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Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

theguardian.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#91

Post by azan_ »

ModernMech wrote: post #49
azan_ wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How?

Once the capitalists get enough control of the government they rig everything for themselves. In a capitalist system money is paramount and they have the most of it, so their opinion is regarded higher than everyone else's. Once capitalists rig the system for themselves, the only way to get ahead is just pure luck or connections. Sine not everyone can be connected, luck is all that's left for most people, so it becom…

It’s interesting take for sure. However it appears that in real life nowadays most millionaires are self made. I was surprised when I found out about it too. Seems to contradict your thesis.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#92

Post by falcor84 »

yunohn wrote: post #74
falcor84 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, I don't think people should have access to these at all, but at the same time, I think that the average Joe would be a better custodian of these than Trump and Netanyahu. My hope is that equal access might make us stop treating these things as if they are ok.

This has clearly worked out well with giving guns to the entire US population…

It definitely hasn't, but my argument would be in favor of making regular police forces be unarmed as well, like in the UK.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#93

Post by PaulRobinson »

Every shareholder of an arms company (or holder of an index tracker), is betting on war too.

This mechanism is stupid, corrupt and driving extreme behaviour.

But betting on war is not new, and I find it abhorrent that people will hand wave away the military-industrial complex as an essential component to modern civilisation while calling individuals making bets on war horrible names.

It's just scale and semantics, not core differences to my eye.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#94

Post by cyanydeez »

miki123211 wrote: post #61
jancsika wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that necessarily true? E.g., suppose I'm grocery shopping online and get put in behavioral histogram bin #1. You're in bin #2 because of stuff like impulsive browsing habits and low battery. Your bin's price for chips is consequently x% more expensive than mine. Now, suppose both of us get separate uber rides from the same location. Similar data bins end up with your low battery generating y% higher price for your…

The truth is, price differentiation is something we've been doing for centuries , just with much worse heuristics. People are triggered when you frame it in terms of one cohort paying more than the rest. However, if there's a sticker price that basically nobody pays, with most customers getting a discount based on how rich the heuristics say they are, that's suddenly fine. Transit tickets work this way in most of Eur…

You know what else we've been doing? Replacing 2 consumers with 1 consumer when the 1 consumer has more money and is easier to statisfy. Eventually it'll be a couple of billionairs selling a few boner pills for a few million dollars.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#95

Post by nout »

ModernMech wrote: post #49
azan_ wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How?

Once the capitalists get enough control of the government they rig everything for themselves. In a capitalist system money is paramount and they have the most of it, so their opinion is regarded higher than everyone else's. Once capitalists rig the system for themselves, the only way to get ahead is just pure luck or connections. Sine not everyone can be connected, luck is all that's left for most people, so it becom…

I think the main cause (that's actually quite anti-capitalist) is that banks and people at power have the ability to create money out of nothing, to lend the money into existence, while devaluing everyone else.

It was very interesting to me where I finally understood how banks (and the overall system) create money. As a bank you start with 0 money, you lend 100 to some person that you "deposit" into their account at your bank. So now on your books you have 100 in liabilities (the money that the person has in your account) and 100 in assets (the money the person owes you). So accounting is balanced. You did not need money to start with, as a bank you just "lend it into existence".

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#96

Post by NeutralCrane »

chollida1 wrote: post #64
cyanydeez wrote: post #2

'Capitalism': the inevitable reduction of all humanity to fungible currency

That may be true, but capitalism has nothing to do wit betting or prediction markets. You can have those with any government or market style.

With an individual tendency towards betting? No. But I think Capitalism absolutely is a huge part of the fanatical drive to financialize everything, and the broader regulatory environment that enables the creation of entities like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#98

Post by Natfan »

falcor84 wrote: post #92
yunohn wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has clearly worked out well with giving guns to the entire US population…

It definitely hasn't, but my argument would be in favor of making regular police forces be unarmed as well, like in the UK.

we have armed police, just not all police are armed

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#99

Post by NeutralCrane »

b65e8bee43c2ed0 wrote: post #87
testing22321 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Resources would not be scarce if some people were not hoarding.

hoarding what? you could dekulak all 3500 billionaires, magically transmute their make believe money into hard cash, and that $20 trillion would yield less than $2500 per human. hooray?

You say that as if there aren’t an enormous amount of people for whom $2500 isn’t an enormous amount of money. Even in wealthy nations like the US, that equates to approximately 7% of the personal income for the average person. But for the 65% of the world’s population living on $10 or less per day, that is an increase of 77% or more on their yearly income.

But more important than the cash is the power that money buys. Defenestrating the uber-wealthy of their undue influence in society would have far reaching benefits beyond just money in people’s bank accounts.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#100

Post by watwut »

azan_ wrote: post #91
ModernMech wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once the capitalists get enough control of the government they rig everything for themselves. In a capitalist system money is paramount and they have the most of it, so their opinion is regarded higher than everyone else's. Once capitalists rig the system for themselves, the only way to get ahead is just pure luck or connections. Sine not everyone can be connected, luck is all that's left for most people, so it becom…

It’s interesting take for sure. However it appears that in real life nowadays most millionaires are self made. I was surprised when I found out about it too. Seems to contradict your thesis.

Musk and Trump got into goverment and are getting rid of everything not for them. While paying huge amounts of money to themselves.
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