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Just prediction markets? They should be banned from all trading and active investing, period.
What about friends, family, neighbors, and benefactors? Prediction markets should be illegal period.
There is a valid purpose for (some) trades in a prediction market, namely as a form of insurance/risk management for specific risks a company or individual might have. For example, if you are a company whose current business would be severely hurt if a particular piece of legislation passes, it might make sense to hedge that risk by placing a bet on a prediction market that the legislation will pass. That way, if you…
I am not taking a position, I am wondering.
When they started they were an academic curiosity and experiment. Now they are becoming a social phenomenon are they more harmful than, say, stamp collecting?
"Fools and their money" is OK so long as the fools are truly volunteering, surely?
What about Senate staff?
the rules apply to senators, officers and staff
Just prediction markets? They should be banned from all trading and active investing, period.
But then how will they make money? They only make a $174k base salary and a 15% cap on how much they can earn from other employment sources. I'm only saying this semi sarcastically. Often the senator's aides earn more than the senators themselves.
Kalshi and its peers are legal because they’re commodity futures trading, not gambling.¹ Are senators not allow to buy any commodities futures now (it reads like it)? ¹ I , and I think most reasonable people, think this is ridiculous - it’s obviously gambling in a trenchcoat, but that’s what they claim…
Whereas prediction markets (and some other stock market/commodity option contracts) are explicitly tied to an event. They're saying "I'll give you $1 if this clearly defined event occurs."
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Agreed. One thing I appreciate about New Hampshire’s state congress is their pay is fixed at $100/year.
Great way to ensure only the independently wealthy can participate in politics.
New Hampshire is number one freest state[2], 20th place for GDP per capita[3], 8th happiest state in the nation[4], and second-safest state in the nation[5]. They must be doing something right.
[1] https://theturnaroundauthority.com/2014/07/02/professions-of...
[2] https://www.freedominthe50states.org/overall/new-hampshire
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territ...
[4] https://wallethub.com/edu/happiest-states/6959
[5] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/crime-and-c...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Every large company should ban employees and contractors from trading on prediction markets. There are so many ways an employee could make money on prediction markets. Causing outages is probably the easiest, but anything that would get the company in the news would do it.
I find this argument entirely unconvincing. AWS’s massive outage lead to a significant jump in the stock price. No single grunt level employee has the power to affect any large company’s share price.
good. and the restriction shouldn’t stop at U.S. Senators. anyone with a major influence in their field should be banned from using these prediction/betting apps. as an NBA fan, I was shocked when I saw the reports about Milwaukee star Giannis allegedly using Kalshi to “predict” his own future team during the last NBA trade deadline. how is that even allowed? he even went on to promote the prediction app the day afte…
We've seen OpenAI employees get caught insider trading on prediction markets for new model releases.
Every human is privy to some sort of exclusive information. Polymarket and the likes offer predictions on just about everything that has any relevancy. Sports, Technology, eSports, Politics.
You don't have to have "major influence" to be a beneficiary of insider trading.