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? No. These companies are not publicly traded yet so they are not in these indices. Funds are fighting to keep them out so they’re not required to buy stocks they think will tank.
There is indirect exposure to Anthropic/OpenAI through all the incestuous partnerships between hyperscalers and NVDA
I hope price increases will mean we see serious moves towards open source and/or on device models. Feels like that's where we should all be headed but the current subsidy is a distraction.
There is no subsidy in interference. Serving existing models is a highly profitable business. The proofs are many independent companies serving models for profit. What is expensive is model development and training, but again, that's nothing inherent to technology. It's just that Anthropic and other western vendors made a business decision to use cheap investors money to brute force a new model development and market…
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I agree but with the current hardware pricing it is a big problem
Just be patient for a few years. Even with the end of Moore's Law, compute hardware pricing always declines over the long run.
If anything breaks on my pc, it's going to be really rough.
My kids grow fast,a few years is a lot for them too.
And i have a bunch of games I want to play with my wife that require 2 computers sadly
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You're thinking backwards. The money is parked in these companies. They basically figured out a strategy to maximize return in an environment where the public market is dominated by passive capital. It's time for Google/Elon/Softbank/sovereign wealth funds, etc to cash out. For you, it's time to tilt to bond and value.
> an environment where the public market is dominated by passive capital While by "the end of May 2024, passive mutual funds and ETF assets" had "grown to nearly 60% of the equity fund market" (emphasis mine) [1], only about a third of American stocks are held by passive capital [2]. (Index funds are about 16%.) > For you, it's time to tilt to bond and value Or just buy the market and watch the show. [1] https://www.…
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Indirect exposure is just a completely different beast than direct exposure. It’s a different level of risk altogether
> It’s a different level of risk altogether In this case, really? Between Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD, Amazon and everyone else in that S&P 500 there's not >50% of OpenAI already? It's not that indirect. Microsoft alone is 27%.
I hope price increases will mean we see serious moves towards open source and/or on device models. Feels like that's where we should all be headed but the current subsidy is a distraction.
I would self-host if it didn't cost so much for the hardware. But right now that's cost prohibitive for most individuals and small or medium businesses.
The question is if the MoE advances and compression (TurboQuant) makes common computers fast enough to run local models that are "Good Enough".
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There is no subsidy in interference. Serving existing models is a highly profitable business. The proofs are many independent companies serving models for profit. What is expensive is model development and training, but again, that's nothing inherent to technology. It's just that Anthropic and other western vendors made a business decision to use cheap investors money to brute force a new model development and market…
Many of the chinese developers are just drafting off of Anthropic, OpenAI, and Gemini though. Distillation is leveraging those models to achieve their leaps in training. It's not obvious to me that Anthropic and do the same. Someone has to build the advanced model to draft off of.
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Many of the chinese developers are just drafting off of Anthropic, OpenAI, and Gemini though. Distillation is leveraging those models to achieve their leaps in training. It's not obvious to me that Anthropic and do the same. Someone has to build the advanced model to draft off of.
Of course Anthropic is doing the same. Just ask Claude in Chinese to introduce himself and tell you what he does and how it can help you. There's a good chance that it will tell you its name is DeepSeek ;)
It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…
I think that SpaceX and OpenAI will be ok. Ukraine war showed that Starlink is the real deal - all of Ukraine's successes (or reversed losses) in the last few months are mostly due to Starlink cutting off Russia. OpenAI seem to have the tech on par with Anthropic and world class con artist at the top and access to more compute. So when the tsunami of Chinese models and silicone materializes - Anthropic will be most v…
that said, it definitely helped