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Iran will impose fees on subsea internet cables in Strait of Hormuz

cnn.com

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Re: Iran will impose fees on subsea internet cables in Strait of Hormuz

#91

Post by dylan604 »

Ajedi32 wrote: post #90
dylan604 wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran was quite happy to let Chinese and Russian flagged ships to pass. Now, the US is blocking those as well as anything heading toward Iran. The US recently had a short lived Operation Dumb Name to have the US Navy escort ships out of the straight. It lasted less than 48 hours.

I stand corrected then. Blocking "anything heading toward Iran" is perfectly reasonable given they're at war, and blocking Russian ships makes sense given the separate ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but I don't really see the point in the US blocking Chinese ships going to countries that aren't Iran, unless there's credible evidence China is giving direct aid to Iran. Is there? Otherwise, allowing them through seems li…

China is buying the oil. They don't care about US Sanctions. Not really sure what you mean by easy way to fix the shortage. Twenty percent of the world's oil trade is no longer trading because the straight is closed. The US is playing a game of "if we can't have any, nobody can have any".

Re: Iran will impose fees on subsea internet cables in Strait of Hormuz

#92

Post by jauntywundrkind »

anonymousiam wrote: post #78

It's pretty unlikely that this will happen. The government of Iran has made a lot of unreasonable demands, but has very little power to back them up.

The past couple years have really brought into focus to me the asymmetry, if how easy and cheap destruction and ruining things is, and how much harder maintaining and defending and protecting can be.

It seems like a wild claim to me to make that no, Iran can't make some small/medium underwater drones to go harass and destroy underwater cables. Protecting miles of lines splayed out across a big hard to get to area seems like a hard challenge.

(Big years for pests everywhere. Really really coming out in legion force.)

Re: Iran will impose fees on subsea internet cables in Strait of Hormuz

#93

Post by Ajedi32 »

dylan604 wrote: post #91
Ajedi32 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I stand corrected then. Blocking "anything heading toward Iran" is perfectly reasonable given they're at war, and blocking Russian ships makes sense given the separate ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but I don't really see the point in the US blocking Chinese ships going to countries that aren't Iran, unless there's credible evidence China is giving direct aid to Iran. Is there? Otherwise, allowing them through seems li…

China is buying the oil. They don't care about US Sanctions. Not really sure what you mean by easy way to fix the shortage. Twenty percent of the world's oil trade is no longer trading because the straight is closed. The US is playing a game of "if we can't have any, nobody can have any".

China can't buy oil from Iran that they physically can't get (due to the US blockade). If they want to buy oil from other non-Iranian nations though I say let them! Oil is a global market; every barrel China buys from that section of the Middle East is a barrel they're not buying somewhere else, driving up the price. We could even let them re-flag a bunch of oil tankers under the banner of China and restart global oil trade to the Persian Gulf tomorrow. China would benefit from that of course, but unless they decide to invade Taiwan tomorrow or something I don't see a problem with that. Not like it helps Iran at all (again, this is all provided China isn't somehow aiding them in the war, otherwise the US blocking their ships seems justifiable to me).

Meanwhile, every other nation in the world with a navy should be putting pressure on Iran to stop blocking their ships.

Re: Iran will impose fees on subsea internet cables in Strait of Hormuz

#94

Post by jdlshore »

anonymousiam wrote: post #78

It's pretty unlikely that this will happen. The government of Iran has made a lot of unreasonable demands, but has very little power to back them up.

The lack of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz says otherwise. If Iran can successfully blockade the Strait in the face of the full military might of the US, certainly they can cut an undersea cable.

Re: Iran will impose fees on subsea internet cables in Strait of Hormuz

#95

Post by DoctorOetker »

nazgulsenpai wrote: post #60

This is just so incredibly embarrassing. We're now negotiating to end a war with a country we have claimed to have defeated like 500 times now, over terms that will not even just return the region to the pre-war status quo, but (most likely) giving them more power than they had when the first bombs were dropped. Not to mention shattering the illusion that the US can somehow protect the gulf states, along with most of…

> (I say this with no sympathy to the Iranian government, just looking at reality.)

