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Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike

bbc.com

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Re: Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike

#91

Post by dzhiurgis »

karmakurtisaani wrote: post #86
epsters wrote: post #80

Israeli Defense Minister said earlier today that “Significant surprises are expected today across all arenas that will escalate the war to a new level.” And now they have targeted the world's largest gas field (shared with Qatar). Iranians have said they would retaliate against oil fields and refineries in Israel and the Gulf. But since the majority of US air defenses have been diverted in defense of Israel it looks…

We can't even get Israel out of the Eurovision song contest. Having them face any real consequences is still far away.

[flagged]

Re: Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike

#92

Post by bluGill »

pickleglitch wrote: post #75
fpoling wrote: post #33

With this prices it is cheaper to make fuel from coal, the break even price was about 80-90 USD/barrel. And if this continues for months this will pushes wind and solar and electrical cars making natural gas and oil much less relevant. Maybe that was the plan.

> And if this continues for months this will pushes wind and solar and electrical cars making natural gas and oil much less relevant. Maybe that was the plan. This is one of the most batshit insane things I've ever read. What on Earth would make you think this?

I doubt it was anyone's plan. However it is likely the effect - you can build more wind and solar anywhere. Asia is finding it hard to get oil which means anyplace in Asia that gets power from wind/solar (or coal - but not where the investments will go although there are a number of things like that in play) instead of oil/gas will have no problems. People unable to get gas who see EVs still working will want one - those with money will buy them. People who see EVs stranded too (because the local power is oil/gas) will still be mad - but they will ask what can change, and wind/solar are right there are cheap answers and so they will get it.

Of course the open question is how long will this last? If this situation ends this week (seems unlikely but...) people will go back to what they did before and forget about this until the next oil crisis - just like every other one. However if this drags on a few years expect major changes in energy mix as people find other answers. Either way, wind/solar are cheap and so utilities around the world are looking to get some installed because it is generally a great investment.

Re: Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike

#93

Post by jart »

trimbo wrote: post #47
ck2 wrote: post #11

btw fertilizer prices are now 40% higher this is going to destroy world economy on every angle fuel and now food it's like the Israeli's figured out the answer to their problem was to make it everyone's problem how about we stop giving them offensive weapons, defensive only or we'll be going through this every decade

> this is going to destroy world economy on every angle Oil prices were around $100 for a lot of the early 2010s. It's been three weeks. Calm down.

Even at $100 oil is the cheapest it's ever been historically. OPEC nations don't measure inflation in terms of U.S. CPI. They use gold as their benchmark. In 1969 a barrel of oil was worth $400 in today's money. What's incredible is even with the recent price rally, you can still buy oil at $71/barrel if you're willing to wait a few years to get your oil, due to the extreme backwardation of oil futures. That's an 82% discount over the historical norm. Also in real terms oil was worth about $500/barrel in the 2000s.

Re: Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike

#94

Post by dzhiurgis »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #77
pickleglitch wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And if this continues for months this will pushes wind and solar and electrical cars making natural gas and oil much less relevant. Maybe that was the plan. This is one of the most batshit insane things I've ever read. What on Earth would make you think this?

"Trump started the war in Iran to make green energy and EVs more desirable" is an actual conspiracy theory that is going around, although, ya, definitely an unintended consequence.

High oil prices does increase demand for petrodollar, but EV adoption decreases. But I don't think revenue from petrodollar really matters much when you spend nearly $1b per day on missiles.

I think real irony is that Iran keeps shipping oil to China and India. At which point US will start nabbing these tankers?

Re: Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike

#95

Post by epsters »

karmakurtisaani wrote: post #86
epsters wrote: post #80

Israeli Defense Minister said earlier today that “Significant surprises are expected today across all arenas that will escalate the war to a new level.” And now they have targeted the world's largest gas field (shared with Qatar). Iranians have said they would retaliate against oil fields and refineries in Israel and the Gulf. But since the majority of US air defenses have been diverted in defense of Israel it looks…

We can't even get Israel out of the Eurovision song contest. Having them face any real consequences is still far away.

