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Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

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Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#91

Post by stephc_int13 »

KetoManx64 wrote: post #82
stephc_int13 wrote: post #56

Here is a prediction about Bitcoin: there will be a financial crash at some point in the future, maybe it will be the AI bubble, maybe because of oil, shortages, something entirely unforeseen or some combination of those things, but if there is something to know about cycles is that crashes happens. And because Bitcoin is now old enough that most people understand what it is, the hype has vanished, it won't survive t…

A financial bubble.. Like the one caused by the inflation of the dollar to unimaginable levels? 1/2 of all dollars in existance have been printed in the last 6 years. I would much rather have hard asset like Bitcoin, that is backed by the biggest computer network that has ever existed, that has a hard cap of 200m, than Federal Reserve IOU notes that can be printed ad-infenitem with zero recourse from you and me other…

I am guessing that Bitcoin crashing would be bad new for ya.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#92

Post by KetoManx64 »

stephc_int13 wrote: post #91
KetoManx64 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A financial bubble.. Like the one caused by the inflation of the dollar to unimaginable levels? 1/2 of all dollars in existance have been printed in the last 6 years. I would much rather have hard asset like Bitcoin, that is backed by the biggest computer network that has ever existed, that has a hard cap of 200m, than Federal Reserve IOU notes that can be printed ad-infenitem with zero recourse from you and me other…

I am guessing that Bitcoin crashing would be bad new for ya.

Not at all. I started buying when it was $5000 a coin and am staking my retirement on it going to $500k-1M in my lifetime.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#93

Post by wmf »

OutOfHere wrote: post #35
scotty79 wrote: post #30

We are in the middle of every 4 year hole at the moment. Heights and lows are unpredictable but the timing is still solid.

The lows are also predictable in my estimation.

Based on previous patterns, the low should be over $75K. It's already broken.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#94

Post by scotty79 »

OutOfHere wrote: post #81
scotty79 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not much lower than what? Than the current price of fifty-ish k. Although even if you buy and sell perfectly. This cycle gain shouldn't be larger than about 100% between now and +2.5 years from now. And that's in dollars, that are gonna probably lose another another 15% of their value in that time. Bitcoin became a pretty boring asset.

> Than the current price of fifty-ish k. Huh. The price as of today is 63K USD. Please always state your currency unit, and it's best to stick to USD for international communication purposes. Are you new to this? I guess it's okay for different people to have different beliefs about how low it'll go, otherwise it wouldn't get traded. I base mine in experience over the last few cycles.

Ah, yes, sorry. My bad. I was looking at the price in EUR since USD went downhill and stopped being a roughly stable measure of value.

My estimates are basically eyeballing the chart of deviation from logarithmic curve fit (on log-linear scale) of all btc price data (adjusted for USD inflation) going back to 2009. It's more of a family of charts since picking t=0 date is fairly arbitrary.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#95

Post by darth_avocado »

KetoManx64 wrote: post #84
darth_avocado wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Value can only teleport if someone is willing to trade traditional currency in exchange on the other side. My no international fee bank account also teleports value across the globe instantly and more merchants are willing to accept it than Bitcoin.

Your "no international fee bank account" also inflates away at 8-10% a year if you're holding US dollars in savings. And about the same or more for other currencies. The Federal reserve has printed 1/2 of all dollars in existance in the last 6 years, and deflated the value of your dollar by around half. While I can buy a cup of coffee with bitcoin, I'd rather use the federal reserve notes that are backed by nothing b…

Somehow dollar held in banks inflates away savings but bitcoin that is down 15% in 5 days is safer? Hilarious

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#96

Post by KetoManx64 »

darth_avocado wrote: post #95
KetoManx64 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your "no international fee bank account" also inflates away at 8-10% a year if you're holding US dollars in savings. And about the same or more for other currencies. The Federal reserve has printed 1/2 of all dollars in existance in the last 6 years, and deflated the value of your dollar by around half. While I can buy a cup of coffee with bitcoin, I'd rather use the federal reserve notes that are backed by nothing b…

Somehow dollar held in banks inflates away savings but bitcoin that is down 15% in 5 days is safer? Hilarious

Bitcoin is down 15% after being up 10,000% in the last decade... while the dollar is worth 50% of what it was 5 years ago. If you bought bitcoin at $10 or even $1000, what do you care if it drops down to $60k for a week?

The world must be very confusing when your time preference and economic scope is 1 weeks worth of data.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#97

Post by OutOfHere »

wmf wrote: post #93
OutOfHere wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lows are also predictable in my estimation.

Based on previous patterns, the low should be over $75K. It's already broken.

I disagree with any rationale for a $75K estimate. My estimate is about $50K. $75K is just so wrong that it has been breached repeatedly in recent times, completely invalidating any theory behind it.

If your estimation approach doesn't work for the last two cycles, it won't work for this one.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#98

Post by beAbU »

defmetrix wrote: post #23

My own personal opinion is that the hype around bitcoin is not coming back. I dont think its going to zero, but too many people have just moved on.

All it takes is one modest upward blip and it's price will "crash" to the moon. There is very little interest now, but FOMO is real and the moment it does something interesting many defenerate gamlblers will reconsider their disinterest.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#99

Post by beAbU »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #3

I like to tell people I have an imaginary dog. It fits my needs perfectly except for one critical issue --- it won't clean up food dropped on the floor. Bitcoin is imaginary money. It works perfectly except for one critical issue --- it's not very good for purchasing stuff. Bitcoin has about the same value as my imaginary dog.

The thing about tortured analogies is that when a camel stubs its toe in the desert it's liable to start speaking french.

Re: Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week

#100

Post by beAbU »

deejaaymac wrote: post #7
jqpabc123 wrote: post #3

I like to tell people I have an imaginary dog. It fits my needs perfectly except for one critical issue --- it won't clean up food dropped on the floor. Bitcoin is imaginary money. It works perfectly except for one critical issue --- it's not very good for purchasing stuff. Bitcoin has about the same value as my imaginary dog.

I use bitcoin to pay for things several times a month, works fine for me.

Other than drugs and mullvad, what else are you buying?
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