We didn't recover from the 2008 crash properly because we didn't introduce consequences for those who created it.
Consequences would be nice, but actually forbidding it for the future would be enough. Obama promised to do it, but didn't, and everybody kind of forgot and moved on.
> Obama promised to do it
Do you know how the three branches of government work and who writes the laws?
The legislative produced Frank-Dodd...which Trump and Republicans later scaled back...
Private credit is cracking and lending standards are tightening behind the scenes. If you’re not building cash reserves right now you’re going to wish you had. The distressed opportunities ahead go to whoever kept dry powder while everyone else was chasing growth. If your business is light on free cash flow (ie everyone in AI at the moment) buckle up as there are storm clouds ahead. If you’re running a business that…
> If you’re running a business that relies on external cash (VCs, loans/bonds, etc) to keep things going things will get very ugly. Honestly thrilled to hear it. The AI bubble needs to burst so we can find out what's actually useful, start requiring real business models again, and get rid of all the noise and waste.
Most business is noise and waste. I love that no one gets that.
It’s like hoping for the apocalypse thinking you’re of course the hardcore survivalist. When in reality you’ll get eaten first.
Yeah, I'm going down a bit of a rabbit hole this morning. Turns out Wells Fargo's $59.7bn of private-credit lending is equal to 44% of its CE Tier 1 capital [1]. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank got back to being Deutsche Bank while I was not looking [2].
What the hell ?! Nearly 10% ?! How can it be?! World wide, it seems to be around 4% since 2004. Page 22 (French but it's just numbers, you can read it). https://www.eib.org/files/publications/thematic/gems_default... >
It is easy to keep your head above water level for surprisingly long times. Just look how some people in retail manage to rack up credit card and other type of debt. And it is especially so when money given is not their own, but instead they get to take cut. Which these funds can do. They might even just take promises that you will pay in future and even allow adding the interest on top of loan amount. Numbers look g…
Yea the market will correct any time now from 2009.
Things will stay the way they are for as long as people want them to. The economy and money is fundamentally made up. It’s so funny when these types come out and start talking about made up fundamentals as if they are physics.
Misleading title* > The default rate among U.S. corporate borrowers of private credit rose to a record 9.2% in 2025 Emphasis added. Headline makes it sound like retail credit, not corporate specifically. *Edit: Not misleading, just an unfamiliar term/usage from my perspective. I'm not a finance guy so didn't know the difference and assumed others wouldn't either. Mea culpa .
Has the title been changed already? It currently says 'private credit', I don't see how that misleadingly sounds like 'retail credit'?
Misleading title* > The default rate among U.S. corporate borrowers of private credit rose to a record 9.2% in 2025 Emphasis added. Headline makes it sound like retail credit, not corporate specifically. *Edit: Not misleading, just an unfamiliar term/usage from my perspective. I'm not a finance guy so didn't know the difference and assumed others wouldn't either. Mea culpa .
TBH "private credit" (meaning exactly what this article is talking about) is such a big thing in the finance industry that probably most finance industry people can't even fathom that the title is misleading to non-finance-industry people. I'm not saying they are right. But it's like if you posted an article called "Python Is Eating the World" on a non-tech side and people got mad because they thought the article was…
Ha, yes I didn't even consider it meant anything other than corporate private credit. Otherwise we'd be talking about presumably mortgages or "consumer debt". Right?
Yeah, I'm going down a bit of a rabbit hole this morning. Turns out Wells Fargo's $59.7bn of private-credit lending is equal to 44% of its CE Tier 1 capital [1]. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank got back to being Deutsche Bank while I was not looking [2]. [1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72971/00000729712500... [2] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/deutsche-bank-highl...
Deutsche gonna Deutsche.
Recruitment tables should just have a banner that reads 'we've already spent your bonus on legal fees, here's some chocolate'
Reason this number caught my eye: last year the Fed's stress tests found "loss rates from [non-bank financial institution] exposures (i.e., the percentage of loans that are uncollectible) were estimated at 7%, under a severe recession in scenario one" [1].
That's the scenario in which unemployment goes to 10%, home prices crash by 33%, the stock market halves and Treasuries trade at zero percent yield [2].
Misleading title* > The default rate among U.S. corporate borrowers of private credit rose to a record 9.2% in 2025 Emphasis added. Headline makes it sound like retail credit, not corporate specifically. *Edit: Not misleading, just an unfamiliar term/usage from my perspective. I'm not a finance guy so didn't know the difference and assumed others wouldn't either. Mea culpa .
TBH "private credit" (meaning exactly what this article is talking about) is such a big thing in the finance industry that probably most finance industry people can't even fathom that the title is misleading to non-finance-industry people. I'm not saying they are right. But it's like if you posted an article called "Python Is Eating the World" on a non-tech side and people got mad because they thought the article was…
It's some sort of Gell-Mann-Amnesia-like effect. I am accustomed to seeing thoughtful, informed discussion about technical topics on HN, so then it's jarring when something like this hits the front page and nobody seems to have any idea what they're talking about.