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OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#91

Post by JumpCrisscross »

dofm wrote: post #55
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility. > Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors? If Anthropic also delays its IPO, you'll have a point.

> There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. How would there be? He's a blogger and a youtuber, they are a private company with secretive financials, bankers involved in pre-IPO work don't talk openly. Nobody is going to say "we only decided not to do this because of a youtuber" because that would make them look like the ill-informed, over-eager idiots they've been to let this nonsense get this f…

> bankers involved in pre-IPO work don't talk openly

We're an obnoxiously chatty bunch.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#93

Post by flowerthoughts »

tempodox wrote: post #92

They just want to see Anthropic crash first and then be the last survivor.

If Anthropic tanks in the public markets, that will cause a revaluation of OpenAI in the private markets. If they delay IPO to try another private round, they also want to sign that round early.

Perhaps that's Anthropic's plan, is they believe OpenAI is weak. If the IPO is good they win. If it's bad OpenAI loses.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#94

Post by ipaddr »

rchaud wrote: post #78
treis wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGPT is the 5th most visited website in the world and gets a ridiculous amount of user data. They're going to be an advertising powerhouse.

There are only so many ad dollars to go around. ChatGPT getting traffic doesn't mean they can convince ad buyers that their dollar goes further than at established players like Google and Meta. AI search is a commodity at this point, even DuckDuckGo has it. Reddit has been one of the world's top websites for over a decade, yet they are totally irrelevant in terms of ad product market share.

Because reddit users are low quality users. Meta and Google can peak into your data and segment you to sell.

ChatGPT ads are low quality placed at the bottom barely noticed.

ChatGPT ads will get better. Meta's social userbase is drying up. Google keeps introducing and removing things from chrome to keep access to spy on you for them alone. We'll see how things pan out but in ten more years reddit ads will still be worthless.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#95

Post by koolala »

wmf wrote: post #32
koolala wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are the anecdotes about it hacking the NSA though?

It's not even out yet. Give it a second.

They need to do something new like create a more efficient battery formula out of recyclable abundant components. Hydrogen + Oxygen and Water are a good abundant recyclable example but also so is Gravity. Nightly / seasonal / long term energy storage needs another compact and efficient solution as elegant as these but better. (saying superconductors is cheating)

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#96

Post by dofm »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #90
dofm wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the things that really strikes me is that there are so many people talking about how great the frontier models are but there's nowhere near as many people talking about open weights and local models. There is this huge knowledge gap here about what the local models could do in terms of consumer queries with a tiny bit of agentic support. If more people could tinker with local models and see what they can do, I…

> If more people could tinker with local models and see what they can do, I think there would be far less belief that only the big two/three hold the keys to the kingdom and far more that the future is a bit more distributed Eh, I've played with them. They take way more babysitting to do the work reliably, and I have to much-more closely monitor the outputs for hallucinations. They'll get there. But it might take a d…

I was specifically referring to consumer AI, not agentic coding, and I really think Apple have a good chance of demonstrating smaller on-device LLMs plus traditional symbolic AI work (even just rules systems like evolved forms of Automator and Shortcuts in harnesses) can do much of what consumers want.

The current industry obsession with agentic coding is a giant red herring, in a way. Or at best a shiny thing. The pitch from OpenAI for their extraordinary valuation has always been absolutely all-encompassing in terms of utility and market. But we've stopped talking about that.

I don’t think these vast LLMs will be the dominant approach in a decade, frankly, because the performance gap between a 35B MoE and these absolutely gigantic models just is not proportional to the scale difference, but at this point we are just pitching belief against belief.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#97

Post by koolala »

itemize123 wrote: post #82
tristanj wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is patently false, don't spread rumors. Voluntarily delaying release at the request of the government is not the same as imposing export controls.

I would categorize the op as "technically false" but if they don't voluntarily delay, they would be export controlled.

Like being export controlled if you don't track everyone's identities is a form of imposing export restrictions. That is a true statement.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#98

Post by dminik »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #40
dminik wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, my comment wasn't necessarily meant to be some insightful analysis. But I do find it weird that OpenAI has seemingly gone from racing Anthropic to "maybe in 6 months" in the span of a week.

> OpenAI has seemingly gone from racing Anthropic to "maybe in 6 months" in the span of a week When was the last time someone seriously asked if OpenAI was going to go public before Anthropic? For me, it's been at least months, maybe closer to a year. The corporate-governance complexity drove half of that, momentum the other half, and messaging from both companies having been consistent with that timeline for months…

I mean, they did the "confidential S1 filing" thing a few days apart.

Anthropic on 1st June: https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec

OpenAI shortly before June 8: https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/

That was less than a month ago. They seemed to be on a similar pace at least from my point of view.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#99

Post by tim333 »

cdrnsf wrote: post #6

> The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges. SpaceX's stock volatile? It's a shame nobody saw that coming.

It's actually remained about 14% or more above the IPO price which is roughly what you'd want but gone up and down a bit.

It's funny with stock prices - they all go up and down a bit in kind of random ways but people project all sorts of stories onto them that often don't relate much to reality.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#100

Post by roxolotl »

tim333 wrote: post #99
cdrnsf wrote: post #6

> The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges. SpaceX's stock volatile? It's a shame nobody saw that coming.

It's actually remained about 14% or more above the IPO price which is roughly what you'd want but gone up and down a bit. It's funny with stock prices - they all go up and down a bit in kind of random ways but people project all sorts of stories onto them that often don't relate much to reality.

It peaked at around +60% from IPO price and swung daily around 10-15%. It’s possible it’s starting to stabilize but that first week was basically the definition of volatile.
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