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Critical Minerals: Reducing U.S. import reliance with substitution and recycling

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Re: Critical Minerals: Reducing U.S. import reliance with substitution and recycling

#91

Post by ColdStream »

nemomarx wrote: post #55
margalabargala wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point made by the parent comment should not be taken to mean that the Trump administration strategically accomplished the aforementioned goals, just that they were, in a vacuum, accomplished. If you're saying that it seems to you that the tactical goal was accomplished at the expense of the broader historical strategy, I would respond that yes, it does seem that way.

I'm also personally a little skeptical that the current administration would actually go to war with China over, say, Taiwan or control of the South Sea or so on. Maybe they are keeping that in mind, maybe they're just isolationist in general? Whether the admin would have done anything to Iran without being asked by Israel is a big open question for me here.

It is all starting to feel like a stalemate between the US and China, each hoping the other fails from their own internal issues before it comes to actual battle.

Re: Critical Minerals: Reducing U.S. import reliance with substitution and recycling

#92

Post by ColdStream »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #76
1970-01-01 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

War with China has been on the roadmap for 10+ years.

Yeah, but not for 2030. IIRC, Xi has demanded that China's military be ready to take Taiwan in 2027.

True but it also looks like a Hail Mary shot for them. If they make the move and it doesn't work, the internal pressures from the people could topple a lot of the power structure.

They probably won't move until they have a very decent chance of pulling it off but they are running out of runway to build that force.

Re: Critical Minerals: Reducing U.S. import reliance with substitution and recycling

#93

Post by ColdStream »

znort_ wrote: post #29
seydor wrote: post #5

Why is everyone preparing for war so hard

because the empire sees no other way but war to maintain dominance, scratch that, avoid dissolution. so folks all over the world prepare, and rightly so if u ask me. spoiler alert: the cozy days of the colonial west are over. it will all be over soon, and one can hope but i don't guarantee surviving will be necessarily a lucky draw. btw, this would explain fermi's paradox pretty well.

I have always figured the fermis paradox is that civilizations run out of resources before they can become large scale sustainable. Having wars over a shrinking world would accelerate this however.

Re: Critical Minerals: Reducing U.S. import reliance with substitution and recycling

#94

Post by ColdStream »

georgemcbay wrote: post #23
seydor wrote: post #5

Why is everyone preparing for war so hard

> Why is everyone preparing for war so hard Unfortunately I think the actual reason is because they know (despite what they say in public) that climate change is a real and present danger, and the resource and migration wars are coming. If you look at everything that seems strange through this lens (see for example: Trump talking about how the US needs to take Canada and Greenland) it looks a lot less strange. There'…

Almost definitely this. It explains the build up of forces, signaling of land grabs, hardening of boarders and increase of surveillance. It is all about built a fortress.

There is a lot of dramatic stories in the climate change space but when you see the military's and actuaries around the world talking about the conditions of the coming decades in very matter of fact terms, that is why I worry. They are the level heads that are signaling to those in power, now is the time to harden defenses. Both external and internal.

There have been many Climate Risk Assessments by many countries that we only have little pieces of, but due to freedom of information requests and what bits we have are fairly grim.

Here in Australia there was a report that is still not public on this. But the more open politicians that have seen it said they had to change all their future plans and promises based on what the findings were. That we are moving towards a much more unstable and resource limited world.

As it has been termed by many militaries, Climate change is a threat multiplier.

I have said it for a long while now, in future we will welcome immigrants with open arms. Those arms being machine guns, rockets and drones. I really hope I am wrong but I can see many hermit kingdoms rising and they will loot others before they go hungry.

Re: Critical Minerals: Reducing U.S. import reliance with substitution and recycling

#95

Post by ceejayoz »

onlypassingthru wrote: post #86
ceejayoz wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russia-nato-arms-germany-wa... > Germany's defence minister is frank and plain-spoken, but also deliberate with his words and intention. When he talks about Russia, the future of the West and the possibility of another European war, the message however becomes stark: "Our experts say it can happen in 2029." > In remarks published Wednesday, Generalleutnant Christian Freuding, the insp…

> Russia may be ready to attack the alliance within five years. With what, sharpened sticks? Russia will soon only be left with rattling its nuclear saber as its once mighty military is left in ruins.

> With what, sharpened sticks?

Deniable, asymmetrical attacks?

Look what Ukraine did to Russia's air bases with a couple truckloads of drones.

Re: Critical Minerals: Reducing U.S. import reliance with substitution and recycling

#96

Post by luipugs »

gustavus wrote: post #24
seydor wrote: post #5

Why is everyone preparing for war so hard

A lot of the answe are reddit-esque throwaway answers and political shill bots, but for a more nuanced answer. For a long timeant people were brought up on the "End of History" idea. That after the Cold war mankind would all get together and sign kimbaya, that war as we knew it was over, sure there would be atrocities and "policing actions" that would be needed to stop some bad guys but everything was good wars of th…

The Ukraine war was far from the start of things. Wars were still happening in other parts of the world long before that.

As a wise man once said, we didn't start the fire. It was always burning since the world's been turning.

Re: Critical Minerals: Reducing U.S. import reliance with substitution and recycling

#98

Post by actionfromafar »

seydor wrote: post #61
robotnikman wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope its less because of war and more because its better to not be so dependent on other countries, similar to how Europe is trying to rely less on the US for digital infrastructure. I also feel like the boomers offshoring everything to China in the 70's is one of the reasons things are worse off nowadays, but I digress.

When goods don't cross borders, armies do. Dependence is necessary for peace

Perhaps necessary, but definitely not sufficient, as demonstrated by Russia willing to gamble everything on Ukraine.

Re: Critical Minerals: Reducing U.S. import reliance with substitution and recycling

#99

Post by AnimalMuppet »

ColdStream wrote: post #90
CamperBob2 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen the state of the rest of their armaments? Countries that have to bum artillery and soldiers off of North Korea are not in any position to go up against NATO. If you're a Russian officer in charge of nuclear stockpile maintenance, why in the world wouldn't you pencil-whip the paperwork and steal the funding? If you're ever caught, it will be under circumstances where nobody will be in a position to do an…

There is a good chance of this. Nukes need ongoing yearly maintenance to be operational, without that they are basically just a flying tin can. The whole movie trope of stealing an old nuke and using it doesn't apply to the real world. Also corruption is somewhat accepted in some countries as it allows those at the top to have legitimate means of disposing of traitors when needed without that hassle of drumming up fa…

What ongoing yearly maintenance does a non-hydrogen nuke need?

Re: Critical Minerals: Reducing U.S. import reliance with substitution and recycling

#100

Post by 0cf8612b2e1e »

ColdStream wrote: post #90
CamperBob2 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen the state of the rest of their armaments? Countries that have to bum artillery and soldiers off of North Korea are not in any position to go up against NATO. If you're a Russian officer in charge of nuclear stockpile maintenance, why in the world wouldn't you pencil-whip the paperwork and steal the funding? If you're ever caught, it will be under circumstances where nobody will be in a position to do an…

There is a good chance of this. Nukes need ongoing yearly maintenance to be operational, without that they are basically just a flying tin can. The whole movie trope of stealing an old nuke and using it doesn't apply to the real world. Also corruption is somewhat accepted in some countries as it allows those at the top to have legitimate means of disposing of traitors when needed without that hassle of drumming up fa…

I read that in the Cold War, the military expected some incredibly high failure rate (30%+) of the bombs due to technical failures. These are incredibly complicated machines.
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