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I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

seangoedecke.com

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Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#91

Post by fatata123 »

nishit130 wrote: post #76
Tade0 wrote: post #69

> In 2026, I’m not sure the software engineering industry will survive another decade. Due to a text predictor ? I'm a daily user of the most recent Claude and while it's amazing at presenting other people's knowledge and reducing cognitive load by filling in the gaps, it's still just a machine that predicts text and that is a limitation which won't be overcome in this generation of such tools which, including resear…

Even if it's "just" a text predictor, it already outperforms the average person in certain domains, particularly software engineering. With all the recent advances in agentic systems like Claude Code and OpenCLAW, these text predictors can iterate and debug faster than the average human. Looking ahead at the next decade, I totally agree with Sean's view here. > I'm a daily user of the most recent Claude and while it'…

[dead]

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#92

Post by rubslopes »

minimaltom wrote: post #6

I feel exactly this. One thing I will add: while AI is getting really good at _doing_ the software building bits, I haven't yet seen it well integrated into the decision-making and political structure of organizations. Right now, it seems best in the hands of a high-agency individual empowered and able to make changes or 'ship' something, with them acting as the bridge. This of course, is not a technical challenge, b…

Well, I, for one, am guilty of developing AI agents for public project evaluation for current governments. It's coming.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#93

Post by schwartzworld »

Tade0 wrote: post #69

> In 2026, I’m not sure the software engineering industry will survive another decade. Due to a text predictor ? I'm a daily user of the most recent Claude and while it's amazing at presenting other people's knowledge and reducing cognitive load by filling in the gaps, it's still just a machine that predicts text and that is a limitation which won't be overcome in this generation of such tools which, including resear…

I agree that the software industry should expect a major upheaval. Developers won’t be replaced by LLMs, but it’s extremely likely that software as a product will become less valuable. You can already vibe code solutions you would’ve otherwise had to pay for. As tools come out that take advantage of this, it’s going to just get easier to spin the app you want up instead of paying for someone else’s. Which is pretty cool if you aren’t already a software developer.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#94

Post by drooby »

Tade0 wrote: post #89
aryehof wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it’s not just a “text predictor” is it? You can pretend that today we still only have ChatGPT 2 and that there is only pre-training on a large corpus of information, but that simply isn’t true?

> Well it’s not just a “text predictor” is it? It is, by definition, design and architecture a system that produces believable text. Here's a task to give it which pulls the veil right off: Ask it to add tests to a piece of code where code coverage is 100%, but it doesn't actually test functionality 100%. You'll start seeing nonsense sooner or later.

A leading theory in neuroscience is that human brains are fundamentally prediction machines too, constantly predicting sensory input, other people’s behavior, the next word in a sentence. “it’s just prediction” isn’t the gotcha you think it is. Prediction and attention turn out to be a surprisingly powerful foundation for intelligence.

The “just a text predictor” framing was fair a couple years ago but hasn’t kept up. Current models can genuinely identify untested edge cases even when coverage is 100%. You're definitely using the latest and greatest models?

The architecture started as next-token prediction, sure, and yes, human judgment is still required, but that judgment is being captured and integrated too. Every time millions of people use these models, their feedback feeds the next round of improvements.

Also, these models don’t need to replace your best engineers to be disruptive. They just need to outcompete the bottom of the bell curve. For a lot of junior-level work, we’re already getting close.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#95

Post by parpfish »

satvikpendem wrote: post #23
parpfish wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i've been advocating for developers to unionize for years, and there'd always be a big group saying "we don't need a union". AI-based job displacement will do wonders for raising class consciousness when it's too late. the best time to unionize is when you don't need a union.

Unions won't do anything for AI based job displacement though, because they don't need you, whether you're in a union or not. I see this going the same way as SAG for example, if AI video or film creation ever gets good enough where a single "director" can make an entire movie themselves with no actors. Unions and indeed any bargaining organization only have leverage when their people are needed, but what happens whe…

Well, it’s all probably a moot point now because devs have lost leverage. But the union contracts can help bring some order to the layoff process - which employees get laid off and severance for the others.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#96

Post by sltr »

The article expresses what a lot of us are feeling. I appreciated the read.

