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I love LLMs, I hate hype

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Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#91

Post by bluegatty »

SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

Frontier labs will figure out all sorts of ways to wiggle into the value chain beyond being commodities.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#92

Post by kenforthewin »

lukeschlather wrote: post #57
kenforthewin wrote: post #29

I felt the same way in 2024-2025. Then Sonnet 4 was released, and things started feeling different. Opus 4.5 was another step change for me. Everything feels like it's accelerating, and timelines are getting crunched. I guess in some ways I envy OP, who would "bet everything" against ASI - the truth is I don't know, and I don't think anyone knows, where this ends.

He didn't say he bets everything against ASI, he said he bets everything against ASI being a flash of light in the sky which destroys our chance of getting access to the wealth it creates.

That's a much less generous interpretation of his writing. "Yes we will birth superintelligence, but everything will just sort of work out for us humans". This seems like a silly take to me.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#93

Post by deeplowdock »

Razengan wrote: post #25

I recently realized, that ever since I've had AI to "talk" to, I haven't had a stuck or "downtime" moment; there's always something to at least brainstorm on. In the past when I couldn't figure out something, I'd take a break for a couple days, while going through Google → Stack Overflow → Reddit, and by the time you got to that point you rarely got useful answers, usually either trolls or silence. Now I can just ask…

I am calling your bullshit out and asking to provide even a singular example where you got 'trolled' seeking software development help.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#94

Post by overgard »

SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

Yeah, I've started reaching for local models more. I'll use frontier models at the current cost for tasks that the local ones aren't great at, but when the rug pull inevitably comes, to me they're not worth 1000-2000 a month. And honestly, for my purposes I don't really need models to advance a lot. Like, I tried fable a couple of times and there just wasn't much there to justify its use to me. Opus did the same thing much cheaper.

I think an interesting question is going to be, if models are a commodity, who is going to want to foot the very expensive bill to train them? I'm sure training cost will drop.. eventually, but I doubt it will happen fast enough for any of these companies.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#95

Post by QuantumGood »

SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

Just to clarify your implication: Fable subscription usage was just (re)extended to July 19

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#96

Post by Lt_Riza_Hawkeye »

SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

While I do agree there will be disruption we haven't seen yet, my company is already spending >$40k/day for a "frontier model", so who knows. Then again, they're not using that for coding

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#97

Post by nullsanity »

hamandcheese wrote: post #10

> where’s all this new magical software that the productivity improvements should imply? It's running, privately, in my homelab. I think we are entering what I call the "have it your way" era. If an open source project doesn't do exactly what you want it to do, fork it, or create a new version. It's too easy. This makes me a bit concerned about the future of open source. Upstreaming used to be worth it, since maintai…

[dead]

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#98

Post by Razengan »

deeplowdock wrote: post #93
Razengan wrote: post #25

I recently realized, that ever since I've had AI to "talk" to, I haven't had a stuck or "downtime" moment; there's always something to at least brainstorm on. In the past when I couldn't figure out something, I'd take a break for a couple days, while going through Google → Stack Overflow → Reddit, and by the time you got to that point you rarely got useful answers, usually either trolls or silence. Now I can just ask…

I am calling your bullshit out and asking to provide even a singular example where you got 'trolled' seeking software development help.

^ Here's one

but seriously? You can have a look now yourself.

I haven't used Reddit for anything serious for years, but the times I or other people actually got useful answers or ideas is few compared to:

- A handful of mods deciding for thousands of readers that your question doesn't fit the "subreddit" (this happened a lot on /r/askscience)

- Low effort answers by karma farmers, basically copy-pasting docs etc

- "Why do you want to do this?" and other derailments completely failing to answer the question

- Actually literal trolling: "Your first problem was using xxx"

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#99

Post by hintymad »

SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

> But, at token rates, 10x or 100x the cost of open models or what I was spending on the frontier models a month ago

And we can't ignore the power of "good enough". GLM5.2 may not be as good as the SOTA models, but it can be good enough for most, of not all, of our needs.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#100

Post by yowlingcat »

hamandcheese wrote: post #10

> where’s all this new magical software that the productivity improvements should imply? It's running, privately, in my homelab. I think we are entering what I call the "have it your way" era. If an open source project doesn't do exactly what you want it to do, fork it, or create a new version. It's too easy. This makes me a bit concerned about the future of open source. Upstreaming used to be worth it, since maintai…

I understand the concern and it's fair but I am very curious about what happens when the two notions of "free" (free as in beer, and free as in freedom) start to diverge because the former gets easier to do.

The latter as always been more durable. Linux doesn't have the mindshare it does because it's "free" as in beer - it's because it's "free" as in freedom.

The price of freedom, of brewing your own beer, is sometimes higher than buying it from the store. But for many folks, the control over the supply chain is what makes it worth it. In LLM-land, it might take a little bit of time for folks to catch up -- or maybe a lot of that is already in motion as companies get paranoid (and rightfully so) to frontier labs getting a little grabby about data. If you need a ZDR environment, "free" as in freedom has a very high premium that you will pay and rightfully so.

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