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Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

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Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#91

Post by PAndreew »

ageitgey wrote: post #45
gpt5 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish it was true. I would gladly use a GPT 5.2 high model equivalent for coding (6 months old) if it was offered cheaper by Deepseek or Kimi. And I'm sure that's an extremely prevalent opinion by the millions of Claude and Codex users who are bothered by the costs. However, they just don't perform that well in practice. That's the real issue. You can actually see it when you move away from open benchmarks. Deep see…

Have you tried the latest DeepSeek v4 Pro inside of the Claude Code harness? It's not listed in that site. It definitely 'feels like' it is as good as Claude for many regular web app coding tasks (though I don't have real benchmarks). And it is comically cheap. I'm not suggesting it is better than the latest Claude or codex models, but it seems 'good enough' for a lot of use cases in my limited real world testing.

I'm starting to feel like a parrot, but people seem to forget that software engineering is actually a very narrow slice of the white collar pie. You don't need a mega-model which can reason about 100 000 lines of code when you want to create a nice PPT (which consumed literally hours of your life before) to impress your boss. SOTA models will probably be used for frontier research, complex coding tasks, large scale data analysis, etc. And the average Joe shall be able to buy a pre-configured box with a plug-and-play harness and run medium models air-gapped. Or use such models through cloud APIs dirt cheap if privacy is not a concern.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#92

Post by lugu »

cubefox wrote: post #50
terrib1e wrote: post #4

No mention of open weights anywhere in the piece, which is weird. Qwen, Llama, DeepSeek are months behind frontier, not years. If you're a European startup worried about getting cut off from Anthropic's API in 2027, the real question is what the open-weight frontier looks like then. Probably pretty capable. That undercuts most of the doom scenario. Also, he concedes Mythos-level capabilities will be cheap next year,…

Someone recently made a graph showing that the gap between US American frontier LLMs and Chinese open weight LLMs (including DeepSeek v4) is widening. Unfortunately I can't find it anymore. Update: GPT-5.5 found it. Article: https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/05/caisi-evaluati... Graph: https://www.nist.gov/sites/default/files/images/2026/05/01/1...

Someone is an official website of the united states gouvernement. I would prefer another source.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#93

Post by pjerem »

gpt5 wrote: post #83
applfanboysbgon wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Deep seek 3.2 is 4% on Arc-AGI 2 Why are you bringing up an outdated Chinese model from 6 months ago to compare to a US model from 6 months ago? The outdated Chinese model will have performance from ~12 months ago, obviously. But today's Chinese model DeepSeek 4 has performance not far from the US model 6 months ago; 46% compared to 52% from 5.2.

Because Deepseek 4.0 is not yet there, but the jump isn't expected to be large. Kimi 2.5 is there and is also scoring low.

Hum, I'm using it [0] with my Ollama Cloud subscription since the last two weeks and I love it. Never reached the 5 hours usage limits of the $20 plan (on side projects) where I would reach it sometimes in ONE prompt with Opus.

[0]: https://ollama.com/library/deepseek-v4-pro

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#94

Post by quink »

Animats wrote: post #66

Over on the image generation side, "frontier AI" seems to be coming along rather well. Watch this video, which was released eight days ago.[1] Can you find any flaws? Two years ago, just getting hands with the right number of fingers was tough. Last year, there were jarring errors in every scene. Now, very little is wrong. How much longer will anyone need Hollywood studios? [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zTCLIh…

And even if there weren’t any jarring errors, and rest assured there’s about a billion of them, there’s no appeal to this. It’s all context free short unassociated clips of pretty faces dancing on a beach. And?

There’s no narrative, there’s now sense of reality, it’s just a sense of here’s a million pixels of colours that have proven to go well with each other, it’s _slop_.

It’s been years and the only place AI has conquered in visual entertainment is as a subpar Photoshop replacement to fill in the B-roll gaps for those that don’t have the patience or money to do it the proper way.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#95

Post by ehnto »

coderenegade wrote: post #5

The distillation risk has been brewing for a while now. In a very real sense, the model is the data, so if the data is locked down because of how valuable it is, it was only a matter of time before fully open access to the models would be revoked. There's also an additional economic concern that rarely gets mentioned: because no one has cracked continual learning, keeping models up-to-date and filling in gaps in perf…

They are also not getting the same quantity or quality of data as was possible in the first years of "ingest". Compared to the beginning, from here on it is more like a drip feed of new training data. Still immense volumes of data, but we are talking 1 year of data production from society versus centuries of text and data ingested in a short time frame.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#96

Post by zozbot234 »

PAndreew wrote: post #91
ageitgey wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you tried the latest DeepSeek v4 Pro inside of the Claude Code harness? It's not listed in that site. It definitely 'feels like' it is as good as Claude for many regular web app coding tasks (though I don't have real benchmarks). And it is comically cheap. I'm not suggesting it is better than the latest Claude or codex models, but it seems 'good enough' for a lot of use cases in my limited real world testing.

