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Fable and the end of the free lunch

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Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#91

Post by georgemcbay »

a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #63
josephg wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. Sometimes I wonder who the long term financial winners will be from the ai boom. It might be ram / gpu manufacturers. Or whoever cracks putting LLMs on asics.

It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. With the trillions of dollars that's going in through both investment and users, it's going to happen. I don't believe the human brain has fundamental magic that will make this impossible.

> It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically.

What makes you think if one or two AI labs can do this that the rest (including open model providers) won't be able to follow the same path a few weeks/months later?

Even if you believe in the "Singularity", and believe it is coming soon, I still don't see any reason to believe the Singularity will be... singular. There won't be one clear winner, the race doesn't get called as soon as the first person crosses the line.

None of the AI labs are showing any sign of pulling away to a monopoly or duopoly position, to the contrary the early large leads of OpenAI and Anthropic have all been evaporating.

AI has clear economic value. It still isn't clear at all how the providers of AI will capture that value in a moatless environment with the technology becoming rapidly commoditized.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#92

Post by nchmy »

ksh09 wrote: post #55
nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I'd be content if I could get the DS4 flash, luna, mimo level intelligence running on MY low-end hardware completely offline and bearable TPS, not otherwise.

this is the holy grail

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#93

Post by ericd »

ksh09 wrote: post #55
nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I'd be content if I could get the DS4 flash, luna, mimo level intelligence running on MY low-end hardware completely offline and bearable TPS, not otherwise.

It costs about as much as a cheap car to do this well, but it's attainable now, and qwen 3.8 seems to make it possible on a 5090.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#94

Post by thelastgallon »

a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #63
josephg wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. Sometimes I wonder who the long term financial winners will be from the ai boom. It might be ram / gpu manufacturers. Or whoever cracks putting LLMs on asics.

It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. With the trillions of dollars that's going in through both investment and users, it's going to happen. I don't believe the human brain has fundamental magic that will make this impossible.

The true followers (shareholders) of the AI messiah will be saved, everyone else is doomed.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#95

Post by janalsncm »

This is essentially the anti-Bitter Lesson lesson which I feel has become a bit of a thought terminating cliche lately.

The Bitter Lesson says that eventually general approaches which leverage more data and more compute will outperform the handcrafted rules and heuristics that humans add in.

However, it does not say what to do today about the problems of today. We can’t just wait around for 10x faster compute and 10x more data.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#96

Post by pianopatrick »

a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #80
a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. With the trillions of dollars that's going in through both investment and users, it's going to happen. I don't believe the human brain has fundamental magic that will make this impossible.

For the downvoters: What magic do you think the human brain has that makes it impossible to emulate acceptably?

It's not about the feasibility of the technology.

If "human brains become fully irrelevant economically" then that brings into question the entire premise of "share holders" and "financial winners".

What even are money, shares, stocks, and finance in a world where human brains are irrelevant economically? No one knows, but betting that "share holders" will be the winners is a highly questionable bet.

I would much more likely bet that "the armed group who manages to control and benefit from the AI through force" will be the "financial winners" more so than "share holders", who tend to not be terribly military minded at least in America.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#97

Post by tmp10423288442 »

geniium wrote: post #41
nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

ChatGPT literally released a major update of their realtime voice model a month or two ago, going from gpt-4o-level (generously) to gpt-5.5 level performance. So at least 2026-level performance was necessary to provide a really good experience.

I remember thinking the first ChatGPT realtime voice was science fiction, before the limits on its intelligence (particularly as mainline models advanced) became annoying. Perhaps we’ll feel the same way in a year or two - people have been claiming models are plateauing in practical usefulness every year, and they’ve definitely been wrong so far.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#98

Post by adrianN »

a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #63
josephg wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. Sometimes I wonder who the long term financial winners will be from the ai boom. It might be ram / gpu manufacturers. Or whoever cracks putting LLMs on asics.

It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. With the trillions of dollars that's going in through both investment and users, it's going to happen. I don't believe the human brain has fundamental magic that will make this impossible.

True AGI would upend society in such a way that I'm not sure that being a shareholder of anything would be meaningful. Perhaps being a pitchfork manufacturer is the winning play in this scenario.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#99

Post by CamperBob2 »

ksenzee wrote: post #86
josephg wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you need brain emulation to get superhuman intelligence?

Are you making a serious argument that superhuman intelligence is a plausible outcome of training LLMs on everything humanity knows so far? Or are you making the generic assertion that AGI is theoretically possible via means other than emulating the human brain? Because the latter is a strawman (nobody has asserted anything to the contrary), and I have seen no evidence at all to support the former.

Are you making a serious argument that superhuman intelligence is a plausible outcome of training LLMs on everything humanity knows so far?

Are you making a serious argument that it's not?

Because you'll need to explain leading-edge mathematics advances that have come from LLMs, among other things.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#100

Post by [deleted] »

rmast wrote: post #57

Most of the things I work on are at least security adjacent. At some point chatting with Fable inevitably leads to it thinking about the security related aspects, tripping the safeguards. Maybe Fable can do the same things better than other models, but having to tiptoe around to avoid tripping safeguards makes GPT 5.6 so much easier to work with that I don’t even bother with Fable (or Opus 5) now.

[deleted]
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