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Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

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Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#91

Post by doctoboggan »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

I think the SotA is moving too fast for the production timelines of an ASIC, wouldn't you think? People are just now coming out with LLAMA ASICS but who would want to use LLAMA? Or I guess you are arguing that the models _now_ will be durably useful enough to commit the time to creating the ASIC?

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#92

Post by searealist »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

How does an ASIC manage to have 60x the memory bandwidth needed to achieve that speedup?

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#93

Post by tempoponet »

umeshunni wrote: post #79
LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

> the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. I don't understand how this works when the models are evolving so fast that your burned ASIC is outdated (or at least not top of the line) in a few weeks.

If llama 3 70b were available for $400 today, people would make it work. They would have 4 of them working side by side or 1 of them working with a GPU on another model.

To me, it's like imagining if Sonnet 3 was burned into an ASIC 8 years ago and then never changed. It would still be revolutionary, and today we would have an entire ecosystem of tools and services built around it, likely surpassing some of our current workflows.

The frontier is a different beast, but it would likely mean competing on price.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#94

Post by alex43578 »

gopalv wrote: post #86
LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

> Does anyone think we need a Mythos level model to plan a road trip, or give someone tips on making a cake recipe? This is starting to look at a lot like Intel vs Arm from the last era. The Fable & Mythos are starting to look like a giant Xeon, while the smaller lighter models are starting to look like a lot of tiny ARM chips which sip on power instead. The risk is the same as what Intel had. There is a group who ar…

Except aren’t these Chinese models having to go big too? While they might not be Mythos/Fable sized, a trillion plus parameters is hardly a local server or even desktop to mainframe style jump

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#95

Post by fomoz »

overgard wrote: post #14

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

That's very true. I realized it myself when I worked on my first app, I made a resume tailor last summer back when GPT 5 just came out.

Then, by the time GPT 5.5 came out you could already generate a flawless PDF and Word doc resume with the same formatting as your base resume. It really is amazing.

Trying to compete with these labs is a bad idea, you might work hard on your thin wrapper and then they come out and have their chatbot or harness do it way better than you.

But I also think this is really cool. It's a new era in software. Build something worthwhile and you won't need to worry about a lab doing the same thing with their chatbot.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#96

Post by xyzsparetimexyz »

Incipient wrote: post #44
drakythe wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our current incarnation of capitalism is all about monopolistic behaviors. If these LLM companies do get to the point of being able to replace employees I fully expect them to stop selling shovels and start producing the gold directly, anyone else be damned. And, frankly, this has always been the case. If a product is built on top of another service it has a limited lifespan. Either the product will be purchased or i…

I mean Claude IS replacing people. Even in Australia - Claude + postgres mcp is replacing data/bi people in even small and medium businesses.

What did the bisexuals do to deserve that?

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#97

Post by amaranth »

torginus wrote: post #42
in_a_society wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Baking weights in makes a lot of sense for inference speed and power efficiency and has the added benefit of putting many end-users on the hardware refresh treadmill.

Yes, but how much would be a static Sonnet 3.5 be worth today? Its just about 2 years old. I'm not even going to ask about 3yo models like GPT4.

The first one might not make sense but it gets them the pipeline for when it does make sense in the future. Plus for a lot of things using LLMs they'd be fine with older tech, especially if running it was even faster and cheaper.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#98

Post by uncivilized »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #15
uncivilized wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your workflow such that frontier models increases productivity considerably?

For people cranking out SaaS / web services / web pages / "full stack" work I don't see a huge difference. If you're building an optimizing compiler, a CUDA kernel, a database, a high performance concurrent data structure with tricky locking, etc. etc. it's still not really close. Sol 5.6 on high just slays e.g. GLM 5.2 for this kind of work for me. I'm sure K3 is fine for these things too, but I can't afford it at i…

Regarding the latter, are you able to obtain good results from an LLM? With graphics programming work, I find LLMs only help in cases where the task would take me 5 mins or so.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#99

Post by gopalv »

misiti3780 wrote: post #56
LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

is anyone doing this ?

Taalas HC1 is the closest thing to this.

Last I saw they posted Deepseek R1 numbers in Feb of this year.

The challenge is rolling out a new one every 7-8 weeks as the weights change & cheap enough for a hyper scaler to afford to buy one and save enough on power over the next 8 weeks as a payoff.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#100

Post by bensyverson »

umeshunni wrote: post #79
LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

> the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. I don't understand how this works when the models are evolving so fast that your burned ASIC is outdated (or at least not top of the line) in a few weeks.

I think it makes more sense if you think about an ASIC pipeline which is updated on an annual basis, like Apple's M or A-series chips.

Sure, an ASIC model will always be behind (12 months? 18 months?), and a hosted flagship will be significantly better. But as time marches on, would I use a flagship model from last year if it came on a PCI card and cost $1000? Without a shadow of a doubt.

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