It conflates purpose with outcome. I don't accept the premise that software's purpose is to "automate away other jobs". That may be an outcome, but software's purpose is to enable completely new possibilities. Think bicycles of the mind.

The Apollo guidance computer didn't replace astronauts. It made the missions possible in the first place because no human can continually correct the spaceship trajectory every 250ms for 10 days on end.

We're not receiving some cosmic karma. We're more like cotton pickers after the cotton gin. Someone still has to plow and plant.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#97

Post by parpfish »

dmitrygr wrote: post #20
parpfish wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i've been advocating for developers to unionize for years, and there'd always be a big group saying "we don't need a union". AI-based job displacement will do wonders for raising class consciousness when it's too late. the best time to unionize is when you don't need a union.

And do what, what buggy whip unions did?

The dynamics are different when the demand for the product dies off and there’s no money to pay salaries vs worker productivity increasing and you need fewer workers.

Replacing workers will be used to increase profit margins rather than lower prices because there’s no competition to force prices down thanks to monopolistic consolidation

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#98

Post by wvxf »

georgemcbay wrote: post #58
wvxf wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know a lot of people working across portfolio management and tax accounting. Nobody I know of is using LLMs much and frankly their management has started to back-off pushing it more in the workplace. LLMs suit some jobs more than others. Its quite possible SWE's are the only profession massively affected - whether that means a evolution of the role or decline/death is another question.

> I know a lot of people working across portfolio management and tax accounting. Nobody I know of is using LLMs much and frankly their management has started to back-off pushing it more in the workplace. I could say the same thing for software engineers I know as recently as the middle of last year, things can change very quickly. Up until about December 2025 the fact that LLMs would replace us all (SWEs) was the pun…

Sorry man. This feels like you are hoping SWE alone isn’t affected.

Unfortunately the workflow of a software engineer has been to do things like asking questions on stack overflow to do their job - to use digital resources scattered across the web - to show examples of code freely across the web.

The workflow of an accountant, portfolio manager etc has nothing to do with accessing and using the web in the same manner. If you did their jobs you’d know this, but you don’t. Right?

Is it really a surprise? Nope. Thankfully writing code isn't enough. So your job is still somewhat safe for now.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#99

Post by dd8601fn »

ehnto wrote: post #21
suzzer99 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If software engineering goes extinct, a ton of other white-collar jobs will go with it, and we could be in an intractable depression.

I actually think AI has an unfair advantage with software that is making it seem far more capable that it is. Software is entirely text based, and producers have been putting their outputs and problem solving online for free for decades. I think applying AI to other white collar roles that also require problem solving but do not have as much training, will prove much more difficult. Even coding on proprietary dominat…

I get what you’re saying, but it’s not as though there are trillions of books and blog posts and stackexchange questions about excel and the handful of other things that most office workers do, too.

I honestly figured that’s why everyone is coming out with MS Office plugins for all the models, and MS itself is putting it in the tools.

So if most any company only needs one person to solve limited IT issues, prompt code production and deployment, generate the usual truckloads of excel spreadsheets, and do most of the finance and accounting… it starts to look pretty scary.

Then, what about the people making and maintaining all the facilities for these people we don’t need anymore? The world flipped its lid about commercial real estate when wfh became a thing. That was relatively small and temporary.

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#100

Post by wvxf »

imiric wrote: post #71

> I don’t think there are any genuinely new capabilities that AI agents would need in order to take my job. They’d just have to get better and more reliable at doing the things they can already do. The "just" here is minimizing what has been the crux of the problem for the past ~5 years. This technology has been capable of producing code all this time. The end result has been improving due to massive scaling efforts,…

Great post.
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