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Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat

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Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat

#91

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

bdangubic wrote: post #36
rvz wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will look back on this AI bubble 10 years later and see that alongside with the private credit market, the funding of data centers via dubious methods (circular financing, billions of dollars of loans / debt) on top of mass layoffs for the sake of so-called "AGI" to cover up the massive losses will cause a market crash beyond the tech industry. It just takes a single surprise to shock the market into chaos. My tim…

that is not much of a timeline and not much of a prediction. first you need to define what “crash” means in real terms. over the course of 4 years there will be market correction (especially after a bull run like we are on) so just saying “ai bubble, crash bla bla” is too lazy (although there are probably 10k+ such “predictions” on HN in the last say a year)

If you're looking for a short term prediction, I expect with, let's say 80% confidence, that the OpenAI IPO later this year will be quietly cancelled or face a WeWork moment and be loudly cancelled. Too much of what we think we know about the economics of modern AI is built on trust in people who aren't trustworthy, and the presumption that VCs would check the financials carefully when we know they strap on blinders once they see a revenue graph they like.

Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat

#93

Post by [deleted] »

samiv wrote: post #28
hedora wrote: post #12

And, with this, the economic contagion begins. Before this step, we had non-existent money loaned to build datacenters powered by non-existent power infrastructure to support future load that will never exist, with guaranteed revenue from companies that do not, and will never be able to pay. Previously, this was propped up with circular revenue and investment. Now it's going to be propped up by dismantling the US tec…

https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

[deleted]

Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat

#95

Post by dmix »

darth_avocado wrote: post #60
bearjaws wrote: post #48

The economy is going to go into a deep recession for years with the current economic environment. There will be nobody left to spend money, just increasing corporate and ultra high wealth spend. The rest will be left with food and water. We are destroying currently valuable jobs to allocate resources to electricity and silicon, concentrating wealth into 10 companies pockets. I don't know what comes after, but when yo…

> I don't know what comes after You start looking like South Africa, Brazil, India or other large economies with high concentration of wealth at the top.

All of them famous for top heavy bureaucracies meddling in industry and highly political byzantine rules for business, which is the current drumbeat the west is following.

Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat

#96

Post by monero-xmr »

jayd16 wrote: post #87
monero-xmr wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I heard this canard my entire life. It’s been said for centuries. If you want maximum employment pass a law that says all grass must be cut with scissors. Otherwise let productivity gains diffuse out - that’s the only way to increase true wealth

We can use technology to increase production and have a progressive tax. There is absolutely no reason we need to endure the extreme wealth divide.

If there is a need that people pay for, and it took 10 people, and technology comes and it can now be done by 1 person, that is a great thing. That’s not a bad thing at all. That’s exactly how the world progresses forwards. Everyone can get the need met, and at a cheaper cost, while freeing the other 9 people to do something else useful.

That is why we have the standard of living we have today

Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat

#97

Post by rvz »

k32k wrote: post #59
b112 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it is 2030, compute and software will vastly reduce requirements. Nvidia has so much cash for R&D. You can bet they now have immense optimization and improvements in the pipeline, but why would they release anything groundbreaking right now? There are no real competitors on their heels. As Intel did for decades, they will likely dole out improvements, only when necessary to remain ahead. By 2030, I expect 10x impr…

When I read this comment all I see is: LLM at the edge - or close to it - will become available. And whoever provides the best eco-system across digital lifestyle and business wins. Oh... Apple? lol. Well that'd be funny wouldn't it. Oh and dont forget Apple got rid of its reliance on Intel too. No reason why this can't happen again.

Could not believe how almost no-one saw this [0]. It was quite obvious that companies like Apple that are prioritizing local inference and potentially training have already won the race to $0.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40278371

Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat

#98

Post by _zoltan_ »

saos wrote: post #51

Just checked. They have 162,000 employees. So thats like 18% cut? I don't even know what that company does. I'm sure it's valuable for a reason, just never understood what they do. Edit: Google says they sell Database software. OK.

You don't know what Oracle does? What?

Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat

#99

Post by haxiomic »

monero-xmr wrote: post #62
bearjaws wrote: post #48

The economy is going to go into a deep recession for years with the current economic environment. There will be nobody left to spend money, just increasing corporate and ultra high wealth spend. The rest will be left with food and water. We are destroying currently valuable jobs to allocate resources to electricity and silicon, concentrating wealth into 10 companies pockets. I don't know what comes after, but when yo…

I heard this canard my entire life. It’s been said for centuries. If you want maximum employment pass a law that says all grass must be cut with scissors. Otherwise let productivity gains diffuse out - that’s the only way to increase true wealth

You need to explain, from a systems point of view _why_ the gains must diffuse out as you suggest. We have analogs we can compare to: massive wealth injections through a natural resource such as oil. Now what happens to that wealth is not obvious; for some countries it's a curse with radical inequality and pernicious and robust power structures, in fewer it has been bestowed to the heritage of the people (think Norway)

Now, the nature of AI is to change the balance of the labour trade. We have a notion of the “economic value of the average person” which is presently very high in the western world.

What happens when the median figure drops through 0 thanks to AI?

Do the remaining wealth owners share their wealth? How often does this occur in existing systems we can compare against?

The cost of primary resources to products also goes toward 0, perhaps this offsets the decreasing economic power of the average person. But what forces protect them if their bargaining power is lost?

Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat

#100

Post by convolvatron »

bequanna wrote: post #57
bearjaws wrote: post #48

The economy is going to go into a deep recession for years with the current economic environment. There will be nobody left to spend money, just increasing corporate and ultra high wealth spend. The rest will be left with food and water. We are destroying currently valuable jobs to allocate resources to electricity and silicon, concentrating wealth into 10 companies pockets. I don't know what comes after, but when yo…

> I don't know what comes after, but when you combine this with the Iran war it's going to be closer to economic depression. I follow your extrapolation in the first part, but this is where you lost me. Why is the Iran war guaranteed to have long-term net negative consequences? It seems far too early to predict the outcome with any kind of certainty.

turn it around. how is it possible that we interfere with a population, already inflamed with hatred because of past interference, and expect them to become moderate apolitical consumers. we kill more fathers, there will be more angry sons. that's been going on for more than 50 years. so no, it doesn't seem like there is any good outcome to be had by invading yet another country in the area and setting up another weak puppet government. what is the end game supposed to be here?
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