The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century • Hacker News Board

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#91

Post by Zigurd » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 2:07 PM UTC

prolly97 wrote: post #61

bmink wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, few could have anticipated that Tesla and Musk would be unaffected by valid scrutiny and criticism. This is also addressed in the article: > E. DON’T TRY TO SHORT SPACEX!! > Elon Musk is a cult figure. Moreover, he has again and again proven himself immune to any meaningful market, legal, or regulatory scrutiny. > Musk’s detractors have been correct about Tesla’s terrible fundamentals, its Full Self-Drivi…

All that. But also he makes products so compelling that people who dislike him drives in them. "Fuck Elon" gotta be an all time top seller among bumper stickers. > few could have anticipated that Tesla and Musk would be unaffected by valid scrutiny and criticism. This almost implies that the scrutiny itself, and not the economic reality, should be the reason of Teslas demise or otherwise lesser financial outcome. Whi…

Tesla isn't the technology, performance, luxury, infotainment, or value leader in EV's any longer. If you think the Germans know what the salute meant, and they stopped buying the cars, you can take the hint and have a lot of excellent choices.

There is no future prospect of explosive growth at Tesla any longer. That price to earnings ratio is not less absurd for having lasted this long.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#92

Post by UncleMeat » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 2:12 PM UTC

michaelt wrote: post #21

The other stuff is bad, but surely "insiders who will pocket millions" is normal for an IPO?

They will pocket millions at an inflated stock price because index funds will be forced to compete at an inflated price with low availability in order to meet their institutional obligations because of the changing rules by the indices themselves.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#93

Post by Zigurd » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC

mamonster wrote: post #59

My only real issue with SpaceX is that Elon has mastered the art of hiding real jewels (in this case the Starlink business) behind a whole pile of shit, and then forcing you buy the whole thing as a package. Having X and Grok be bundled with SpaceX (muh datacenters in space) is like SolarCity on steroids. With regards to the index discussion, my over/under on an ETF that tracks the index minus SpaceX is like two mont…

Real jewels aren't trying to grow into a shrinking TAM that's being whittled away by the expansion of terrestrial wireless farther into the not yet served, but rich enough to be served countryside in places where that demographic exists.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#94

Post by Zigurd » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 2:17 PM UTC

readthenotes1 wrote: post #7

SpaceX a failure at 83% of mass to orbit. Yoikes.

If Nvidia was buying 80% of their own chips, we would have the same criticism of Nvidia as we have of SpaceX. Nvidia's valuation is rational because they sell to real customers and get real cold hard cash from those customers.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#95

Post by Zigurd » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC

khazhoux wrote: post #10

How can a public sale ever be a theft?

The same way other pseudo-capitalistic deals that you can't walk away from are theft. Like what we in America health insurance.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#96

Post by flowerthoughts » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 2:37 PM UTC

sschueller wrote: post #6

The point-to-point travel with starship is the one that urks me the most. It is completely unrealistic and will never happen. They have Zürich, Switzerland as a destination. There is no place in all of Zürich to facility such a thing, you will blow out every window in the city at each launch. Absolutely ridiculous that anyone would take this serious. Also don't get me started on data centers in space idea... When the…

> There is no place in all of Zürich to facility such a thing, you will blow out every window in the city at each launch.

While you're right, I'd be more sceptical due to politics. The people around Lake Zürich are up in arms over wind turbines. Even solar panels on mountain sides are too much (though that's hopefully less about noise.) I can't imagine the uproar if someone wanted to fire rocket engines regularly there.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#97

Post by henry2023 » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 2:41 PM UTC

CactusBlue wrote: post #31

henry2023 wrote: post #17

It's hard to know if SpaceX will flop in a week or in a decade but what I'm pretty confident on is a lot of retail capital allocated in Tesla will be redistributed to SpaceX. So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.

How do you know that this isn't already priced by quant firms?

Even if it's expected most can't do the trade because we're Pre-IPO.

Also, realized move always carries more value than expected because of uncertainty.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#98

Post by henry2023 » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 2:43 PM UTC

amai wrote: post #85

satvikpendem wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk's plan is to merge Tesla and SpaceX into one company.

New name: Stark Industries?

No, something more original more relatable: X Technologies. /s

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#99

Post by henry2023 » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC

TurdF3rguson wrote: post #36

CactusBlue wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know that this isn't already priced by quant firms?

More like: why would you think it's not already priced in. Answer: I'm super special!

I'm not special, this is a pretty basic idea so there's no edge here but that doesn't mean there's no trade.

Also, you'd be surprised at how simple the most profitable Quant strategies are.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#100

Post by mamonster » Thu, Jun 04, 2026, 2:49 PM UTC

Zigurd wrote: post #93

mamonster wrote: post #59

My only real issue with SpaceX is that Elon has mastered the art of hiding real jewels (in this case the Starlink business) behind a whole pile of shit, and then forcing you buy the whole thing as a package. Having X and Grok be bundled with SpaceX (muh datacenters in space) is like SolarCity on steroids. With regards to the index discussion, my over/under on an ETF that tracks the index minus SpaceX is like two mont…

Real jewels aren't trying to grow into a shrinking TAM that's being whittled away by the expansion of terrestrial wireless farther into the not yet served, but rich enough to be served countryside in places where that demographic exists.

>Real jewels aren't trying to grow into a shrinking TAM

Why do you think TAM is shrinking? It's pretty clear, to me at least, that Starlink is basically one of a kind military contractor that has a freeway to both raise prices and expand offerings.

Civilian market sure, but it's pretty clear the milltech path is going to be a money printer for satellites and it looks like you have a clear moat (i.e European sattelite companies won't be able to bid on those contracts).