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If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

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Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#91

Post by polotics »

imoverclocked wrote: post #51
chias wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but why would anybody choose blue? there is no moral benefit to doing so. If you altered the game to say that only some fraction of the population get the choice, and everyone who doesn't get the choice is assumed blue (or, is killed if less than 50% of voters choose blue) then there's some question to be explored here. But at it stands there is literally no reason to choose blue.

There will always be someone who chooses blue. Choosing red is choosing to kill them.

I fail to see how anyone could choose blue, the certain scenario is everyone chooses red, and this whole post is a nothingburger.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#92

Post by polotics »

xenocratus wrote: post #80
cg5280 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Red is optimal from a self preservation perspective but is also the antisocial option. Picking blue saves everyone.

Let me rephrase that for you: red is for people who live in this world and accept it, blue is for people with white knight syndrome. OR. Red is for people who understand statistics, blue is for people who like to gamble.

Blue is what gamble? there is no gain associated with choosing blue over red, just pointless risk-taking with only at best a zero outcome.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#93

Post by empthought »

blululu wrote: post #84
empthought wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This one explicitly is not.

It’s a made up toy problem. It exists for fun. The stated problem has some implicit assumptions. But you can rejigger the rules and assumptions to tweak the incentives and ethics. That’s the whole point. You could take the puzzle and apply it to a band of pirates held in a jail. That might make the outcome more obvious. Or you could imagine what would happen if the voting order were sequential. These are all just dif…

Yes, but those are different thought experiments from this one.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#94

Post by owenpalmer »

swed420 wrote: post #88
owenpalmer wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it worse? Wouldn't the red people end up with more like-minded red people?

Yes, the selfish-minded would end up with more selfish-minded people, and they'd be confused why their "low trust society" became even more low trust overnight.

Perhaps red is selfish, but blue is most certainly foolish.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#95

Post by swed420 »

owenpalmer wrote: post #94
swed420 wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the selfish-minded would end up with more selfish-minded people, and they'd be confused why their "low trust society" became even more low trust overnight.

Perhaps red is selfish, but blue is most certainly foolish.

Or blue doesn't want to live in the world where only selfish/cynical people remain.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#96

Post by empthought »

troglodytetrain wrote: post #72

I would describe it like this. We are all standing on the edge of a cliff. You can choose the 'Red' option. That option means you don't jump off the cliff. Or you can choose the 'Blue' option. You jump off the cliff. If 50% of individuals choose also the 'Blue' option then there will be a net to catch you so you don't all die. So, now we agree? Red option it is every time.

Yes, when you completely rephrase the problem you will have different sentiments.

The thought experiment demands that the phrasing that was used actually be used, and you don’t get a chance to show the dumb blue people how smart you are before they pick their button.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#97

Post by bennettnate5 »

ertgbnm wrote: post #54
wavemode wrote: post #11

This is like a prisoner's dilemma, but with no payoff for the risky option. In a prisoner's dilemma, you can choose a risky option (stay quiet), but the potential reward is that if the other prisoner also stays quiet then you both go completely free. But if one prisoner instead speaks up and accuses the other prisoner, the accuser gets a short sentence and the one who stayed quiet gets a max sentence. But in this sce…

The downside of redding is that some portion of the world probably dies and you now have to live in that worse world that if you and 50% of the rest of the world has just blued, would not have happened.

I'm wondering if it's really the framing of the problem that's inflating the number of individuals responding with blue (similar to certain confusingly-worded ballot measures).

Suppose the problem were worded in a more concrete way: "I have a large container ship that I'm draining the ballasts out of tomorrow. If less than 50% of get on the ship, it will capsize and everyone who chose to get on it will die. You can choose either to get on the ship (blue button) or refuse to (red button)."

Would one hold a person guilty for not getting on the ship? Would a perfectly empathetic person even board that ship?

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#98

Post by troglodytetrain »

empthought wrote: post #96
troglodytetrain wrote: post #72

I would describe it like this. We are all standing on the edge of a cliff. You can choose the 'Red' option. That option means you don't jump off the cliff. Or you can choose the 'Blue' option. You jump off the cliff. If 50% of individuals choose also the 'Blue' option then there will be a net to catch you so you don't all die. So, now we agree? Red option it is every time.

Yes, when you completely rephrase the problem you will have different sentiments. The thought experiment demands that the phrasing that was used actually be used, and you don’t get a chance to show the dumb blue people how smart you are before they pick their button.

The problem isn't rephrased. Option Red = 0% chance of death, Option Blue = chance of death but maybe you can be the hero and save everyone.

So we all choose option Red and you, the hero, chose Blue. Congratulations, we will write some nice words on your tombstone.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#99

Post by empthought »

bennettnate5 wrote: post #89
eesmith wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One button means you almost certainly contributed to homicide, since the odds of everyone pressing red is essentially 0%. The other one does not contribute to homicide. The right answer, by the way, is to not press either button. "The only winning move is not to play."

Let me frame it another way and see if you still consider it homicide: There's a cruise ship that needs to have a certain weight in order to not capsize. That weight threshold happens to be at 50% of the population (for whatever population we're considering in the original question). If the ship capsizes, everyone on it dies. You're given the option: either get on the cruise ship or don't. Not to take an actual cruis…

You don’t get to reframe the problem with different wording or circumstances to demonstrate your intelligence to others before they choose and you choose. That’s part of the thought experiment.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#100

Post by enoint »

owenpalmer wrote: post #78
ertgbnm wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The downside of redding is that some portion of the world probably dies and you now have to live in that worse world that if you and 50% of the rest of the world has just blued, would not have happened.

Is it worse? Wouldn't the red people end up with more like-minded red people?

Yes and yes. Without the core of blue workers, red people will need to open Atlas Shrugged about how to assign short order cook duty.
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