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Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

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Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#91

Post by watwut »

causal wrote: post #23

I think climate change is a compelling crisis but I find these types of “could maybe happen according to some models” type of catastrophic scenarios a little frustrating because they soak up a lot of attention with scary headlines, reinforcing hopelessness in those who care while providing ammunition to skeptics when the catastrophe doesn’t materialize. It’s also easy to question methodology for anyone who has done a…

> providing ammunition to skeptics when the catastrophe doesn’t materialize.

This would be compeling if they were actual sceptics who care about evidence. We are talking about people who will bad faith deny everything.

Censoring yourself is exactly what they wanted to achieve and did achieved.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#93

Post by ohnei »

Eji1700 wrote: post #68
grey-area wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk was 5% and is now above 50% according to experts in the field. Given the significant consequences this is worth paying attention to.

Which the average person doesn’t know because this is the 50th headline they’ve read on how we’re screwed today that hasn’t happened. They’ve blown their attention budget for the layman and aren’t getting it back unless someone serious guides their attention.

This isn't some accident, the public could understand many complex situations that just don't have billions of dollars in FUD propaganda networks that takeover the Whitehouse whenever the public is starting to get what it wants.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#94

Post by photochemsyn »

Just to list some uncertainties:

(1) Gulf Stream is a wind-driven western boundary current and the equatorial Atlantic is getting warmer and warmer so heat delivery is probably stable;

(2) Greenland melt rates are real and fresher ocean water won’t sink as much and could push northern surface currents south;

(3) Wind-driven upwelling (other end of the AMOC) is likely to stay stable so you have the suction pump effect;

(4) Atmospheric warming and overall climate conditions today are very different from that 12,000 ya system the article cites;

Regardless, dumping all this fossil CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere is definitely changing the climate system; but rather than cooling Europe and the UK I’d guess this will just reduce the warming rate in that region over the next 100 years, and it might cause problems with ocean hypoxia due to slower rates of deep water formation, impacting fish populations.

P.S. If you want to vet these claims, plug it into an LLM with this header: “ As an expert in global planetary science, give me some critiques with positive/negative paper references that both support and push back against each point (eight papers total please, prefer recent, then critique summary).”

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#95

Post by jaybrendansmith »

Europe needs to start taking this seriously. If they are really science-led and fact-based, they need to fund a series of additional studies to absolutely confirm a 37% loss by 2100, and run clean estimates and projections of the cost to heat Europe and replace shorter growing seasons as the AMOC slows over 25, 50, 75, and 100 years. They can then project the the total cost of the loss, and speak to the insurance and reinsurance companies to determine the cost of remediation. Money will move this needle, nothing else.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#96

Post by SoftTalker »

wongarsu wrote: post #43
john_alan wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate also doesn't change in macro over a lifetime. It's very real, but the notion that it's changing over a 5 year period is nonsense. things aren't "shutting off".

Looking back at the amount of snowfall I saw as a kid and the amount of snowfall I see now in my 30s, or at the number of hot summer days ... I find it hard to claim that climate is not changing over a lifetime. 20 years isn't even a lifetime, that's like 1/4th of a lifetime Maybe climate is more stable wherever you live

There's a problem with memories. You can have a snowy week and remember it as the entire winter, if it affected you in particularly memorable ways. Kids usually get out of school and play building snowmen and having snowball fights.

When I was a kid in the midwest USA, 100 degrees in the summer happened every once in a while. Still does. July and August were always hot. Still are. As a kid the heat didn't bother me so much, I'd go out and play in the sprinkler or go to the pool. Now, I've got to wear clothes and work. Makes the heat more noticable.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#97

Post by Tyrubias »

SoftTalker wrote: post #73
ck2 wrote: post #63

two absolute facts: 1. even if there was something humans could do about it, we won't, ever 2. insurance rates are the only "control". they will skyrocket and thereby the only change to select behavior human society allows "privatize the profits, socialize the costs" so that scales from the smallest to the largest models

Pretty much agree. Nature will fix the climate, after it eliminates (a large number of) the humans that are causing the problem. That's really the only way.

This is a cold-hearted way to think about it. The countless people who will suffer are not the ones causing the problem. The problem is caused by the billionaires willing to sacrifice human life and the environment for profit. They actively sow climate skepticism and encourage defunding of climate research to protect their bottom line. When extreme weather events kill millions, those billionaires will be safe in their bunkers. We can’t just condemn millions or even billions to death without trying to do anything about it.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#98

Post by [deleted] »

astahlx wrote: post #46
causal wrote: post #23

I think climate change is a compelling crisis but I find these types of “could maybe happen according to some models” type of catastrophic scenarios a little frustrating because they soak up a lot of attention with scary headlines, reinforcing hopelessness in those who care while providing ammunition to skeptics when the catastrophe doesn’t materialize. It’s also easy to question methodology for anyone who has done a…

In the past, these climate models were mostly on the conservative side. So I would stop questioning them and ask for more actions to take toward implementing existing climate solutions.

[deleted]

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#99

Post by mlhpdx »

causal wrote: post #23

I think climate change is a compelling crisis but I find these types of “could maybe happen according to some models” type of catastrophic scenarios a little frustrating because they soak up a lot of attention with scary headlines, reinforcing hopelessness in those who care while providing ammunition to skeptics when the catastrophe doesn’t materialize. It’s also easy to question methodology for anyone who has done a…

Agreed. This kind of provocative story gives many people the sense that science is unreliable, full of shifting narratives and unmet prophesies. That undermines the confidence we need in it as a society.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#100

Post by esseph »

postflopclarity wrote: post #80
Eji1700 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which the average person doesn’t know because this is the 50th headline they’ve read on how we’re screwed today that hasn’t happened. They’ve blown their attention budget for the layman and aren’t getting it back unless someone serious guides their attention.

> the 50th headline they’ve read on how we’re screwed today that hasn’t happened the things are happening though. e.g. if you read a headline in the 70s that said something like "ski seasons will shorten by an average of 1 day per year, leading to only 5 inches of snow water equivalent in Colorado resorts by 2026, and eliminating the economic viability of skiing in the northeast by 2060" that would have been complete…

It's a frog/boiling water problem with the timescale.
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