How about stopping politicians from engaging in stock markets first.
Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
91–100 of 141 posts
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The Secretary of War There's no such position. You may be referring to the Secretary of Defense.
It’s a secondary title [1]. [1]: https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2025-17508/p-3
POTUS also does not have the authority to rename the department, so not sure that this EO is meaningful.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#93Making insider/true expert information public more quickly in the form of influencing prices in a toy market is THE ENTIRE POINT of prediction markets. Read the original papers on them. http://li.mit.edu/Stuff/CNSE/Paper/Hanson90.pdf https://www.jstor.org/stable/3216893 https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/insiderbet.pdf
EXACTLY! We want insiders to participate in prediction markets and profit!
profit is the participation incentive
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#94Not just insider info. Folks in the government can make those things happen, making the payout for super rare events even higher and more catastrophic. It is obvious how prediction markets could be used to put blind hits out on people.
that’s kind of the point, everyone is just cooperating right now unless you are a head of state
it’s what the crypto anarchist paper Assassination Markets described in the 90s
freaked the FBI out at the time, I think that guy just got out of prison for “unrelated” reasons
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#95Making insider/true expert information public more quickly in the form of influencing prices in a toy market is THE ENTIRE POINT of prediction markets. Read the original papers on them. http://li.mit.edu/Stuff/CNSE/Paper/Hanson90.pdf https://www.jstor.org/stable/3216893 https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/insiderbet.pdf
It might've been the original purpose but in practice prediction markets have turned into a tool for gambling. It also creates weird incentives. If I want to pay a politician to do something, bribing them would generally be illegal. But what if I instead bet lots of money that they won't do it?
> a tool for gambling
they require liquidity from people that are not in the know for adequate price discovery and exit liquidity worthwhile for participation
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#96Can't individuals just avoid participating, knowing that there's always someone who knows more than you?
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#97Unfortunately, it's not just elected officials that are problematic for prediction markets. The Secretary of War, for instance is not an elected official nor are leaders of the armed forces and there is definitely a prediction market for war. Multiply this by every powerful appointee and every career bureaucrat and see what kind of picture that paints.
If we're not going to ban prediction markets, we could at least make it a requirement that all bets are public and associated with a real identity. That'd go a long way towards curbing the corruption of these things, while preserving (or even greatly enhancing) their "predictive power."
We already do this with Congress, and there’s still insider trading
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#98Unfortunately, it's not just elected officials that are problematic for prediction markets. The Secretary of War, for instance is not an elected official nor are leaders of the armed forces and there is definitely a prediction market for war. Multiply this by every powerful appointee and every career bureaucrat and see what kind of picture that paints.
If we're not going to ban prediction markets, we could at least make it a requirement that all bets are public and associated with a real identity. That'd go a long way towards curbing the corruption of these things, while preserving (or even greatly enhancing) their "predictive power."
There’s no one in the world that creating an alternate “real” identity would be easier for than someone who can influence or even determine military or covert actions. It’s probably even legal for them to do so.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#99Unfortunately, it's not just elected officials that are problematic for prediction markets. The Secretary of War, for instance is not an elected official nor are leaders of the armed forces and there is definitely a prediction market for war. Multiply this by every powerful appointee and every career bureaucrat and see what kind of picture that paints.
If we're not going to ban prediction markets, we could at least make it a requirement that all bets are public and associated with a real identity. That'd go a long way towards curbing the corruption of these things, while preserving (or even greatly enhancing) their "predictive power."
Another step would be to find ways to discourage bets on outcomes that the bettors participate in.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#100Why do “prediction” markets benefit from bets over nominal sums? Isn’t the power of them based on the wisdom of crowds? Wouldn’t capping bets at say $1 be better than trying to hunt down cheaters?
Seems like they actually are less predictive if you can get more votes with larger amounts of money.