A part of the problem is that the complicit media and politicians diverts the public's attention and energies away from relevant things like weapons-transfers, monetary flows, technology transfers, intelligence-sharing, foreign lobbying, legal and media cover for child-sex-trafficking and honeypot operations and onto minimally impactful elements like song and dance competitions.

Re: Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike

#96

Post by epistasis »

spankalee wrote: post #17
epistasis wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great plan for whom? Trump is headed towards Nixon levels of popularity and Nixon methods of ejection with this sort of stuff. The war is hugely unpopular, Trump is less popular, and if gasoline prices stay high and we get involved in a ground war there may be a popular revolution even before Democrats get elected and are able to impeach. Deals done in Yuan will still get through Hormuz. EU could switch currencies fo…

Popularity doesn't matter. The only thing that will remove Trump from office is Jan 20th 2029.

Popularity is the core of everything in a democracy. The reason Republicans are terrified of Trump and fall in lockstep is that Trump can get rid of them via primaries, and that requires Trump's popularity with a small but rabid MAGA base. But Republicans in 2028 will have to survive an election without Trump bringing that base to the ballot.

If Trump's popularity falls to Nixon levels, and the MAGA coalition continues to fracture at the current rate it's falling apart, within a year or tow, there could very well be 60 votes in the senate that go against Trump.

Re: Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike

#97

Post by bluGill »

SauntSolaire wrote: post #67
reillyse wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are failing to understand how (some) people think in the US. Expensive oil for some means that we should drill more oil wells. There is money sitting under the ground and we stick a pipe down and get it - AMAZING. That is how people think about high oil prices. If oil was to go to zero people would stop pumping it and burning it (for that to happen the alternatives have to be cheaper/better). That is what…

The demand for oil will likely never truly go to zero; too many products (outside of energy generation) rely on their byproducts. As for the bigger picture — yes, higher prices for oil might spur extraction in regions outside of the middle east, but that's a local only viewpoint. Globally, higher oil prices reduce consumption and make green alternatives more attractive on net.

I'm not convinced. As those other things become less byproduct and more the product that oil is pumped for the costs change. Oil is cheap today in part because of volume. However as volumes go down a lot of the infrastructure doesn't make sense to run at all. We will need to build new smaller refineries to handle the smaller world demand - when oil companies look to do that they are going to ask for who will sign a long term contract (even a small refinery is expensive) and a lot of users of oil are going to realize that alternatives to oil are perhaps more expensive, but they don't involve the same long term contracts. Poorly managed companies are the ones who won't sign the contract and when they discover they can't get oil anymore they will be forced to look for an alternative, and that will drive investment in the alternative. (we already know how to make plastics from plants - it is just more expensive - but someone forced to use plant based plastics will be sure to market their green features)

Re: Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike

#98

Post by fifilura »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #91
karmakurtisaani wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even get Israel out of the Eurovision song contest. Having them face any real consequences is still far away.

[flagged]

To me it seems legitimate to criticize ant government. Does not have to have anything to do with religion.

Re: Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike

#100

Post by bluGill »

josefritzishere wrote: post #88
josefritzishere wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a valid question, and the answer is unfortunately no. There's a lot to unpack there but basically the president is acting unilaterally and in a manner which advance the interests of foreign nations.

Minus 2? If anyone has an explanation as to how war with Iran is to the benefit if the U.S. I'd genuinely like to hear it.

War? Time will tell, but I'm not hopeful. I have no clue what Trump could have done instead that would work out, but war isn't looking like a good answer (no surprise to me - though I didn't expect it to get this bad so fast)

Iran has been funding a lot of the "attack Israel" groups in the area. When your income depends on hating Israel it is hard to see a more moderate view. In turn this gives the extremists in Israel a better line of why elect them over someone more moderate. (Lets me clear I'm not trying to clear Israel of their crimes here, only suggesting that Iran bares some blame for those crimes).

The above, but applied to other countries and not as extreem. Iran is funding many anti-democracy groups in the region.

Iran has a lot of smart, well educated people - who can't get enough water to drink. If Iran had a better government those people could develop things of use to improve the world, but instead many are stuck as poor despite having the ability to not be.

Changing Iran would not solve all the problems, but it would ease a large share and maybe leave room for a better world. The only question is how to do this - world history doesn't have a good record for changing evil governments.

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