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The case for zero-error horizons in trustworthy LLMs

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Re: The case for zero-error horizons in trustworthy LLMs

#91
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Respectfully, toddlers cannot output useable code or have otherwise memorised results to an immense number of maths equations. What this points at is the abstraction/emergence crux of it all. Why does an otherwise very capable LLM such as the GPT-5 series, despite having been trained on vastly more examples of frontend code of all shapes, sizes and quality levels, struggle to abstract all that training data to the po…

> What this points at is the abstraction/emergence crux of it all. Why does This paper has nothing to do with any questions starting with "why". It provides a metric for quantifying error on specific tasks. > If LLMs, as they are now, were comparable with human learning I think I missed the part where they need to be. > struggle to abstract all that training data to the point where outputting any frontend that deviat…

Just saw the edit.

> When not given any reason to produce something else, humans also generate the same thing over and over. That's a problem of missing constraints, not of missing ability.

Ignoring the comparison with humans, yes, LLMs don't output something unless prompted specifically, of course. My point with GPT-5 was that, no matter how you prompt, you cannot get salvageable frontend code from this line of models.

OpenAI themselves tried and failed appallingly [0]. Call it "constraints", call it "reason", call it "prompting", you cannot get frontend code that deviates significantly from their card laden training data. Despite GPT-5 having been trained with more high quality frontend code examples than any human could ever read in a lifetime, that one template is over presented, because the model never generalised anything akin to an understanding of UI principles or what code yields a specific design.

These are solvable problems, mind you, but not because a model at some stage gains anything that one could call an abstract understanding of these concepts. Instead, by providing better training data or being clever in how you provide existing training data.

Gemini 3 and Claude 4 class models have a more varied training set, specifically of frontend templates yielding better results though if you do any extended testing you will see these repeat constantly because again, these models never abstract from that template collection [1].

Moonshot meanwhile with K2.5 did a major leap by tying their frontend code tightly to visual input, leveraging the added vision encoder [2]. They are likely not the only ones doing that, but the first that clearly stated it reading the system cards. Even there, the gains are limited to a selection of very specific templates.

In either case, more specific data, not abstractions by these models yield improvements.

> Twitter Bootstrap [...] entirely by us meatsacks (not me personally). Where there's no goal for different output there's no reason to produce different output, and LLMs don't have their own goals because they don't have any mechanisms for desire (we hope).

What? So because some devs relied on Bootstrap that means, what exactly? That no one asked/told them to leverage a different solution, be more creative, what?

Again ignoring the comparison to humans which just is not appropriate for this tech, we can and do prompt models for specific frontend output. We are, if you must, providing the goal. The model however cannot accomplish said goal, even OpenAI cannot get GPT-5s lineage to deviate from their one template.

If we must stick with the human comparison and if we must further limit it to Bootstrap, GPT-5 despite being specifically prompted to never use the Carousel in Bootstrap, can not output any website without including a Carousel, because the template it was trained on included one. Any human developer asked to do so would just not include a Carousel, because their abilities are abstracted beyond the one Bootstrap template they first learned with. But if we truly wanted to make this fair, it'd actually have to be a human who was trained on thousands of Bootstrap example pages, but just one template really well and never connected anything between that one and the others. Which isn't very human, but then again, that's why this comparison is not really a solid one.

[0] Subjectively not one good result, objectively even their team of experts could not get their own model to seize the telltale signs of GPT frontend slop that originated from a template they have been training with since Horizon: https://developers.openai.com/blog/designing-delightful-fron...

[1] https://ui-design-bench.vercel.app

[2] https://www.kimi.com/blog/kimi-k2-5

Re: The case for zero-error horizons in trustworthy LLMs

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like it’s maybe also a tool steering problem. These models should be reaching for tools to help solve factual problems. LLM should stick to prose.

I think this is still useful research that calls into question how “smart” these models are. If the model needs a separate tool to solve a problem, has the model really solved the problem, or just outsourced it to a harness that it’s been trained - via reinforcement learning - to call upon?

Does it matter if the LLM can solve the problem or if it knows to use a resource?

There’s plenty of math that I couldn’t even begin to solve without a calculator or other tool. Doesn’t mean I’m not solving math problems.

In woodworking, the advice is to let the tool do the work. Does someone using a power saw have less claim to having built something than a handsaw user? Does a CNC user not count as a woodworker because the machine is doing the part that would be hard or impossible for a human?

