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EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

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Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#91

Post by Lio »

apparent wrote: post #87
Lio wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one throws Duracell during riots for a reason. Where as a small bottle, half filled with petrol, and a lit rag makes a pretty good anti-tank weapon. A car with a tank full of gas is basically a big bomb. I'd rather sleep over the electric car.

I can't remember an automaker ever doing a recall for an ICE vehicle that would spontaneously combust while parked. Maybe it happened at some point (ICE vehicles have been around for a long time), but there have been several for EVs. The probably is undoubtedly caused in part by the fact that EVs are charged while parked, whereas ICE vehicles are generally just sitting there, turned off.

You can't remember it because it's so common it doesn't raise any media interest:

ICE vehicles: ~174,000–200,000 fires/year (1,500–1,530 per 100,000 sold).

EVs: ~25 fires per 100,000 sold (hundreds per year total).

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#92

Post by oliwarner »

jml78 wrote: post #59
oliwarner wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, we have an EV and you do have to think about range if you're going over 100mi away and time is tight (eg you have young children, appointments, etc) When I can throw 100mi into my car in 5 minutes without having to do backflips to get the charger to start, or drive out of my way to specific chargers, and not pay 20 times the market electricity rate... Then people will stop worrying about it. I do think we'll…

I am confused by your comment. Any EV with a 250+ mile range and your scenario is moot. You just go. Had an EV since 2018, range is never a concern. My only concern is that traditional American car manufacturers still suck at making EVs.

> Any EV...

Well if you're going to limit the universe to a set of cars that can drive far enough. Sure, new premium EVs bring far less range anxiety.

Used, budget EVs have both longevity and range issues. Used, budget ICE vehicles do not. It's important to remember that the market isn't just $50k+ vehicles.

And cars on the limit cause the most hand-wringing. Did you plug in last night? Do we stop early or at a meal time? You plan your day around it. It's not insurmountable but it exists.

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#93

Post by apparent »

Lio wrote: post #91
apparent wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't remember an automaker ever doing a recall for an ICE vehicle that would spontaneously combust while parked. Maybe it happened at some point (ICE vehicles have been around for a long time), but there have been several for EVs. The probably is undoubtedly caused in part by the fact that EVs are charged while parked, whereas ICE vehicles are generally just sitting there, turned off.

You can't remember it because it's so common it doesn't raise any media interest: ICE vehicles: ~174,000–200,000 fires/year (1,500–1,530 per 100,000 sold). EVs: ~25 fires per 100,000 sold (hundreds per year total).

Is this referring to recalls related to defective vehicles? Also, EVs are on average much newer than ICE vehicles. I would assume that most ICE vehicles that spontaneously combust are not newer ones.

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#94

Post by antisthenes »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #40
memoriyato3 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the propaganda works because we are all familiar with the smartphone battery degradation after 2 years, so it seems logical that same thing will happen with car batteries

> we are all familiar with the smartphone battery degradation after 2 years I haven’t experienced this for years.

It was very common in the 2012-2018 era. Batteries have gotten larger (less cycles) and better (sustain more cycles before losing capacity) since then.

Also phones don't have the same sophisticated circuitry or devices as a car to keep batteries in an optimal state, e.g. Nissan Leaf gen 1, which had significant range losses (on top of having a small range to begin with).

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#95

Post by Tadpole9181 »

rsync wrote: post #83
Tadpole9181 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they want to avoid confounding variables to real world use, this could take years. Nobody wants to wait years after an innovation to sell their product, so they develop ways to speed up the testing and get a number. A machine that presses a keyboard switch 500 times a second for several days straight is obviously not indicative of someone actually using the keyboard. But it'll get the "absolutely beat the snot out…

No, it doesn't take years and the testing is performed, roughly, as I just described it. They build a test rig with 10,000 drives which they run continuously producing a total "drive hours" count and then wait for the first one or two or ten drives to fail. X failures / 10,000,000 drive-hours will give you your MTBF, etc. ... and only takes ~40 days given a 10k drive test rig. Some pictures from Seagate lab in Longmo…

Yes, this is one of the hacks they use that are fundamentally inaccurate due to confounding variables like bathtub curves and different issues causing early failures and long-term failures...

Because, otherwise, they would need to run those drives for years and years with reasonable cycling and read/write pressure to report accurate numbers based on real world failure rates in real conditions.

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#96

Post by brikym »

Smoosh wrote: post #55
brikym wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

98% of NEW EVs. But the total market share of the fleet is about 1/3. Impressive. If EV share is 90% in a decade I wonder if Norway will see fuel stations being torn down.

According to YouTuber Bjorn Nyland, some such as Circle-K had already installed charging stations and are now removing some pumps and replacing them with chargers while adding even more charging stalls.

Thanks. The video was interesting.

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#97

Post by rolfus »

brikym wrote: post #50
rolfus wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had much of the same skepticism and anti-EV propaganda here in Norway a decade ago, when EV's started becoming popular. The usual claims was that the batteries would have to be replaced every five years, the cars would stop working in the winters, the batteries are fire hazards, the power grid won't support everyone buying EV's, etc.. All of which turned out to not be true. Today the market share for EV's is 98% a…

98% of NEW EVs. But the total market share of the fleet is about 1/3. Impressive. If EV share is 90% in a decade I wonder if Norway will see fuel stations being torn down.

Yeah, it's amazing how fast the transition has been. Many gas stations are or have already reallocated space from gas pumps to charging stations, and new stations are designed to accommodate EV's. Take a look at this station as an example - it's already five years old at this point: https://tinyurl.com/4y8u36m2

I should have been more accurate in my "majority" claim; it refers to EV's being the most common type of car compared to gas or diesel. Source: https://tinyurl.com/ycke45dy

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