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Can China build its own ASML?

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Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#91

Post by joe_mamba »

Chu4eeno wrote: post #83
eloisant wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have more than 1 billion people that are getting more and more educated, they have the capital and will to invest in it, they will get there eventually. The "moat" we're talking about with private companies is that it's very hard for competitors to get enough funding to compete, and private investors are unwilling to invest in a company that will compete with a big established player. That's completely different…

The problem is that their government doesn't let them go anywhere but into factories, no matter the education. They were promised upwards mobility, but their leaders need factory workers, more than ever.

Huh? Where did you get your sources?

Chinese factories are more automated than ever. More and more skilled chinese do skilled white collar work not repetitive factory assembly work.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#92

Post by hbd-investor »

joe_mamba wrote: post #74
lambdaone wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a Manhattan Project-level endeavour, and most countries would not be capable of it. China, however, is. Even though it lacks the expertise to do all these specific things to the Western cutting edge level right now, it has the resources, the overall technology and engineering base, and the determination to achieve the goal with the full power of the Chinese economy behind it. Not to mention industrial espiona…

>This is a Manhattan Project-level endeavour, and most countries would not be capable of it. China, however, is. Where's the proof in that? China can't even create jet engines that outperform dated soviet designs even when they bought their IP. Some things are just almost impossible to do without the right people at the right time, and you can spend virtually unlimited money and still never get there.

China has already beat Russia in jet engines,

Russia does not have a 5th generation engine core in even the validation phase.

China has a 5th generation engine core the WS-15, it has not only passed validation but is currently in mass production.

A true 5th generation engine core allows true supercruise

You can see the gap between the F-22, J-20 and Su-57

The F-22 supercruises from mach 1.5 -> mach 1.8 (This is because they have 5th gen engines, and is it burns its fuel stores)

The J-20 supercruises at mach 1.4 -> mach 1.8 (This is because the J-20 has a much larger internal fuel load, vs the F-22 as it burns this fuel it speeds up)

The Su-57 super cruises at mach 1.3 -> mach 1.5 (This is because it has a 4th gen engine, the actual 5th gen engine intended to power the SU-57 is stuck in development hell the Izdeliye 30 (or AL-51F1) so Russia put a souped up 4th gen engine inside the SU-57 the AL-41F1 which is the same core as the AL-31F. If they do complete their 5th gen engine the SU-57 is expected to supercruise at mach 1.8-> mach 2.0 as it burns up its fuel. Su-57 accepts more stealth penalties in exchange for superior aerodynamics.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#93

Post by hbd-investor »

exceptione wrote: post #52
saidnooneever wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

people overstate complexity of ASmL machines. They are not impossible to make or use, specialist work sure but its possible. The only reason why no one does it is: 1) IP laws, 2) Costs China has Money and Smart people. (and very effective corporate / nationstate espionage) so they can most certainly reproduce advanced machines. They might not have incentive yet to do it because it will not make them popular, and pote…

Why do you think they don't want to do it? I find that a weird statement, and your given reasons don't make sense to me. This is one of their core programs, and as part of that have taken over some IP via espionage programs. China is actively trying to build one for quite some time now. > people overstate complexity of ASmL machines. They are not impossible to make or use, specialist work sure but its possible. The o…

You are aware that ASML is a small company prior to EUV?

And they only allocated a small number of employees and resources to bring their first EUV machine to market?

ASML had 7,685 employees prior to their EUV success (Including contracts), of these 7,685 employees only 2500 were engineers. ASML put half of these engineers to develop the NXE:3100 and they only spent 10 billion dollars.

So total resources = 1250 engineers, 10 billion to make EUV a reality and 13 years.

So yes the complexity and difficulty of EUV machines is vastly overstated. The amount of resources spent on it is coins found in couch cushions to huge mega corps.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#94

Post by IAmBroom »

andy_ppp wrote: post #39
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #3

The answer is, of course, yes. What is there to stop them? Sure, it's difficult -- but where there's a will, and where the resources of China are involved, there is most assuredly a way. I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash. Now I don't think I'd buy a non-Chinese new car or cellphone, lol.

The usual game plan of getting the technology they want to copy by offering cheap and highly skilled Chinese labour and access to the Chinese market by building the machines there is not available to them, so the likelihood is this will take longer and be more difficult than other implementations. There's hundreds of other technologies needed other than the lasers and the mirrors and the software and the experience r…

My ASML supervisor literally said to me. circa 2006 (when I asked why we didn't shred our engineering papers): "With all the trouble we have getting these things to work, we should give our notes to the competitors to slow them down!"

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#95

Post by IAmBroom »

These arguments always remind me of 1960s-1970s era spy movies, where Bad Guy has the secret design for SuperNewBig computer chip, which will tip the balance of power inevitably in his favor.

Meh. For a year or so, his computers will work a little faster. Unless they power an armageddon-device, it's just a short head-start in a long race.

Can China build its own ASML? NEVER! Western brains and economic greatness cannot be equalled!

Yes, China will catch up. It won't give them anything but a short lead.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#96

Post by joe_mamba »

hbd-investor wrote: post #92
joe_mamba wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is a Manhattan Project-level endeavour, and most countries would not be capable of it. China, however, is. Where's the proof in that? China can't even create jet engines that outperform dated soviet designs even when they bought their IP. Some things are just almost impossible to do without the right people at the right time, and you can spend virtually unlimited money and still never get there.

China has already beat Russia in jet engines, Russia does not have a 5th generation engine core in even the validation phase. China has a 5th generation engine core the WS-15, it has not only passed validation but is currently in mass production. A true 5th generation engine core allows true supercruise You can see the gap between the F-22, J-20 and Su-57 The F-22 supercruises from mach 1.5 -> mach 1.8 (This is becau…

Russia is 30 years behind the west. China isn't competing with Russia, they're competing with the west.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#97

Post by csomar »

Gud wrote: post #66
toxicunderGroov wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadly yes, wish we'd just told them to fuck off and make a deal with China, they are the future - but we seem to be very scared of daddy.

Why, so China can copy the technology and produce their one 5 years later?

Having a reliable supplier in such a time will be a deterrent to building their home grown alternative.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#98

Post by lambdaone »

TFNA wrote: post #62
lambdaone wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with not learning languages is that it restricts you to computer-mediated communication. If you learn other languages than your own, even at a fairly basic level, there is a whole world of social interaction and culture out there that just can't be accessed with a machine in the way. This isn't to say that automated translation is bad, I use it extensively, but not all interaction worth having is online.

The expectation is that AI translation will also become quasi-realtime, so for in-person interactions, too. Many cultures will probably much rather interact with a foreigner speaking proficient AI translation, than a language-learner speaking with a poor accent and constant grammatical imperfections. Go to the Netherlands now as a Dutch learner who hasn't reached B2 level, for example, and local people won't like it,…

I happily go abroad and speak with my hosts in my rudimentary German, and we are all happy. Sometimes we shift to their slightly-less-rudimentary English, and that's good too. Although we sometimes resort to machine translation to look up a specific word or phrase when we are both stuck, we have never felt the need to use real-time spoken machine translation.
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