Re: The case for zero-error horizons in trustworthy LLMs

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

heh, interesting that. I just tried it twice more with ChatGPT "Instant" (disabling "Auto-switch to Thinking") and it got it wrong both times. Does yours get it right without thinking or tool calls? If so, maybe it does like you better than me.

OK, I didn't think to disable switch to thinking (didn't know this was a mode). When I did that then it did get it wrong -- oddly it took about the same amount of time, so thinking mode wasn't taking longer, but it was more accurate.

Right, though I didn't explicitly disable thinking for my first attempt either. I'd guess my prompt was less detailed than yours and so ChatGPT (in "Auto" mode) decided to allocate thinking tokens for your questions but not mine.

Re: The case for zero-error horizons in trustworthy LLMs

#95

LLMs seem to me closer to Kahneman's System 1 than to System 2. When understood in this way, it is obvious why LLMs are bad at counting r's in "strawberries". But it also makes ZEH feel like it couldn't possibly be a useful metric, because it's a System 2 evaluation applied to a System 1 system.

FYI, the LLM letter-counting problem has nothing to do with counting per se, and is instead entirely down to LLMs not getting to see your raw UTF-8 byte stream, but rather having a tokenizer intermediating between you and it, chunking your UTF-8 bytes into arbitrary, entirely-opaque-to-the-LLM token groupings.

Try it for yourself — under the most popular tokenizer vocabulary (https://tiktokenizer.vercel.app/?model=cl100k_base), "strawberry" becomes [str][aw][berry]. Or, from the model's perspective, [496, 675, 15717]. The model doesn't know anything about how those numbers correspond to letters than you do! It never gets sat down and told "[15717] [b][e][r][r][y]", with single-byte tokens on the right. (In fact, these single-byte tokens appear in the training data extremely rarely, and so the model doesn't often learn to do anything with them.)

Note that LLMs can predictably count the number of r's in "s t r a w b e r r y", because becomes [Count][ the][ number][ of][ r]['s][ in][ "][s][ t][ r][ a][ w][ b][ e][ r][ r][ y]["]. And that's just a matching problem — [ r] tokens for [ r] tokens, no token-correspondence-mapping needed.

Re: The case for zero-error horizons in trustworthy LLMs

#97
post #95

LLMs seem to me closer to Kahneman's System 1 than to System 2. When understood in this way, it is obvious why LLMs are bad at counting r's in "strawberries". But it also makes ZEH feel like it couldn't possibly be a useful metric, because it's a System 2 evaluation applied to a System 1 system.

FYI, the LLM letter-counting problem has nothing to do with counting per se, and is instead entirely down to LLMs not getting to see your raw UTF-8 byte stream, but rather having a tokenizer intermediating between you and it, chunking your UTF-8 bytes into arbitrary, entirely-opaque-to-the-LLM token groupings. Try it for yourself — under the most popular tokenizer vocabulary ( https://tiktokenizer.vercel.app/?model=c…

>entirely-opaque-to-the-LLM token groupings

This is clearly not the case, any modern (non-reasoning) model easily decomposes words into individual token-characters (try separating them with e.g. Braille spaces...) and does arbitrary tokenization variants if forced with a sampler. It's way deeper than tokenization, and models struggle exactly with counting items in a list, exact ordering, retrieving scattered data, etc. LLM context works a lot more like associative memory than a sequence that can be iterated over. There are also fundamental biases and specific model quirks that lead to this.

Re: The case for zero-error horizons in trustworthy LLMs

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> many animals can distinguish independently small numbers, like 3 or 5 This is called subitizing. It's distinct from counting. We can see the difference in humans with Simultanagnosia, who are unable to count beyond the subitizing range. Subitizing is categorizing the scale of a small gestalt group. The only thing I've ever seen where an animal appeared to demonstrate counting (up to 3) without training was in rhesu…

Even parrots can count to 6 and more, I would be surprised if primates couldn't.

At least one has maybe been shown to be able to do that with 30 years of focused training, but none have been shown to be able without training. Wild parrots have only demonstrated subitizing and size discrimination, not counting.

The overeager do quite often confuse subitizing and size discrimination for counting, though. That's its own problem.

Re: The case for zero-error horizons in trustworthy LLMs

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. It's only surprising to people who still think they're going to build God out of LLMs.

It was surprising to me and when I reviewed the paper, I found serious flaws that calls the fundamental claims into question - they didn't use any reasoning tokens. Any LLM or human will fail at a task like this if not allowed to think.

Calling "reasoning tokens" "thinking" is a complete confusion of concepts on your part.
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