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America Is Now a Rogue Superpower

theatlantic.com

91–100 of 128 posts

Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has played much much better chess so it's not surprise they're benefiting. However, I don't really see how China will benefit from Iran being in ruins. Can you elaborate on how China benefits ? From what I can tell, The USA is either going for force a regime change or it's going to ruin Iran. Where will China get oil from then? You might say Russia but that's a precarious situation for them to be in.

I'll give you a small scale example for that. A year ago, when discussing AI adoption in an European business, the idea of looking at Chinese providers or Mistral was not seriously considered. The obvious answer was Microsoft/Azure and OpenAI. That has changed nowadays. As a direct consequence of the behavior of the American government towards its "allies". You can extrapolate from that. This isn't about short term o…

I don't think it has just changed to "China is ok" though, it seems to be more like, Europe has decided to build more of it's own infrastructure and military capability.

I think the over-reliance mistake won't be made again for a long time.

I don't disagree that it's beneficial for China, likely in the short term, but I also don't think a lot of countries are just happy to go full Communist party either.

Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower

#93
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is this building where guys wearing masks wheel you into a room behind locked doors at dawn and then use drugs to knock you out. They then take sharp knives and cut you open and rummage around your insides, sometimes taking organs out. Blood goes everywhere. The footage is gory. When they're done with you it may takes you weeks to recover. The rest of just call his "surgery at a hospital". My point is that you'…

In my opinion a 'civil servant' sees their job as serving the American people to the best of their ability even if they don't agree with the outcomes of the latest election. A member of the 'deep state'; however, is ideologically driven. If their favorite party is in power, they use their job to push their ideology to its limits. If the opposition party won the election; then they view their role as a means to 'resis…

> A member of the 'deep state'; however, is ideologically driven

What you're describing is a federal employee. The kind that takes a massive pay cut, and loses out on paycheck stability (due to government shutdowns), because they at least start out earnestly attempting to improve the system.

How they define "improving the system" varies by ideology, but career civil servants, in wanting to follow their definition of improving the system, are ideologically driven.

What you're describing is still just "A collection of civil servants that aren't disillusioned and dead inside"

Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Constitution does not define a civil service system . You seem to interpret that as saying that any system is unconstitutional until the Constitution is amended to define one. That is... let's just call it "very much a minority interpretation". We are not going to either amend the Constitution nor abolish the civil service just because some pseudonymous online account says we should.

The Constitution defines just three branches of power, if the "civil service system" has a power and is not one of the branches then it unconstitutional by common sense and elementary logic. And this "civil servant system" evidentially has power and is not a part of either of the three branches (which are all enumerated in the Constitution) ergo it's an unconstitutional junta. >We are not going to either amend the Co…

The constitution says the president must "take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed". That means hiring people to enforce the laws, that's the civil servant system.

Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower

#95
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US cannot ruin Iran short of the widespread use of nuclear weapons. Air power has never resulted in regime change. Never . It takes boots on the ground and one just needs to look at a map. Iran is surrounded on 3 sides by mountains and the Gulf on the fourth. Iran's drones and ballistic missiles are incredibly cheap, well-defended and impossible to meaningfully disrupt. The interceptors used to stop them are runn…

I read these comments and I almost wonder if it's just parroting of state sponsored stories. I'm personally not in support of what's going on in the middle east at all, but it does sounds like a fear campaign or something. As if Iran is some sort of unconquerable bastion that is untouchable. In my honest opinion, no one except fairly senior intelligence people would really know what's going on. They have no air force…

The history since 1945 has been the resounding and repeated success of asymmetric warfare. Specifically, the US has not actually won a war since 1945 despite starting or providing material support to many. We've been unable to topple Cuba, a tiny island 90 miles off our coast despite repeatedly trying to 60+ years.

We spent 20 years and $8 trillion on the War on Terror. The Taliban was in charge of Afghanistan before we started. they're in charge now.

Iran is a country of 93 million people in a country 5 times as large as Texas whose entire economy is built to withstand economic pressure who view the US as the Great Satan and who can blame them given all we've done to them since 1953. However unpopular the current regime may be, the US is more unpopular.

The US did not consult any allies (other than Israel, of course) so most of the world is taking a "you broke it, you bought it" stance. Iran is saying if your country doesn't provide material support to the US invasion, your ships can go through, which will further undermine support.

It's interesting that Russian and American militaries are kind of victims to corruption but in different ways.

In Russia, generals basically stole money for tanks they never got built and nobody really found that out until Ukraine. Russia is sort of a paper tiger now.

In the US, the leeches we have are defense contractors who are sucking more than half a trillion dollars a year in weapon systems from the government coffers. We build really expensive things that... don't really work that well. We have anti-missile systems that are a coin toss at working against cheap Iranian missiles, which we're also running out of interceptors for and replacing them will take years. We have no answer for the drone threat that is incrdibly cheap, easy to scale production and almost impossible to disrupt the production and launch of because the Iranians have buried bases and facilities deep underground for obvious reasons.

In Iraq we turned drones into mobilee assassination vehicles (ie Reaper drones with Hellfire missiles) but those drones are $10M+. The "enemy" turned around and basically bought off the shelf commercial drones and turne them into suicide drones for $10-30k each and can produce hundreds if not a thousand or more per month.

