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Claude's Cycles [pdf]

www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu

91–100 of 376 posts

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If AGI will ever come, then. Currently, AI is only a statistical machines, and solutions like this are purely based on distribution and no logic/actual intelligence.

Did you read the linked paper? Claude out-reasoned humans on a challenging (or at least, unsolved) math problem.

"humans"

Donald Knuth is an extremal outlier human and the problem is squarely in his field of expertise.

Claude, guided by Filip Stappers, a friend of Knuth, solved a problem that Knuth and Stappers had been working on for several weeks. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem (from my quick scan) to have been stated how long (or how many tokens or $) it took for Claude + Stappers to complete the proof.

In response, Knuth said: "It seems that I’ll have to revise my opinions about “generative AI” one of these days."

Seems like good advice. From reading elsewhere in this comment section, the goalposts seem to be approaching the infrared and will soon disappear from the extreme redshift due to rate at which they are receding with each new achievement.

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#92
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the most fundamental argument that they are not, directly, an intelligence. They are not ever storing new information on a meaningful timescale. However, if you viewed them on some really large macro time scale where now LLMs are injecting information into the universe and the re-ingesting that maybe in some very philosophical way they are a /very/ slow oscillating intelligence right now. And as we narrow tha…

Would you consider someone with anterograde amnesia not to be intelligent?

That is a good area to explore. Their map of the past is fixed. They are frozen at some point in their psychological time. What has stopped working? Their hippocampus and medial temporal lobe. These are like the write-head that move data from the hippocampus to the neo cortex. Their "I" can no longer update itself. Their DMN is frozen in time. So if intelligence is purely the "I" telling a continuous coherent story about itself. The difference is that although they are fixed in time which is a characteristic shared by a specific LLM model. They can still completely activate their task positive network for problem solving and if their previous information stored is adequate to solve the problem they can. You could argue that is pretty similar to an LLM and what it does. So it is certainly a signifiant component of intelligence.

There is also the nature of the human brain, it is not just those systems of memory encoding, storage, and use of that in narratives. People with this type of amnesia still can learn physical skills and that happens in a totally different area of the brain with no need for the hippocampus->neocortex consolidation loop. So, the intelligence is significantly diminished, but not entirely. Other parts of the brain are still able to update themselves in ways an LLM currently cannot. The human with amnesia also has a complex biological sensory input mapping that is still active and integrating and restructuring the brain. So, I think when you get into the nuances of the human in this state vs. an LLM we can still say the human crosses some threshold for intelligence where the LLM does not in this framework.

So, they have an "intelligence", localized to the present in terms of their TPN and memory formation. LLMs have this kind of "intelligence". But the human still has the capacity to rewire at least some of their brain in real time even with amnesia.

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#93
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Probable given what? The training data.. >predicting what intelligence would do No, it just predict what the next word would be if an intelligent entity translated its thoughts to words. Because it is trained on the text that are written by intelligent entities. If it was trained on text written by someone who loves to rhyme, you would be getting all rhyming responses. It imitates the behavior -- in text -- of what…

> The training data If the prompt is unique, it is not in the training data. True for basically every prompt. So how is this probability calculated?

The prompt is unique but the tokens aren't.

Type "owejdpowejdojweodmwepiodnoiwendoinw welidn owindoiwendo nwoeidnweoind oiwnedoin" into ChatGPT and the response is "The text you sent appears to be random or corrupted and doesn’t form a clear question." because the prompt doesnt correlate to training data.

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#94
> Filip also told me that he asked Claude to continue on the even case after the odd case had been resolved. “But there after a while it seemed to get stuck. In the end, it was not even able to write and run explore programs correctly anymore, very weird. So I stopped the search.”

Interesting snippet towards the end. I wonder if they were using claude.ai or claude code. Sounds like they ran out of context and entered the "dumb zone."

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#95
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I swear that AI could independently develop a cure for cancer and people would still say that it's not actually intelligent, just matrix multiplications giving a statistically probable answer! LLMs are at least designed to be intelligent. Our monkey brains have much less reason to be intelligent, since we only evolved to survive nature, not to understand it. We are at this moment extremely deep into what most people…

>AI could independently develop a cure for cancer All the answers for all your questions is contained in randomness. If you have a random sentence generator, there is a chance that it will output the answer to this question every time it is invoked. But that does not actually make it intelligent, does it?

This is exactly how problem solving works, regardless of the substrate of cognition.