I'm starting to feel like a parrot, but people seem to forget that software engineering is actually a very narrow slice of the white collar pie. You don't need a mega-model which can reason about 100 000 lines of code when you want to create a nice PPT (which consumed literally hours of your life before) to impress your boss. SOTA models will probably be used for frontier research, complex coding tasks, large scale d…

Creating a nice PPT is actually hard because it requires visual capabilities and so-called "computer use" (really, GUI use) of fiddly proprietary software. The nice thing about the coding case compared to a lot of disparate white-collar work is that it's all plain ASCII text. You can already ask a coding model to create a nice TeX/beamer slideshow (or whatever the Typst-based equivalent is) but whether your boss will be duly impressed by that is anyone's guess.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#97

Post by pjerem »

rTX5CMRXIfFG wrote: post #10
terrib1e wrote: post #4

No mention of open weights anywhere in the piece, which is weird. Qwen, Llama, DeepSeek are months behind frontier, not years. If you're a European startup worried about getting cut off from Anthropic's API in 2027, the real question is what the open-weight frontier looks like then. Probably pretty capable. That undercuts most of the doom scenario. Also, he concedes Mythos-level capabilities will be cheap next year,…

Affordability of hardware that can run local LLMs is a real factor, too. Not sure when RAM prices are going down, but with everything that’s happening and can happen in the world right now, it doesn’t look like it’ll drop in the near or medium-term

Open weight models does not means you can run them on your laptop (except for the small ones). It means that someone independent (a cloud provider, another company ...) can build big computers that are capable ton run those models and provide you a metered usage.

At the end of the day, as a consumer, you still pay per token (or per something) to your provider, except you can chose from multiple providers with your own criteria. If you want to use DeepSeek v4 hosted in Europe, it's possible.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#98

Post by energy123 »

gpt5 wrote: post #22
sho wrote: post #8

I am no-where near as concerned by this as I was a year ago, when I was expecting the axe to fall at any moment before the Chinese labs achieved some sort of escape velocity. I now think it's too late, all the cats are out of all the bags, there's no moat except maybe a temporal one of a few months, the genie is out of the bottle. There is no secret sauce the US labs have that the Chinese ones don't, or won't have so…

I wish it was true. I would gladly use a GPT 5.2 high model equivalent for coding (6 months old) if it was offered cheaper by Deepseek or Kimi. And I'm sure that's an extremely prevalent opinion by the millions of Claude and Codex users who are bothered by the costs. However, they just don't perform that well in practice. That's the real issue. You can actually see it when you move away from open benchmarks. Deep see…

They're not even that much cheaper (1/2 price per task according to Artificial Analysis) once you account for lower token usage of GPT-5.5. I can't justify it when factoring in the extra time wasted, and the cheap codex usage I get through the monthly plan. Frontier intelligence is not a commodity product ... yet.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#99

Post by energy123 »

usernametaken29 wrote: post #76
gpt5 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish it was true. I would gladly use a GPT 5.2 high model equivalent for coding (6 months old) if it was offered cheaper by Deepseek or Kimi. And I'm sure that's an extremely prevalent opinion by the millions of Claude and Codex users who are bothered by the costs. However, they just don't perform that well in practice. That's the real issue. You can actually see it when you move away from open benchmarks. Deep see…

I worked extensively on ARC AGI before and one thing is SURE as hell. OpenAI and Gemini in particular use this as marketing material. You can correlate the benchmark release with stock price increase. They feed synthetic datasets of ARC into their models to boost the numbers. There is no doubt in my mind Gemini is no better than DeepSeek other than being specifically fine tuned for ARC AGI. Heck, they even say so and…

Why do you think DeepSeek isn't also fine tuned on ARC AGI? Maybe they're more fine tuned on ARC AGI but still get worse scores. There's no way to know.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#100

Post by Morromist »

Animats wrote: post #66

Over on the image generation side, "frontier AI" seems to be coming along rather well. Watch this video, which was released eight days ago.[1] Can you find any flaws? Two years ago, just getting hands with the right number of fingers was tough. Last year, there were jarring errors in every scene. Now, very little is wrong. How much longer will anyone need Hollywood studios? [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zTCLIh…

It is a LOT better than 2 years ago, but there are flaws and its unpleasant to watch. The most easy to spot is their shoes (which they weren't wearing 1 second ago) flying off their feet without being kicked off in the first 10 seconds.

But if progress keeps going I'm sure it will get to the point where my brain doesn't feel sick after watching it. I hope so, because I'm sure there's a lot of AI videos in my future, whether I want them or not.

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