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What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

catalystneuro.com

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Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of my projects has an estimate of 3,000+ hours. It seems accurate. It has spent months working on it.

Around the clock?

Yes, with a few exceptions. It's much easier now that the five hour limit has been removed from codex.

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#92
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the costs didn't come down because they were able to add more lights and larger displays. People are a gas; they expand the fill the space they're in. If you give someone a big house, they'll fill it with crap. If you make food cheap, they'll eat too much, even when it harms their health. Making things cheaper usually just makes making them more prevalent. It's why computers are not faster than 20 years ago. Th…

Anyone not living paycheck to paycheck is just constantly gorging on fast food?

[deleted]

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20 years ago is about when SSDs came to consumer PCs. Which is the last time I remember thinking that my computer became faster than the previous one was when it was new (if by computer we mean the hardware combined with a mainstream up-to-date software stack)

Your computer may not feel faster than a 20 year old PC, but CPUs have gotten way, way faster. Compare the AMD Ryzen 7 9800X3D to the AMD A12-9800, you go from 4 cores to 8, and you double the power consumption. But it's not twice as fast. It's 10 times faster. Depending on the exact metric, it could be as little as twice as fast or as much as 1000 times faster, depending on the exact operations. On top of that memor…

I kind of hoped my point would come across more clearly. Obviously my current computer is faster than one from 20 years ago. But, it doesn't really react more quickly. It just does more: higher resolution video, advanced graphics, etc. The moment we add capability we rush to use it all up. This is not _always_ bad when it comes to computing, but I wouldn't mind if people in general had more restraint.

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#94
post #21

Jevons Paradox [1] > when technological improvements that increase the efficiency of a resource's use lead to a rise, rather than a fall, in total consumption of that resource. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox Las Vegas replaced the expensive incandescent lighting on the strip with cheaper to run LED equivalents. But the costs didn't come down because they were able to add more lights and larger dis…

> But the costs didn't come down because they were able to add more lights and larger displays. People are a gas; they expand the fill the space they're in. If you give someone a big house, they'll fill it with crap. If you make food cheap, they'll eat too much, even when it harms their health. Making things cheaper usually just makes making them more prevalent. It's why computers are not faster than 20 years ago. Th…

these things you are talking about are only true due to the unbelievably LARGE marketing ~propaganda~ spending

what you're saying reflects corporation tendencies

take away the propaganda, let people live, see how they react

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the 750 tok/sec GPT 5.6 Sol Ultrafast (via Cerebras), the many-1000 tok/sec Chinese models, and the 15000 tok/sec Taalas HC1, I think we're well on the way towards seeing that solved too. Combine the two, and yeah, wild ride incoming. What's especially bewildering to me is that translated back to raw bandwidth, even 15000 tok/sec is just like what, 75 KB/s? Extremely meager amounts of data, moving mountains. It…

One of my projects has an estimate of 3,000+ hours. It seems accurate. It has spent months working on it.

Can I ask what you are working on?

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the costs didn't come down because they were able to add more lights and larger displays. People are a gas; they expand the fill the space they're in. If you give someone a big house, they'll fill it with crap. If you make food cheap, they'll eat too much, even when it harms their health. Making things cheaper usually just makes making them more prevalent. It's why computers are not faster than 20 years ago. Th…

these things you are talking about are only true due to the unbelievably LARGE marketing ~propaganda~ spending what you're saying reflects corporation tendencies take away the propaganda, let people live, see how they react

I'm not convinced. Propaganda only works when it relies on something that people are dispositionally inclined towards. eg: hating foreigners, calls towards group unity, etc.

You can't use propaganda to trick people into becoming experts at calculus, for instance.

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#97
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, computers are definitely the same speed as they were 20 years ago.

20 years ago is about when SSDs came to consumer PCs. Which is the last time I remember thinking that my computer became faster than the previous one was when it was new (if by computer we mean the hardware combined with a mainstream up-to-date software stack)

You had SSDs in 2006? Was I missing out?

I don't think I had any in my builds until 2014ish

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#98
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone not living paycheck to paycheck is just constantly gorging on fast food?

I don't mean to be glib, but for the most part, yes. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/11/well/child-obesity-un-rep... Obesity is nearly everywhere. In the old days, "prosperous" might have been a euphemism for "fat," as only the rich could afford to be fat. Now even people who are "food insecure" are often quite fat. Some of this of course is due to food quality, but ultimately there are no starving fat people.

> ultimately there are no starving fat people

It has been credibly hypothesized that fat people are indeed malnourished. What would you do if all your food sources were appallingly lacking in essential nutrients and the sorts of things your body craved in order to get fed? You would begin to eat more, and more and more, seeking to satisfy those cravings for nutrition. But if nutritional cravings aren't satisfied, you're still reaching for those foods, because they are faking, very accurately, the tastes and feels that you would get from something that's nutritious and good for you.

So, it stands to reason: the more fake nutrition available to someone, the more they will try and eat, and get fatter. On the other hand, if we're eating real food, perhaps those cravings will be easier to satisfy without overindulging?

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#99

Personally I still see LLMs as very advanced search engines which lack intelligence. To me it seems that the cost of getting data is reduced by LLMs, not the cost of intelligence. I mean: we tell the model what we want to achieve, and the model responds with the right data in de form of code in seconds. That's why 'stackoverflow programmers' will have a hard time competing with LLMs but engineers are still needed for…

I think this viewpoint fails to understand what "intelligence" is. The idea must be that intelligence is some special thing that only humans have. So when machines couldn't do jack s... we said "it's the Turing test". When machines blew through the Turing test we said "that was just prediction..not really intelligence, that's different". It's not different. The delusion humans have is that intelligence is special and…

Until you contribute something substantial to humanity that is novel, you ought to reduce the tone of confidence.

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mean to be glib, but for the most part, yes. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/11/well/child-obesity-un-rep... Obesity is nearly everywhere. In the old days, "prosperous" might have been a euphemism for "fat," as only the rich could afford to be fat. Now even people who are "food insecure" are often quite fat. Some of this of course is due to food quality, but ultimately there are no starving fat people.

> ultimately there are no starving fat people It has been credibly hypothesized that fat people are indeed malnourished. What would you do if all your food sources were appallingly lacking in essential nutrients and the sorts of things your body craved in order to get fed? You would begin to eat more, and more and more, seeking to satisfy those cravings for nutrition. But if nutritional cravings aren't satisfied, you…

>What would you do if all your food sources were appallingly lacking in essential nutrients and the sorts of things your body craved in order to get fed?

When I hit 300 lbs I might suspect there was a flaw in my reasoning.

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