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I'm OK being left behind, thanks

shkspr.mobi

91–100 of 800 posts

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#91

I actually think the opposite approach might be the most optimal one, at least from a monetary perspective. That is, be on the cutting-edge of something, but be willing to bail out at the moment its future starts seeming questionable. Or even more specifically, maximize your foothold in it while minimizing your downside. Bitcoin is a good example: if you bought it 15 years ago and held it, you're probably quite wealt…

Yeah it looks reasonable when you only pick success stories for your examples.

If you sold the farm to get in early in the Metaverse, you're totally hosed now because that was a dead end. The idea of digital real estate was as terrible then as it is now.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#92
I love the Cryptocurrency analogy. The LLM hype monkeys are the same people that were screaming that NFTs/Digital Art was going to replace all the traditional art in gallaries in 10 years. They are literally the same people, and they are all addicted to money and hype. Ignore them..

Did handmade Swiss watch movements lose all demand when Asia started mass manufacturing watches? No. There is always going to be more demand for quality over slop. Its the same reason that handmade clothes are worth 100x more than clothes at a department store.

This is all by design too, these billionaires selling thinking machines are trying to make us all dependent on their fountain of tokens. Don't fall for it. Just like how maps apps made everyone reliant on Google/Apple for your ability to navigate around your own city, these billionaires want to do the same think with your ability to think, build, plan and even learn/read.

Don't fall for this scam, unlike other hype cycles like NFTs and Crypto this will actually damage more than just your bank account, it will fry your brain if you become over reliant on it.

Take a second and consider why these LLM tool companies design their products like slot machines. They put multipliers in there UIs (run this x3,x4,x5) times so that you inevitably treat the thing like a slot machine. And it is like a slot machine, you have no way to control the results its quite random, in the case of llms they just have a better payout percentage, at the cost of making your brain become dopamine and structurally dependent on their output. They convince people there is some occulted art in the formation of a prompt, like a gambler who thinks if they press buttons in a certain order they'll get better results or many other gambling superstitions.

If you're writing software please take a moment to breath, and ask yourself if its really that useful to have piles of code where you have little idea how things work, even if they do. Billionaires will sell you on the idea that this doesn't matter because the llm, that you conveniently have to pay them to use, will always be able to fix that bug.

Don't fall for the ruling classes trick, they want you reliant on this thing so they can tell you that your input isn't as valuable, and therefor your salary and skills are not as valuable. We have to stop this now.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#93
At some point you commit the time to learn what you need to. I like to think of the analogy to SEO. The veterans in the industry are not who they are because they were at the front of the line. It’s because they have the 15 years of experience under their belt.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#94
post #2

> I didn't use Git when it first came out. Once it was stable and jobs began demanding it, I picked it up. What jobs aren’t requiring usage of these tools by now?

Just last year I migrated to Git a major code base that was still stuck in SVN. It's not even a legacy project, just a laggard. For some colleagues, this was their first time using Git on the job.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#95
i’ve said this before, but the “left behind” narrative is FUD nonsense. as an llm avoider i’ve never felt further _ahead_ than now. all of my peers who never bothered to learn their tools (which gave tangible benefits) have opted into deskilling themselves further.

it’s readily apparent who has bought into the llm hype and who hasn’t

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#96
post #33

> If this tech is as amazing as you say it is, I'll be able to pick it up and become productive on a timescale of my choosing not yours. Broadly speaking, I think this is a wise assessment. There are opportunities for productivity gains right now, but it I don't think it's a knockout for anyone using the tech, and I think that onboarding might be challenging for some people in the tech's current state. It is safe to…

It also seems like skills with particular tech (prompt engineering, harnesses, mixture of experts set ups) doesn't always necessarily pay off when there's a sea change. Hard to predict what you'll want in a few years anyway, right?

In my experience (and this may be confirmation bias on my part), casting a wide net and trying out new tech, while you maintain depth in the area relevant at the time, makes you ready for what's coming, even when you don't know what that may be.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#97

There are real productivity gains by using these tools right now. Instead of doing 1x your normal work, you can do 5x while still maintaining quality. This is like an accountant sticking to pen and paper because calculators are big and clunky.

> Instead of doing 1x your normal work, you can do 5x while still maintaining quality.

That's a gross overestimate. 2x I would maybe believe.

Someone has to sign off your work and unless it's hard to write but easy to read, this is where the bottleneck currently lies.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#99
post #3

I agree with the sentiment of this article. Sadly, I'm still disagreeing while crypto kiddies are driving past me in lambo's. If its the future of money, yes we'll get there eventually, but like every technology shift, there's a lot of money to be made in the transition, not after. * * I sold all crypto a few years ago and I'm a happier person :D

> Sadly, I'm still disagreeing while crypto kiddies are driving past me in lambo's.

I know a few people who got wealthy by being early to crypto. None of them had the correct reasoning at the time: They thought BTC was going to become a common way to pay for things or that “the flippening” was going to see worldwide currency replaced with BTC. They thought they’d be kings in a new economy but instead they’re just moderately wealthy with a large tax bill they’re determined to dodge.

I know far more people who lost money on crypto, though. Some were even briefly crypto-rich but failed to sell before the crash or did things like double down on the altcoin bubble.

The second group had gone quiet about their crypto while the few people in the first group gloat and evangelize (because continued evangelization is necessary to keep their portfolios pumped). This creates an intense survivorship bias where it appears like all the crypto kiddies are wealthy, but a quiet mass of people who played with crypto are most definitely not.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#100

Feels like a false equivalency. It's just my experience, but I've completely ignored crypto and the metaverse, and I don't get the sense I'm missing out on much. In contrast, LLMs in their current state have (for me) dramatically reduced the distance between an idea and a working implementation, which has been legitimately transformative in my software dev life. Transformative for the better? Time will tell I suppose…

This depends very much on your line of work.

As a freelancer I do a bit of everything, and I’ve seen places where LLM breezes through and gets me what I want quickly, and times where using an LLM was a complete waste of time.

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