Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Internet traffic in Iran increasing

radar.cloudflare.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 109 posts

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#91

Post by tim333 »

whatever1 wrote: post #45
zuzululu wrote: post #41

Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink. Those two were supposed to b…

I really thought that Russia would use such a device to end the war in Ukraine. Hopefully they will not.

Russia could end the war in Ukraine tomorrow by just going home.

They could use nukes as part of their campaign of imperial expansion but they'd get a lot of push back from the rest of the world.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#92

Post by tim333 »

rayiner wrote: post #55
epistasis wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Ukraine had kept its nuclear weapons it would not have been attacked, but there was never any risk of Russia using nuclear weapons. This is just one of many many ways that people in the west fundamentally misunderstand Russia, and why so many people made fools of themselves thinking that Putin would not invade. The other really big one is that Russia never admitted that it lost the Cold War and thinks the war is s…

> and that it's the fault of the US and others that Russia is so backwards and poor Why is Russia so backwards and poor? Russia and Iran are two countries that seem to way underperform their fundamentals.

They'd be quite well off just now if they'd taken the resources spent invading Ukraine and spent them on developing their own country instead. Why they feel the need to keep invading everyone is a more interesting question.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#93

Post by tim333 »

xiphias2 wrote: post #78
whatever1 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really thought that Russia would use such a device to end the war in Ukraine. Hopefully they will not.

It would not, but it's clearly not just a war with Ukraine. Europe is sending the jet engines for the drones that are shooting Moscow, and Germany is very actively preparing for war with Russia. It's not the first time in history that this has been done, and Russia still remembers.

The troops are Ukrainian on one side and Russian plus North Korean on the other. The fact both countries have supporters even if only a handful in Russia's case doesn't make them very at war.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#94

Post by tim333 »

nostrademons wrote: post #12

The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that says it's all fake news. In the past the Trump administration has claimed the war was ending and Iran said (truthfully) it's all fake news. It makes me wonder if something has shifted with the internal power dynamics in Iran, and the civilian government at lea…

The Iranians are probably good with the status quo - Trump blustering while blocking Hormuz causes escalating shortages and the November elections pressure Trump.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#95

Post by tim333 »

fragmede wrote: post #77
zuzululu wrote: post #41

Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink. Those two were supposed to b…

Both Russia and Iran have figured out how to jam Starlink.

Starlink seems to function pretty well in Ukraine.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#96

Post by bluegatty »

jmyeet wrote: post #70
bluegatty wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's fair to say sanctions don't always work but otherwise this is wrong on every account. - The Soviet Union fell apart for economic reasons, not due to ideology or anything else. - Sanctions 100% work. North Korea is a powerless useless state due to sanctions. They have not collapsed, but they can't do anything otherwise. - Sanctions on Russia are absolutely effective - we can see how the state budget gets drained…

Name one time sanctions have worked. And relaly by worked I mean caused a regime to collapse or otherwise change. I can think of one: South Africa. And they were an ally not an enemy so they don't count. Sanctions against allies work great. Israel would collapse in a day if the US seriously floated sanctions. USSR? Sanctions werne't the primary cause. North Korea? The Kims have ruled for 60 years with no end in sight…

This is wrong on almost every point, this is a glib and superficial understanding of geopolitics.

Sanctions are a tool - nobody expects them to necessarily 'cause a regime' do collapse.

+ Sanctions were an important part of driving the Soviet Union to collapse.

+ "So really we're just starving North Koreans for literally no reason. " - no - we are 'sanctioning' North Korea to keep them in box.

Sanctions on North Korea are very effective at keeping them powerless.

+ Russia, again your analysis is glib and false. Sanctions are effective - they stop Russian from obtaining certain materials, they hollow out the budget faster, make it more difficult for them to fight.

If Russia were not sanctioned, it's possible they might have overwhelmed Ukraine already.

If you were paying attention, you'd see that Russia is actually showing strain, economically and socially.

Just three days ago Putin signalled the 'war coming to an end' and used conciliatory language when referring to Zelensky.

This is a big shift (among a few others) and sanctions have been a primary tool to coerce his regime.

"Russia has always been 3 weeks from failing" is just nonsense you've made up.

+ "Whatever Iranians think of their leadership, they despise the US and Israel more"

It's irrelevant because the US is not invading and if the regime stops paying them, their anger will be against the regime.

+ "status of the US dollar as a reserve currency are all unravelling"

Again, uninformed hyperbole. USD has strengthened, bond yields are up - those are different things.

+ "Trump has never restrained Israel" - is also false, use Google. Trump defies Israel often, but most critically, the 'deal on offer' that seems to be coming out of the White House would be a 'very bad deal' for Israel.

Trump is throwing Israel under the bus as we speak, by offering Iran fairly good terms, it's why in the last 2 days you've seen Republicans come out on TV to reinforce how Trump should 'seek a strong deal'.

Summary: the sanctions are effective, and the best tool to coerce the regime in Iran, which is horrible, and it will be extremely bad for everyone.

All of that notwithstanding none of this should have happened in the first place.

You read far too much Reddit.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#97

Post by dnautics »

t-3 wrote: post #85
dnautics wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we shall see you see, the problem is this "unprovoked attack by the biggest bully on the planet" framing requires some sense of "international order" but thats a myth, always has been, and, now its being seen for what it is. in that world iran doesn't do so well, especially since the claims it makes (controlling the hormuz) depend on rejecting the international order. you cant have your cake and eat it too. im not sa…

Turkey charges fees for ships crossing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles. That's not illegal or against the international order. The only countries strongly opposing an Iranian/Omani fee are the US, Israel, and Europe, because they are enemies of Iran. Other countries just add it to the cost of doing business.

i don't know where you are getting your information. oman and china (among others) opposes tolling hormuz. the montreaux convention precedes the un, and was explicitly rolled into the rules of the sea.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#98

Post by licebmi__at__ »

nostrademons wrote: post #12

The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that says it's all fake news. In the past the Trump administration has claimed the war was ending and Iran said (truthfully) it's all fake news. It makes me wonder if something has shifted with the internal power dynamics in Iran, and the civilian government at lea…

You could also give credence to the reporting that US/Trump has messaged to Iran that they should ignore Trump declarations as they are intended for internal audiences.

During the rest of the conflict Trump has doubled down on threats, I mean "a civilization will die tonight" is not peacefully. I wouldn't doubt that Trump might believe Iran is weak, but I also think is more than proved that US wartime messaging is mostly directed internally to keep people dumb.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#100

Post by esseph »

t-3 wrote: post #84
esseph wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, Iran has been firing missiles at 14 different countries in this war. Not exactly saints.

They didn't start the war. Those countries are hosting bases and troops and providing aid to the enemy who attacked them multiple times while they were negotiating . Why shouldn't they strike US bases and US vassals when fighting a war against the US? Why should they be polite when the US doesn't even honor basic diplomatic norms, let alone pretend to care about international law or rules of engagement?

Seems like not a good way to make friends in the region.

In fact, it seems like a situation where those countries could be like "fuck these guys".

Post reply on HN