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ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

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Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#91
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think something like this wins that category: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Interconnection

I suppose it's partly a semantic question that hinges on what you count as a single "machine" and what's a system or a network.

The fact that there’s more than one copy of TWINSCAN EXE 5k seems important

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#92
post #85

Hey, author of the piece here. Glad people seem to have enjoyed it. If you're looking for more sources on ASML/EUV I put together a bibliography of things I looked at while writing the piece https://neilhacker.com/2026/04/28/asml-article-bibliography/

Who ruled this the most complex machine? And by what metric?

There's a thing in writing where you can make bold claims in order to give the reader an idea about what the rest of the article is going to be about - that's whats happening here, a bit of editorializing .. but do you know of a more complex machine than the ASML/TSMC production line, in terms of inputs/outputs?

I think, if one were used to calculating cyclomatic complexity, such a headline is not only amusing, but also fascinating even if it is 'wrong' by .. some value system .. because the thought exercise to come up with a more cyclomatically complex machine, is rather a fruitful challenge. And that is why writers should be allowed to editorialize, because .. after all .. this is a thought-provoking article, isn't it ..

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#93
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't make desktop computer 4 times larger but there's very little preventing you form putting 4 racks where you had 1 before. If the floor space is the expensive part of data center then probably some incentives are misaligned.

Bigger chips = more distance to cover for your electrons = more power required = more generated heat = slower throughput for your data. Surely you don't believe that the entire chip industry had not thought of "wait what if we just make the chips bigger".

The main reason to reduce feature size since quite some time has been to make more money per wafer, and faster.

Same reason that so much work was put into increasing wafer diameter over the decades.

More chips per wafer means a lot.

Much more than for performance sake.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#94
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who ruled this the most complex machine? And by what metric?

There's a thing in writing where you can make bold claims in order to give the reader an idea about what the rest of the article is going to be about - that's whats happening here, a bit of editorializing .. but do you know of a more complex machine than the ASML/TSMC production line, in terms of inputs/outputs? I think, if one were used to calculating cyclomatic complexity, such a headline is not only amusing, but a…

so it had an unusual amount of inputs and outputs? that's the measure?

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#95
post #87

It's been mentioned before, but Chris Miller's Chip War from a few years back is an excellent, very-readable book on the topic. Goes into depth on the history and development of chips and their production. He did the rounds on the interviews back then, and it's definitely worth a read. The EUV stuff is great, but I particularly liked his history on how the USSR was always going to lose and how integral Apollo really…

Chip War is an interesting book, but it has a lot of errors, which made it frustrating to read. For instance, it said that vacuum tube computers were hardly usable because they attracted moths, so they required constant debugging and were only used in specialized applications like cryptography. This is wrong in many ways. Most notably, Grace Hopper's story of the moth was in the Harvard Mark II computer, a relay comp…

Don't have it in front of me so I can't comment on the actual language, but wasn't ENIAC designed for the purpose of firing tables, but the time it was "completed" got used for e.g. H-bomb?

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#96
post #82

Is the ASML machine actually the world's most complex machine under some metric, or is this a claim that someone made up? I.e., did someone actually compare the ASML machine to the Space Shuttle, LHC, Internet, and so forth and show that it is more complex under some definition? (I've done various historical questions, so I'm sensitive to how statements are sourced.) An orthogonal question is what makes sense as a me…

I've heard that US nuclear subs actually take the crown, but the design is so secret, that there's no way to verify.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a thing in writing where you can make bold claims in order to give the reader an idea about what the rest of the article is going to be about - that's whats happening here, a bit of editorializing .. but do you know of a more complex machine than the ASML/TSMC production line, in terms of inputs/outputs? I think, if one were used to calculating cyclomatic complexity, such a headline is not only amusing, but a…

so it had an unusual amount of inputs and outputs? that's the measure?

For this thought experiment I would welcome you to contribute another measure besides cyclomatic complexity as a means of ascertaining the truth of the matter, because after all complexity is multi-dimensional, but on the basis of number of actual things that have to be qualitatively measured in order for the machine to function as intended, I can think of a few other big machines that would be in scope, but - as a person who does complex systems work professionally - I'm pretty sure that the editorializing was a way to kick off some neurons in the intended audience, and not much more than that.

However, let us continue to postulate there are other forms of complexity that can be measured - what would you suggest are the other 3 or 4 contenders for the title?

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Non-zero chances - yes. Unavoidable - I wouldn't be so sure. I can't imagine how many top human-hours and cutting-edge inventions involved to construct this machine. And much of this simply cannot be stolen or bought, no matter how much money you have.

It has never happened in the history of the world that a company or country could maintain its technological advance indefinitely. Either China will catch up on this or that particular technology will become obsolete. But it is certain that they won't stay behind forever (measured in a small number of decades at most).

This is kind of like saying you can prove everyone dies based on the evidence that everyone who is not currently alive has died.

You might place an upper limit using history but in this case I'd guess that limit would end up being much larger than the present semiconductor industry itself might last.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#99
post #82

Is the ASML machine actually the world's most complex machine under some metric, or is this a claim that someone made up? I.e., did someone actually compare the ASML machine to the Space Shuttle, LHC, Internet, and so forth and show that it is more complex under some definition? (I've done various historical questions, so I'm sensitive to how statements are sourced.) An orthogonal question is what makes sense as a me…

Or more complex than, you know, one of the CPUs it can produce, with four billion transistors, which is not "mostly the same thing repeated"?

Off topic: Does it blow anyone else's mind that a DRAM chip has more transistors on it than there are humans on the planet?

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#100
post #82

Is the ASML machine actually the world's most complex machine under some metric, or is this a claim that someone made up? I.e., did someone actually compare the ASML machine to the Space Shuttle, LHC, Internet, and so forth and show that it is more complex under some definition? (I've done various historical questions, so I'm sensitive to how statements are sourced.) An orthogonal question is what makes sense as a me…

> NASA says the Space Shuttle has 2.5 million moving parts, while the article says the ASML machine has over 100,000 components.

I don’t know that many people would classify the Space Shuttle as a machine. It doesn’t make anything.

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