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I think the main reason is that they were all too incompetent to realize what the effects of the war would be on the global financial system. The bets were probably just a happy opportunity for corruption. > The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt Look on the bright side, at least the malicious actors aren't able to competently implement their goals.
When do we cross the barrier from incompetent to nefarious?
If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.
The bet amounts are small relative to the political scandal that would follow top administration officials who have decision making power. If there is insider trading it's most likely low-level staffers or friends of officials who speak too freely. If a high ranking official wanted to make a lot of money on these moves in an untraceable way, there are numerous financial market opportunities. The amount they could mak…
Have you noticed any meaningful scandals back then?
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It's not really up to the US and Israel when this war of choice ends anymore. It's up to Iran. And Iran, justifiably, is going to demand their pound of flesh. That could require some combination of ending the (criminal) sanctions, de-militarizing the Gulf and reining in Israel. The problem is all of these things are politically untenable. This is the only reason why I think this war could continue long term because T…
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Why would it be in any state's interest to get to a situation where you would have mass revolt? Don't you think they'd want to prevent that if they could? No matter how evil they are?
Couldn't insiders just trade Brent Crude futures and do the same thing? There's more than enough liquidity in Brent that an insider can make great money.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futu...
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> Isn’t one of the points of betting markets is to incentivize this? No. It’s an unintended side effect that risks breaking trust in the system by (the majority of) players who don’t have insider knowledge.
Eh what? It’s literally the only reason for prediction markets to exist. Otherwise they are simple gambling and pointless. The only way you get more wisdom from “the crowd” is if it teases folks who hold non-public (or at least less public) information into the market to refine the odds towards what they should be. Without insider information the entire concept is dead on arrival. Yes randos are gonna gamble because…
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Right so how are you going to find it and who is going to prosecute the insider trading here? My point isn't that an unregulated prediction market (Polymarket non-US markets are non-CFTC certified) can obscure insider trading. My point is that Brent has enough liquidity that an insider can trade without moving markets. There's plenty of insiders that work on a contract basis and aren't required to disclose trades by…
Also, isn't insider trading the whole point of prediction markets? They were originally conceptualized as information aggregators.
What people are looking for is anti-corruption enforcement not market regulation. The problem isn’t that the admin is using advanced knowledge, all commodities trading involves that, it’s that the officials have an obligation to the public as part of their governmental service.
Of course this admin _also_ gutted the anti-corruption offices in the government along with the market regulators.
Isn’t one of the points of betting markets is to incentivize this? Now me, as someone who doesn’t have access to insider knowledge, can know that there’s a noticeably increased chance of what’s going to happen. I do think maybe there should be some sort of feature to prevent last minute bets that utilizes insider knowledge, and I do admit there are considerable negative externalities to this system but it’s not clear…
* you can place large bets on events you have influence on the outcome for and make large amounts of money
* you can place large bets on events and then threaten people who have influence with a big stick
* you can place large bets expecting to lose money in order to change the outcome or a related outcome expecting people to look at the odds and change their behavior
And probably lots of other ways.
It corrupts events and on a world stage with unethical government in vogue... it's not impossible for people to manipulate a war in order to make bets go their way.
Isn’t one of the points of betting markets is to incentivize this? Now me, as someone who doesn’t have access to insider knowledge, can know that there’s a noticeably increased chance of what’s going to happen. I do think maybe there should be some sort of feature to prevent last minute bets that utilizes insider knowledge, and I do admit there are considerable negative externalities to this system but it’s not clear…
That seems like a big one
If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Isn’t one of the points of betting markets is to incentivize this? No. It’s an unintended side effect that risks breaking trust in the system by (the majority of) players who don’t have insider knowledge.
Eh what? It’s literally the only reason for prediction markets to exist. Otherwise they are simple gambling and pointless. The only way you get more wisdom from “the crowd” is if it teases folks who hold non-public (or at least less public) information into the market to refine the odds towards what they should be. Without insider information the entire concept is dead on arrival. Yes randos are gonna gamble because…
Ignorance is strength.
Openly corrupt markets that feature insiders with secret knowledge taking money from gambling addicts and rubes is actually good cause the crowd is now wiser.