to outlive you.

Re: Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems

#94

Post by notJim » Sat, Jan 26, 2013, 6:48 PM UTC

technoslut wrote: post #51

dos1 wrote: post #31

I don't get the negativity in this thread. Bill Gates is trying to solve hard problems and people here are complaining. Sure, they may not be the problems that you think are most important, and I'm sure the foundation is making missteps along the way and wasting some money. But his message in this article is a good one I think: > The process I have described—setting clear goals, choosing an approach, measuring result…

>I don't get the negativity in this thread. Bill Gates is trying to solve hard problems and people here are complaining. I respect Bill Gates and think his cause is noble but they are partly childish because of the idealism and the hopes to cure disease. ilaksh's post on this thread is part of the reason why though I wanted to reply to your post instead of doing so to his. It will be far more controversial though. Da…

There are a number of flawed assumptions here. The first one is that population growth is naturally unbounded, but that idea has been outdated for a long time. Population growth follows a logistic growth curve.

Another bad assumption you're making is that the West's population is growing rapidly, but it's not. In fact, populations in Western countries are barely growing, and often are only growing due to immigration, or due to higher birth rates among immigrant populations.

Finally, yet another bad assumption you're making is that we should limit population growth through draconian measures like… well murdering people, or allowing them to die unnecessarily. In fact, the best way to limit population growth is through education, better access to healthcare, and economic development. As people become more educated and financially successful, they naturally delay childbirth and have fewer children as a result. When people have access to health services like education, birth control and abortions, they can better make decisions about children.

You can google “overpopulation myth” or simply “overpopulation” to verify what I've written here.

Re: Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems

#95

Post by ctl » Sat, Jan 26, 2013, 6:52 PM UTC

technoslut wrote: post #51

dos1 wrote: post #31

I don't get the negativity in this thread. Bill Gates is trying to solve hard problems and people here are complaining. Sure, they may not be the problems that you think are most important, and I'm sure the foundation is making missteps along the way and wasting some money. But his message in this article is a good one I think: > The process I have described—setting clear goals, choosing an approach, measuring result…

>I don't get the negativity in this thread. Bill Gates is trying to solve hard problems and people here are complaining. I respect Bill Gates and think his cause is noble but they are partly childish because of the idealism and the hopes to cure disease. ilaksh's post on this thread is part of the reason why though I wanted to reply to your post instead of doing so to his. It will be far more controversial though. Da…

So basically: overpopulation is bad, therefore human death is a good thing, therefore curing disease is bad.

This argument is simultaneously (1) viscerally horrifying and (2) completely wrong.

It is wrong because curing disease does not increase population growth rate. Birth rate is extremely well-correlated with infant mortality rate, and pretty well anticorrelated with both life expectancy and quality of life. That's why the countries with the highest population growth rates also have some of the highest mortality rates. If you want to stop overpopulation, you should target common causes of death, especially those that afflict young children.

Which is exactly what Bill Gates is doing.

Re: Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems

#96

Post by thechut » Sat, Jan 26, 2013, 6:54 PM UTC

gesman wrote: post #78

Dear Bill Gates. Here's yardstick to measure residual value of your efforts: If you'd stop doing whatever you're doing, will the world continue benefit from your past efforts for ages to come? Compare "buying food for the hungry" and "teaching the man to fish" - which effort carry more residual value? You developed DOS, and then Windows. Even when you stopped - the world continued rolling with your software and build…

Could you elaborate on what it is he "can do"?

Also I'm not sure his creation of DOS and Windows really has much bearing on his more recent philanthropic efforts.

Re: Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems

#97

Post by zb » Sat, Jan 26, 2013, 6:55 PM UTC

rfrey wrote: post #46

zb wrote: post #43

He is not wrong, but there is also a certain danger in this approach that goes unremarked upon. It is often difficult to measure the outcome you actually desire, and a lot easier to measure some proxy for it. But attaching incentives to optimising some metric - making an intermediate goal the goal in itself - tends to make it an extremely unreliable proxy for the original worthy cause. We know that Gates is aware of…

"billions", "ruthlessly", "entirely counterproductive". Can you expand on this a bit? I haven't heard anything so firmly condemning of the Gates Foundation's efforts before, I'd value reading about it.

