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Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

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Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#91

Post by manarth »

mhitza wrote: post #20
somedude895 wrote: post #14

For anyone thinking negative prices is a good thing: It's not. It's a panic signal because there are no takers for an oversupply of energy, making the grid unstable.

1. They could export the surplus. No? 2. Isn't cheaper electricity a good thing for the manufacturing industry?

    > "They could export the surplus"
Negative prices generally indicate that the transmission connections are already saturated: as much energy as possible (or financially/technically acceptable to the third parties) is already being exported.

Transmission capacity and interconnectors are usually the bottlenecks.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#92

Post by manarth »

paule89 wrote: post #25
mcintyre1994 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the UK you can get energy plans with a price that updates every half hour, published a day ahead. From 12:30pm - 4pm today that price is negative. It was also negative for around 16 hours of Easter Sunday. https://www.octopriceuk.app/agile

Well dynamic pricing only ever works until you have a power outage in the winter and suddenly you pay a years worth of money for the 1 hour you could use your fridge, during a snowstorm.

Consumer pricing in the UK is regulated with a price cap (per kWh), so consumers can't be fleeced in an unexpected event.

Business energy users aren't protected, so they buy long-term contracts, hedge, or go-under in the event of an unforeseen energy-shortage.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#93

Post by readthenotes1 »

dgacmu wrote: post #87
notTooFarGone wrote: post #6

If it were just easy to buy a bunch of batteries and profit from this by selling the same energy during evening/night. But that is only reserved for the big players I guess.

I don't sell mine, but I time-shift with a small pile of batteries (about 10kWh) and it's pretty reasonable. I save about usd $30/month. It's basically a big ups that will pay for itself in ten years, and I get backup power.

So in 10 years when you have to buy new batteries, what do you expect the payoff time to reset to?

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#94

Post by cubefox »

__d wrote: post #32
cubefox wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately Germany closed down its nuclear power plants.

They would find it hard to compete with negative prices too.

Not at all. The prices aren't negative during the night or on overcast days.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#95

Post by dgacmu »

readthenotes1 wrote: post #93
dgacmu wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't sell mine, but I time-shift with a small pile of batteries (about 10kWh) and it's pretty reasonable. I save about usd $30/month. It's basically a big ups that will pay for itself in ten years, and I get backup power.

So in 10 years when you have to buy new batteries, what do you expect the payoff time to reset to?

I don't. The batteries will last longer than 10 years. The 10 year typical advertised lifetime of lifepo4 is to 80% capacity, and I'll just keep on using them.

The actual payoff calculation is a lot messier than that because you have to factor in the NPV of buying batteries vs. just throwing the money in the market, AND you have to be able to forecast that growth vs. growth in power prices. So the honest truth is I have no idea if it's going to be a net good investment vs other options.

Fortunately, I don't have to care, because I bought the batteries for UPS runtime, which I value independent of the time-shifting. The time-shifting is just a way to squeeze money out of an investment I already made. Had I been going for payoff, there are cheaper battery/inverter options out there with a sub-5y payoff.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#96

Post by __d »

arpinum wrote: post #60
__d wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a daily event now in Australia. Very low prices during the middle of the day, and higher in the morning and evening. Anyone with a battery or an EV they don’t need to drive far can play the market, usually with scripted sell/buy trigger points. There’s enough profit to make the payback period for a decent battery quite short.

Yes, I see energy-intensive industry moving away from extreme latitudes in the long run. Most of Europe is at an unfortunate latitude and has surprising levels of cloud cover.

Yes. Europe has far more wind than Australia, I imagine for that reason.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#97

Post by adrianN »

cubefox wrote: post #94
__d wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They would find it hard to compete with negative prices too.

Not at all. The prices aren't negative during the night or on overcast days.

Every hour you don't run your nuclear power plant at full capacity you lose money. Nuclear power is mostly capex. You need to maximize utilization if you want to be profitable.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#98

Post by HPsquared »

leonidasrup wrote: post #74
Ekaros wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is the trade off for renewables. Power is very expensive when needed and very cheap when not.

Electric power is very expensive when demand is greater than supply, very cheap when supply is greater than demand.

One property of electric power grids is that supply exactly equals demand.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#99

Post by cubefox »

adrianN wrote: post #97
cubefox wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not at all. The prices aren't negative during the night or on overcast days.

Every hour you don't run your nuclear power plant at full capacity you lose money. Nuclear power is mostly capex. You need to maximize utilization if you want to be profitable.

It's far worse not to have sufficient electricity during the night or on overcast days. You can just increase nuclear electricity prices during that time to make up for the lost revenue from sunny days.

Re: Germany Power Prices Turn Deeply Negative on Renewables Surge

#100

Post by adrianN »

cubefox wrote: post #99
adrianN wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every hour you don't run your nuclear power plant at full capacity you lose money. Nuclear power is mostly capex. You need to maximize utilization if you want to be profitable.

It's far worse not to have sufficient electricity during the night or on overcast days. You can just increase nuclear electricity prices during that time to make up for the lost revenue from sunny days.

Or you can burn some hydrogen or synthetic methane and get your energy for less money.
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