Start with "all your questions contained in randomness" -> the unconstrained solution space.

The game is whether or not you can inject enough constraints to collapse the solution space to one that can be solved before your TTL expires. In software, that's generally handled by writing efficient algorithms. With LLMs, apparently the SOTA for this is just "more data centers, 6 months, keep pulling the handle until the right tokens fall out".

Intelligence is just knowing which constraints to apply and in what order such that the search space is effectively partitioned, same thing the "reasoning" traces do. Same thing thermostats, bacteria, sorting algorithms and rivers do, given enough timescale. You can do the same thing with effective prompting.

The LLM has no grounding, no experience and no context other than which is provided to it. You either need to build that or be that in order for the LLM to work effectively. Yes, the answers for all your questions are contained. No, it's not randomness. It's probability and that can be navigated if you know how

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#96
post #50
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Put a loop around an LLM and, it can be trivially made Turing complete, so it boils down to whether thinking requires exceeding the Turing computable, and we have no evidence to suggest that is even possible.

What are you doing in your loop? As typically deployed [1] LLMs are not turing complete. They're closer to linear bounded automaton, but because transformers have a strict maximum input size they're actually a subset of the weaker class of deterministic finite automaton. These aren't like python programs or something that can work on as much memory as you supply them, their architecture works on a fixed maximum amoun…

Turing Machines don't need access to the entire tape all at once, it's sufficient for it to see one cell at a time. You could certainly equip an LLM with a "read cell", "write cell", and "move left/right" tool and now you have a Turing machine. It doesn't need to keep any of its previous writes or reads in context. A sliding context window is more than capacious enough for this.

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#97
Must be a fun time to work on open problems. I published my graduate research close to a decade ago, often find myself fantasizing about tackling open problems with Claude.

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#98
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I swear that AI could independently develop a cure for cancer and people would still say that it's not actually intelligent, just matrix multiplications giving a statistically probable answer! LLMs are at least designed to be intelligent. Our monkey brains have much less reason to be intelligent, since we only evolved to survive nature, not to understand it. We are at this moment extremely deep into what most people…

>AI could independently develop a cure for cancer All the answers for all your questions is contained in randomness. If you have a random sentence generator, there is a chance that it will output the answer to this question every time it is invoked. But that does not actually make it intelligent, does it?

You are arguing a point no-one is making. LLMs are not random sentence generators. Its probability distributions are anything but random. You could make an actual random sentence generator, but no-one would argue about its intelligence.

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#99
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you consider someone with anterograde amnesia not to be intelligent?

Sure, why can't both things be true? "Intelligence" is just what you call something and someone else knows what you mean. Why did AI discourse throw everyone back 100 years philosophically? Its like post-structuralism or Wittgenstein never happened.. It's so much less important or interesting to like nail down some definition here (I would cite HN discourse the past three years or so), than it is to recognize what it…

I think you can look at it dispassionately from a systems perspective. There is not /really/ a quantifiable threshold for capital I Intelligence. But there is a pretty well agreed set of properties for biological intelligence. As humans, we have conveniently made those properties match things only we have. But you can still mechanistically separate out the various parts of our brain, what they do, and how they interact and we actually have a pretty good understanding of that.

You can also then compare that mapping of the human brain to other biological brains and start to figure out the delta and which of those things in the delta create something most people would consider intelligence. You can then do that same mapping to an LLM or any other AI construct that purports intelligence. It certainly will never be a biological intelligence in its current statistical model form. But could it be an Intelligence. Maybe.

I don't think, if you are grounded, AI did anything to your philosophical mapping of the mind. In fact, it is pretty easy to do this mapping if you take some time and are honest. If you buy into the narratives constructed around the output of an LLM then you are not, by definition, being very grounded.

The other thing is, human intelligence is the only real intelligence we know about. Intelligence is defined by thought and limited by our thought and language. It provides the upper bounds of what we can ever express in its current form. So, yes, we do have a tendency to stamp a narrative of human intelligence onto any other intelligence but that is just surface level. We de decompose it to the limits of our language and categorization capabilities therein.

Re: Claude's Cycles [pdf]

#100
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A very good point. For anyone not familiar with anterograde amnesia, the classical case is patient H.M. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Molaison ), whose condition was researched by Brenda Milner.

Or you could have just said "they can't form new memories."

That is a descriptive surface level reduction. Now do the work to define what that actually means for the intelligence.
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