91–100 of 107 posts
Prediction markets are nothing more than gambling. Most people who gamble end up losing. If it were otherwise, running a gambling operation wouldn't be the enormously profitable endeavor that it is.
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Do people here and the WSJ comprehend though that they are giving Polymarket free publicity to farm addicts?
This is like saying that "Supersize me" is free publicity for MacDonalds.
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This is the trap of modern society. Think about what you're doing: instead of anything productive, you thought a good use of your time was sitting there staring at numbers, hoping to find a pattern to make money off of people; who in their own right are using insider information to game a system; which itself is set up to capitalize off the fact that the larger economy has failed, and now all that's left is to just m…
This comment is so patronizing because it's 2008 angst against the financial sector wrapped up in the assumption that the people participating in the financial sector aren't aware of that angst. We're deep in a hacker news comment thread, no one here should be beating the desk about productivity. I would recommend you look into Bullshit Jobs by David Graeber, where he makes an argument that 50% of American jobs are n…
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Have you heard of the Sucker Effect? Your gains come solely from the those who made the wrong bet. There is no inherent value generation in the prediction markets unlike the stock markets. Yes, there is money to be made, but at a net loss to the society, so many would not consider these bets "opportunities" but rather "gambling".
There is no value generation in trading stocks either beyond IPO, as stocks are then simply second-hand markets and can be completely irrational. The main value is just like the lottery : entertainment, excitment.
What's the difference between penny stocks and prediction markets?
I can't put a hit out in someone I don't like by buying penny stocks, but I can by placing a prediction market bet.
What's the difference between penny stocks and prediction markets?
The authorities heavily regulate penny stocks since Boiler rooms.
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> specifically mentioned "bettors" - day traders/speculators, not long time investors Forex is zero sum before fees and negative sum after. It’s distinct from capital markets. I wouldn’t extrapolate losses from FX.
It's the same loss percentage for stocks day trading. The loses do not come mainly from the zero sum/fees, they come from the lack of alpha. > Depending on the source, only around 3% to 20% of day traders make money. But that 20% estimate probably has as much to do with the time period studied—the dotcom bubble. It's hard to know for sure, but it's probably fair to say that up to 95% of day traders lose money. https:…
The Investoperia article cites three sources for that claim, the second which claims one third [1].
One fifth to one third is more in line with what I expected. It’s also a range materially higher than 5%. Broadly speaking, you’ll see 90/10 to 95/5 in zero-sum markets like FX and derivatives, and 80/20 to 70/30 for capital markets.
[1] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v59.n6.2578?...
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This comment is so patronizing because it's 2008 angst against the financial sector wrapped up in the assumption that the people participating in the financial sector aren't aware of that angst. We're deep in a hacker news comment thread, no one here should be beating the desk about productivity. I would recommend you look into Bullshit Jobs by David Graeber, where he makes an argument that 50% of American jobs are n…
I'm well aware of "Bullshit Jobs", but that's more support for my conclusion that the modern economy has failed. Why do we have people doing bullshit jobs rather than something else? My argument is taken to its logical conclusion plenty of places in this economy, it's just not evenly distributed -- just look at the minimum wage being $7/hr juxtaposed next to an extra value mean being $12. That's a failed economy, sor…
There honestly isn't that much else left to do. Most of us in the western world are incredibly well fed, well housed, well transported, well educated, well defended, and well cared for(health/dental). Sure, all of that could be better and/or cheaper, but by historical standards we are doing incredibly well. We're engaging in all of these activities with only a fraction of the people that were spent on it in the past, and the people that are working directly in these fields are more productive than ever.
We're talking care of our societal needs with fewer people than ever before. What exactly do you expect the rest of us to do with our time and how will it be anything other than bullshit?
Everytime someone loses money on a bad bet in a prediction market, it's an opportunity for them to learn something about ~~counter-party risk~~ adverse selection. You could easily make the argument that the more people are losing in prediction markets, the more learning is happening.
Betting venues can make money on transaction volume rather than holding an edge against their customers on the actual bets.
I realize I'm an N of 1, but I've participated in prediction markets since 2019 and am just above 5 figures in profit. Not life-changing money, but it certainly doesn't hurt. I'm pretty conservative in my predictions and just think there is a lot of free money on these sites. Maybe that just supports the sentiments of this article and most of the negative comments on this post. There are certainly cases where I got r…
Have you heard of the Sucker Effect? Your gains come solely from the those who made the wrong bet. There is no inherent value generation in the prediction markets unlike the stock markets. Yes, there is money to be made, but at a net loss to the society, so many would not consider these bets "opportunities" but rather "gambling".