If we look at reality we see China is very active in Africa, and so also has undersea network cables (PEACE & 2Africa). If China allows this precedent to occur, they encourage any African nation nearby such cables to pull the same tricks on them. Hence a rational player in the shoes of China wouldn't allow this to happen. China should hint Iran that perhaps it should start addressing its real problems instead of making their problems someone else's problem again.

Re: Iran will impose fees on subsea internet cables in Strait of Hormuz

#96

Post by amanaplanacanal »

Ajedi32 wrote: post #73
mikestew wrote: post #2

"Esfandiary, of Bloomberg Economics, said Iran “theoretically knew” it had leverage over the strait but was uncertain how significant the impact would be if it acted on those threats. Now, she added, Tehran “has discovered the impact.” The thing that mystifies me is that U. S. war planners "theoretically knew" this, too; at least, I would assume. The whole war strikes me as the current administration finding out the…

The argument goes that, given the general disposition of Iran towards the US, its allies, and basically anyone who's not a Shiite Muslim, it wasn't a choice between war with Iran or no war with Iran. It was a choice between war with Iran now, or war with a stronger, possibly nuclear-armed Iran at some unspecified point in the future. Personally I disagree war was inevitable; time can change a lot of things and it doe…

Preemptives strikes against anybody who might be a threat sometime in the future seem like a really bad idea.

Re: Iran will impose fees on subsea internet cables in Strait of Hormuz

#97

Post by amanaplanacanal »

bluGill wrote: post #81
spankalee wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does being a net exporter even help? There's a global market and prices rise globally. US companies and consumers will pay more no matter if we're importing or exporting.

It means the us gains a lot from high prices. Different people see different effects of course, if you are not invested in oil it hurts.

US oil companies gain, you mean.

Re: Iran will impose fees on subsea internet cables in Strait of Hormuz

#98

Post by DoctorOetker »

jdlshore wrote: post #94
anonymousiam wrote: post #78

It's pretty unlikely that this will happen. The government of Iran has made a lot of unreasonable demands, but has very little power to back them up.

The lack of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz says otherwise. If Iran can successfully blockade the Strait in the face of the full military might of the US, certainly they can cut an undersea cable.

What prevents a consortium of network operators using similar hostage politics on Iran?

What prevents them from pooling together the funds for 2 decades of relentless cyberattacks on Iran, unless twice the same fee is payed in reverse to compensate for just the threat?

(currently unaffected network operators have an incentive to chip in, lest political factions local to or neighboring their cables start imitating Iran)

(unlike conventional warfare, cyberattacks can be highly directed to regime players, elites, etc. so targeting a network operator seems like the dumbest move one could make: conventional warfare can sometimes generate new supporters for the regime, hitting the elites or regime elements much less so)

Re: Iran will impose fees on subsea internet cables in Strait of Hormuz

#99

Post by Ajedi32 »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #96
Ajedi32 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument goes that, given the general disposition of Iran towards the US, its allies, and basically anyone who's not a Shiite Muslim, it wasn't a choice between war with Iran or no war with Iran. It was a choice between war with Iran now, or war with a stronger, possibly nuclear-armed Iran at some unspecified point in the future. Personally I disagree war was inevitable; time can change a lot of things and it doe…

Preemptives strikes against anybody who might be a threat sometime in the future seem like a really bad idea.

Certainly "might be a threat" is way too uncertain to act on. But if they're actively threatening "death to [your country]", sponsoring terrorist attacks on their neighbors, regularly shooting ballistic missiles at your allies, and quietly working on nukes in the background? That's a different matter.

Again, not saying I agree with a preemptive strike in this case, but it's pretty easy to understand why others might think it necessary even if the short-term economic consequences of that are unpleasant.

Re: Iran will impose fees on subsea internet cables in Strait of Hormuz

#100

Post by bluGill »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #97
bluGill wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It means the us gains a lot from high prices. Different people see different effects of course, if you are not invested in oil it hurts.

US oil companies gain, you mean.

Most are public so my 401k gains. Oil companies will expand in this scenario and those new employees pay taxes, both which benefit everyone in some way.

I drive an EV so I gain. Though most lose more than they gain, this isn't a complete loss for anyone.

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