You will not find any military planner or general that isn't a snivelling toad to the administration that thought this was a good idea or that there was any path to victory, whatever "victory" means here, which we still don't know.

So my answer to you is... just look at a map. How do we invade? Where? To what end? What happens when they start raining done drones on us that we can't defend against sufficiently? We can't occupy a country this large even if we can take it over. Conservatively we'd need 1-2 million troops for that.

Put it this way: Ukraine is a fifth the size of Iran and has half the population and there was no way Russia, who has access to a much larger army thanks to a draft, could occupy and control Ukraine long term even if they could topple the regime.

To occupy Iran we'd need to accept casualties in the tens of thousands. We haven't seen casualties like that since Vietnam, possibly WW2. This is also a war that hasn't gotten Congressional approval yet. Why do you think that is? I know. Because that resolution might fail then what. This war was historically unpopular for a war before it started. How popular will it be when we have $8 gas and the bodies start rolling home? What do you think will happen in the midterms?

Despite the buffoonery and sheer incompetence of this administration as well as the pack of moronic sycophants around the president, I'm actually surprised it went this far.

Take even more moderate objectives like Kharg Island. Well we have to go through the Strait for get there. We can air drop enough troops to take it but then what? How do we supply it? Waht if Iran starts raining drones down on it? It's only 8 square miles. There's nowhere to hide there. And then what? Iran just blocks ships departing from a US-controlled Kharg and removes more oil from the global market.

Their Navy doesn't matter. Their Air Force doesn't matter. You can if necessary lay mines with fishing boats. But you don't even need to lay mines. You simply have to say you will and insurance premiums go 10x and ship owners refuse to travers the Strait.

The US may still be the 800 pound gorilla in the room but absolutely everybody who isn't Israel hates us thanks to this war as well as the tariffs fiasco. I haven't seen a single realistic achievable and worthwhile military scenario out of this from anyone who knows anything about military planning and logistics. I really do think Trump thought he could do Venezuela 2.0.

Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given what happened to Hong Kong, that is not an option that Taiwan is going to seriously consider - not for the next 50 years or so.

Seriously,Taiwan have to consider

It's not possible in Taiwan's current political/social climate. I'm not so confident to say 50 years, but 20+ feels conservative.

Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower

#97
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US cannot ruin Iran short of the widespread use of nuclear weapons. Air power has never resulted in regime change. Never . It takes boots on the ground and one just needs to look at a map. Iran is surrounded on 3 sides by mountains and the Gulf on the fourth. Iran's drones and ballistic missiles are incredibly cheap, well-defended and impossible to meaningfully disrupt. The interceptors used to stop them are runn…

I read these comments and I almost wonder if it's just parroting of state sponsored stories. I'm personally not in support of what's going on in the middle east at all, but it does sounds like a fear campaign or something. As if Iran is some sort of unconquerable bastion that is untouchable. In my honest opinion, no one except fairly senior intelligence people would really know what's going on. They have no air force…

> I read these comments and I almost wonder if it's just parroting of state sponsored stories.

A good way to get a feeling for that is usually to read back in a posters comment history.

Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll give you a small scale example for that. A year ago, when discussing AI adoption in an European business, the idea of looking at Chinese providers or Mistral was not seriously considered. The obvious answer was Microsoft/Azure and OpenAI. That has changed nowadays. As a direct consequence of the behavior of the American government towards its "allies". You can extrapolate from that. This isn't about short term o…

I don't think it has just changed to "China is ok" though, it seems to be more like, Europe has decided to build more of it's own infrastructure and military capability. I think the over-reliance mistake won't be made again for a long time. I don't disagree that it's beneficial for China, likely in the short term, but I also don't think a lot of countries are just happy to go full Communist party either.

I'm curious why countries do business with Communist will let them go full Communist party

Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then what? The spoils system? Rampant incompetence? And, we have to get rid of it because it's not in the Constitution? You know what else isn't in the Constitution? DHS. The IRS. ICE. An enormous number of other agencies. The Constitution gives very little guidance on the Executive Branch, other than the President and Vice President. That does not mean that hiring people in federal agencies is unconstitutional!…

Then back to the system defined in the Constitution, it gives enough guidance. If you think the President is not enough for the Executive - amend the Constitution, used to be enough for ~200 years though.

Why didn't you comment on the other agencies mentioned? A simple yes or no would be enough.

Re: America Is Now a Rogue Superpower

#100

The single most interesting thing that will come out of the Iran war, is it's giving the go-ahead signal for China. I don't mean morally specifically, I mean practically: China is plainly seeing the US can't sustain a long campaign what-so-ever. The US has burned through ~850 Tomahawks in weeks, 20-25% of its stock. Again an opponent that wasn't that hard to knock down in terms of air to ground / ground to air, and s…

China is not going to militarily take over Taiwan. The most likely outcome now is a "three state" China where it joins the fold voluntarily and becomes a puppet state of China. Given the way the world has gone, it's the only rational choice.

I am not sure why you are being downvoted. People here are acting like Taiwan is made of white-anglosaxon people; whereas if you were to visit, it’s way more Chinese and less Western than Hong Kong even after its degradation.

Most people in Taiwan want to be independent but given a choice between a Gaza scenario and soft-rule from the CCP, they’ll pick the latter.

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