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Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

theguardian.com

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Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#91

Post by stackskipton »

redox99 wrote: post #31
HWR_14 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They probably won't be on the S&P for years, because of profitability requirements.

If they can keep google and anthropic deals, they're already profitable.

That's huge IF, both of them have 90 day exit clause, and it's not like it's a long-term business.

Those deals are doable because xAI failed and SpaceX has a bunch of spare compute lying around they can rent out. However, SpaceX doesn't make the hardware or software so moat is nonexistent.

If compute capacity increases or AI demand decreases, Google/Anthropic will likely skip SpaceX and just buy their own hardware in their own datacenters or go back to their own datacenters.

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#92

Post by nradov »

mschuster91 wrote: post #37
loeg wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The relevant indices (S&P500, Vanguard) buy in proportion to available float -- i.e., its market cap is weighted by 5%. Only Nasdaq 100 ignores float, stupidly, but almost no money, especially 401(k) money, is in that.

Oh there are ETFs that track Nasdaq 100.

There are ETFs that track pretty much everything you can imagine. How much retirement money is in those?

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#93

Post by kevin_nisbet »

awesome_dude wrote: post #78
kyleee wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can someone make an etf that uses the older more conservative criteria for inclusion?

Can they? Yes, anyone can. Will they... that's a different question

And even if there are new ETFs like this, will ETF customers bother to move at enough scale. It's like the old quote for buying IBM, no one get's fired for returning the benchmark, so if it's the benchmark adjusting the way they do things there is lots of inertia.

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#94

Post by nradov »

keernan wrote: post #41
loeg wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The relevant indices (S&P500, Vanguard) buy in proportion to available float -- i.e., its market cap is weighted by 5%. Only Nasdaq 100 ignores float, stupidly, but almost no money, especially 401(k) money, is in that.

Musk tried mightily to get S&P to change their 12 month rule to 15 days but they refused. Nasdaq, however, caved to Musk and agreed to change the rules of its Index - from a 12 months wait to 15 days - in exchange for Musk agreeing to list SpaceX on Nasdaq's exchange. There are ETFs that were issued tied to the Nasdaq 100 which are therefore legally bound to buy SpaceX. But the biggest immorality is the SEC allowing…

I don't understand your comment. The SEC doesn't control IPO prices. No one was forced to buy $SPCX at the IPO price.

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#95

Post by WalterBright »

asdff wrote: post #69
rayiner wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If SpaceX succeeds, the gains will go to the same people who will bear the losses if it doesn’t. Both the gains and losses are privatized. The consumer/ad tech bias of HN is really showing. The app I use to share photos of my kids with my elderly relatives is worth $1.45 trillion, but somehow companies that make freaking EVs, robots, and rocket ships, and AI can’t possibly be worth that much? I’ve been in HN for 16 y…

There is no moat around what they are doing really and they have competitors in all these sectors. All it takes is another administration to come in with a brain and a spine to not just hand contract blindly to Elon.

Blindly? SpaceX launches cost only 10% of what NASA was previously spending.

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#96

Post by [deleted] »

sensanaty wrote: post #61
rayiner wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If SpaceX succeeds, the gains will go to the same people who will bear the losses if it doesn’t. Both the gains and losses are privatized. The consumer/ad tech bias of HN is really showing. The app I use to share photos of my kids with my elderly relatives is worth $1.45 trillion, but somehow companies that make freaking EVs, robots, and rocket ships, and AI can’t possibly be worth that much? I’ve been in HN for 16 y…

The difference being, of course, that the photo app actually earns a profit, whereas the "EVs, robots and rocket ships" and ESPECIALLY the AI so far do not, and most likely will not any time soon.

[deleted]

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#97

Post by sigmarule »

bpodgursky wrote: post #84
petilon wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those naive retail investors can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.

Sounds like the retirement funds should buy it then.

Time to insolvency and time to retirement, apples and oranges…

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#98

Post by overfeed »

testaburger wrote: post #73
ggm wrote: post #14

An interesting variant of "privatise the profits, socialise the losses" played wholly in the private sector capital investment space. "When you're rich they let you" is big in this because a functional board of a company about to be vested with a massive debt overhang from a serial offender (X and xAI) would surely have said "could we NOT" about this and the whole model including A and B class voting shares suggests…

Is spaceX absolutely vital for the US national security through Starlink as well as the launch of military satellites? Yes, and as a matter of fact this is also true for NATO allies, Japan, Taiwan, SK, etc in any future conflict for at least the next 5 to 10 years, just as it has been for the past 4 years in Ukraine. In addition to land based infrastructure that can be targeted in any future war -undersea cables are…

> the Ukraine war in Ukraine's favor once starlink locked down access

I think this is coincidental correlation. In the same period drone warfare was evolving until it reached some stalemate with an optic-fiber strewn killzone where none of the belligerents have an upper hand, and Ukraine's ballistic missile industry picked up pace, allowing Ukraine to hit far into Russia without relying on American long-range munitions, or needing American permission to use those munitions.

Re: Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

#100

Post by undersuit »

tlogan wrote: post #47

I have a feeling the article and the comments on this trend would be very different if Elon Musk did not support Trump, even if he were still just as crazy and rich.

Just a year ago the two were feuding. They're both lying conman with nothing to contribute.

"Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!"

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