Well, to answer your specific question, see the link in my reply to tptacek.

But I want to clarify that I am not condemning them (and I wasn't trying to use the term "ruthless" in a pejorative sense, so it was probably a poor choice). I am simply pointing out that if you want to use the engineering method to effect change on a global scale - and I think that is absolutely the right approach - then you first need to make sure that it is good engineering. Gates, who by all accounts is an excellent engineer, is (if the quote is genuine) aware of the problems with software metrics. It is less clear whether he is carrying that scepticism over to the use of other metrics, and that is my concern.

Re: Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems

#98

Post by dubya » Sat, Jan 26, 2013, 6:56 PM UTC

lenkite wrote: post #48

I must say the comments here are extremely cynical and somewhat disturbing. Speaking as a citizen from India, (still third world despite our progress), I can say that the Gates foundation has done a turn of good in our corner of the world. You might dislike Microsoft the corporation, but Gates as a philanthropist deserves praise.

I am pleased to hear that Gates's money is doing good somewhere in the world. In the US, I think, the Gates foundation has a much higher profile in education reform, which is very controversial because it drags in all of the baggage of accountability, slipping standards, unions, privatization, big government, etc.

Re: Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems

#99

Post by kenjackson » Sat, Jan 26, 2013, 6:58 PM UTC

zb wrote: post #43

He is not wrong, but there is also a certain danger in this approach that goes unremarked upon. It is often difficult to measure the outcome you actually desire, and a lot easier to measure some proxy for it. But attaching incentives to optimising some metric - making an intermediate goal the goal in itself - tends to make it an extremely unreliable proxy for the original worthy cause. We know that Gates is aware of…

In general social policy is hard. Really hard. In part due to some of the things you talk about.

While the Gates Foundation did waste time and money on the small schools initiative, but in some ways I view it as a model for how social research should work.

They had a theory and some supporting data. They tried to implement a program to optimize it and measured the results. And while they may have been ruthless in driving this, they were equally ruthless with their measurement. They didn't hide their results. They came out and said, "we are disappointed with our results". http://www.gatesfoundation.org/speeches-commentary/Pages/bil...

If more social research was done in this way and was as transparent I suspect we'd make some better progress in education. But unfortunately, most people have taken sides -- the issue has been politicized. And so outside of groups like Gates, the data no longer matters.

Re: Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World's Biggest Problems

#100

Post by MichaelGG » Sat, Jan 26, 2013, 7:00 PM UTC

technoslut wrote: post #68

MichaelGG wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why exactly does Earth itself have any intrinsic value greater than humans? We evolved to expand; we're machines to replicate DNA. I'm not sure how you can state that we now must be custodians and not expand more. I know you "can't get an ought from an is", and I can come up with several utility functions that have the effect of limiting humankind's impact, but I'm not sure there's any fundamental reason they're vali…

>Why exactly does Earth itself have any intrinsic value greater than humans? If you'd like to be arrogant about it then that's fine. However, we revolve around and are dependent on animals, insects and plants to provide us life. >We evolved to expand; we're machines to replicate DNA. You can expand as much as you want. Nature will fight back like it has with adaptive viruses and the Ice Age. >You may want to save the…

>You can expand as much as you want. Nature will fight back like it has with adaptive viruses and the Ice Age.

Ice Age? Can you point me to the theory that shows how Earth or "Nature" is somehow an entity that performs massive climate shifts in response to too-successful lifeforms?

There is no necessary balance in nature. It's a constant struggle and what you see just might be a somewhat stable state. If an actor in that system (like humans) finds a game-theoretic superior strategy, there's no fundamental reason why they won't "win" and destroy the rest of the ecosystem and go extinct. Plenty of other species go extinct all the time. That's nature.

Anyways, I'm not saying it's fine to kill elephants at all. Indeed, I find it disgusting, and it'd be fantastic if societies could figure out ways to ensure that poaching isn't a beneficial action. But I am pointing out there's no mandatory acceptance of any axioms that would generate an obligation to "take care of the Earth", whatever that means. And there's definitely no particular reason why a human killing elephants to feed his family is somehow invalid, whereas if lions do the same thing, it's OK.