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Mistral built a $14B AI empire by not being American

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Re: Mistral built a $14B AI empire by not being American

#91

In my opinion, being "Not American" or "Not Chinese" is not a good business model long-term. At some point, businesses will choose the option that provides the most value. I'm very skeptical that Mistral will survive long-term. Edit: I hear the commenters to this post. However, Mistral still relies on American chips. If there is truly a divorce between Europe and the US such that relying OpenAI or Anthropic is not an…

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Re: Mistral built a $14B AI empire by not being American

#93
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Because companies here actively want to avoid breaking the law Haha, yeah sure. What other fairy tales you gonna tells us next? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens#2005_and_continuing:_w... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parmalat_bankruptcy_timeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus#Bribery_allegations https…

Yes, European companies break the law too. However, the comment this was about literally mocked the companies that are actively trying to follow the law. So yes, such companies exist and plenty of people see their existence as a good thing rather then something to mock.

Law has no virtue in and of itself.

Re: Mistral built a $14B AI empire by not being American

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would that work? What it means for the US AI bubble to burst is that tremendous amounts of inference capacity become open for pennies on the dollar. I don't see how Mistral is or could be sheltered from that.

SLAs that are valuable to their clients, guarantees and mechanisms to protect them from data exfiltration, and generally long-term contracts with cash-stable orgs like they're currently doing. So long as they're sufficiently liquid at the right time, they don't really need to shelter more. They need to plan for a fire sale on the bulk of their operating expenses.

It's extremely hard to plan for a fire sale on the bulk of your operating expenses when all of your customers can see the fire sale happening and know they're now paying you way too much. That's the whole intuition of a general "US AI bubble"; if OpenAI filed for bankruptcy tomorrow, most people expect that would be a crisis for Anthropic and Gemini rather than a windfall opportunity to pick up their compute for cheap.

Re: Mistral built a $14B AI empire by not being American

#96

In my opinion, being "Not American" or "Not Chinese" is not a good business model long-term. At some point, businesses will choose the option that provides the most value. I'm very skeptical that Mistral will survive long-term. Edit: I hear the commenters to this post. However, Mistral still relies on American chips. If there is truly a divorce between Europe and the US such that relying OpenAI or Anthropic is not an…

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Re: Mistral built a $14B AI empire by not being American

#97
post #4
post #3

I am a Mistral Le Chat Pro subscriber. I specifically chose to test their offerings because they are European. I don't have the necessary local hardware to run really big models, therefore need to choose a cloud provider if I want LLM action. I find the antics of Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft distasteful and avoid their products where I can. After testing Le Chat and Devstral-2 for a while, I felt their offeri…

There is also risk from a US regulatory side as recent drama around antrophic showed. Don’t think it’s inconceivable that the clowns in power decide to limit api access out of the blue one day because someone whispered a conspiracy theory in someone’s ear. API blockade… See also the constant flip flopping on what cards NVIDIA can export - no consistency in stance or coherent policy

You are conflating three very different things.

The thing with Anthropic and the military was about whether vendors can tell the military what operations it's permitted to do. It has no bearing on the commercial sector, and isn't actually about AI.

The thing with NVIDIA cards is a continuation of how we've restricted tech exports for quite a while. You can find old news articles about game consoles being export-restricted over nuclear proliferation concerns. This AI-related one was about whether or not custom AI models are relevant to national security, and whether restricting graphics card sales can have a meaningful impact on them.

Any issue with selling chat tokens internationally would be more akin to the recent tariff shenanigans.

Re: Mistral built a $14B AI empire by not being American

#98
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Because companies here actively want to avoid breaking the law Haha, yeah sure. What other fairy tales you gonna tells us next? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens#2005_and_continuing:_w... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parmalat_bankruptcy_timeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus#Bribery_allegations https…

Let me rephrase this: companies want to avoid breaking the law unknowingly, because their US providers are going to break the law without notice, willingly or unwillingly. Plenty of corporations are willing to break the rules, but never for free.

> because their US providers are going to break the law without notice, willingly or unwillingly

This is a weird hill to die on because it's not true. I can't find anything to support your world view and if anything evidence points to the contrary. Europe has a deliberately more complex legal framework, usually in the hopes of keeping out foreign competition (although it's dubious whether or not that actually works).

Re: Mistral built a $14B AI empire by not being American

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> $14B in AI terms is like 'second-best VSCode fork' tier money Yep, and the comparison relies on key people believing the valuations. Lots of mature companies will want their providers to be reasonably sheltered from the fallout of a coming US AI bubble burst.

How would that work? What it means for the US AI bubble to burst is that tremendous amounts of inference capacity become open for pennies on the dollar. I don't see how Mistral is or could be sheltered from that.

Btw, this makes a great argument for workers' rights - if you have a company who owns datacenters - well, you can't fire your GPUs to make your Q2 look better

Re: Mistral built a $14B AI empire by not being American

#100

Indirectly I use Mistral daily: I like Proton’s Lumo private chat and that runs on Mistral technology. Something like Lumo is very much good enough to replace search and general information browsing and for me is very practical. What is not so practical is my paying for Gemini Ultra, which has some practicality but is something I pay for because it is fun using strong AIs like Claude and Gemini Pro in AntiGravity. It…

I'm looking forward to have a more extensive Kagi API and link that to Lumo. I tried it with Claude and it works pretty well but is too expensive right now. I would love to have more flexibility.
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