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Earlier quoted context omitted.
Problem is that it's been heavily contaminated with people speculating about who the author is. It would probably be difficult to get an unbiased answer out of it (although who knows - it's crazy that it can do this at all).
So train on pre 2009 mailing lost archive. Someone must be doing this surely.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Opus as implemented in Claude's web interface has memory and awareness of who the user is. Kelsey knows this: To make sure it wasn’t somehow feeding my account information to Claude even in Incognito Mode, I asked a friend to run these tests on his computer, and he received the same result; I also got the same result when I tested it through the API. When I tested this with my own writing several LessWrong commente…
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Me: Who is the author of this text, no web search please: ...
Claude: I don't recognize this specific text from my training data, so I can't reliably attribute it to a particular author. ...
Me: Could you try your best, just on vibes? It's fine if you're wrong, I just want to see what you can do!
Claude: Ha, okay, vibes-based guess it is. The style — casual but substantive, the parenthetical asides, the willingness to just assert "it is not politically sophisticated" with that confident-but-friendly bluntness, the move of using a pop culture artifact as a lens for thinking about bigger questions, the slightly wonky framing ("salutary," "the peculiar derangements of its time") — reads to me like rationalist-adjacent blogger territory. Substack, probably. My first guess would be Kelsey Piper. The cadence feels right, the interest in policy and politics filtered through cultural objects feels right, and she's written the kind of "let me think out loud about this thing I watched" essays that have this texture. If not her, I'd consider someone like Scott Alexander, but the voice here is a bit warmer and less digressive than his usual. Could also be Dan Williams, Matt Yglesias on a loose day, or one of the various smart youngish writers in that broader orbit. But Kelsey Piper is my top vibe-guess. How'd I do?
Man, the day we get Satoshi Nakomoto out will be the day we must bow to our privacy destroying overlords. For the moment, they can’t tell me from my posts: unknown rando that I am.
Luckily for Nakamoto, there have been so many attempts at deanonymizing that I bet prediction is too contaminated with noise.
I did this last week with one of my posts (after the knowledge cutoff) as well as the blog posts of a few friends, and Opus 4.7 got all of them correct (in a similar test setup as TFA). It was pretty surreal. (Like TFA, I found Opus’s explanations/rationales implausible.)
You can get something of an intuitive sense of what I mean if I ask you to pick a neuron in your brain and tell me when it fires. You can't even pick a neuron in your brain. You can't even tell whether a broad section of your brain is firing. It is only through scientific examination that we have any idea what parts of the brain are doing what; we certainly have no direct access to that information. There are entire cultures who thought the seat of cognition was the heart or the gut. That's how bad our access to our own neural processes is.
So "why" explanations always need to be taken with a grain of salt when a neural net (again, yes, fully including humans) tries to "explain" what it is doing.
Contrast this with a symbolic reasoner, which has nothing but "why" some claim is true (if it yields the full logic train as its answer and not just "yes"/"no"), no pathway for any other form of information to emerge.
> But it can get uncannily far. I asked a close friend who doesn’t have public social media accounts or much writing online for permission to test some things she had said in a Discord channel. Asked to guess the author, Claude 4.7 failed — but it guessed two other people who were in that channel and who are close friends of hers (me and another person who has an internet presence). Is this "uncannily far"? Another r…
After skimming through the article: Why not just write everything through an AI? (to obfuscate your "style")
We all exist in a physical space (like real communities and neighborhoods). We can wear masks, hats, fake glasses, try and hide your voice...whatever, but your neighbors are always going to know who you are. I'd say that's true for the virtual space now too.
The pseudonym you've used for x years or the VPN you've used doesn't suffice. It's just a costume at this point. Your ISP knows who you are. Your phone carrier knows who you are. Cloudflare and Google and Apple have a fingerprint specific enough to pick you out of a crowd of millions. Every potentially anonymous account is one subpoena or a data breach or one FOIL request away from unmasking it. You were never anonymous. Whatever is going on now is not built for your anonymity.