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Global Intelligence Crisis

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Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#91

Post by vmg12 »

ilaksh wrote: post #67
vmg12 wrote: post #19

In other words, switching costs go to 0, margins collapse. Middle men and people with products that aren't differentiated get hit hardest. A human can't search 10 apps for the best rates / lowest fees but an agent can. Thinking ahead 100 years from now, companies like doordash and uber eats don't exist and are instead protocols agents use to bid for items their user asks for and price discovery happens in real time.

Right, but why the heck would you guess 100 years when we could build and adopt that in less than two weeks? There are already many people working on this type thing. Some of them have been working on it for years and a few probably already have solutions ready to go or even in use.

I was using 100 years as a way to handwave the timeframe to emphasize that this will happen some time in the future.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#92

Post by vmg12 »

lm28469 wrote: post #71
vmg12 wrote: post #19

In other words, switching costs go to 0, margins collapse. Middle men and people with products that aren't differentiated get hit hardest. A human can't search 10 apps for the best rates / lowest fees but an agent can. Thinking ahead 100 years from now, companies like doordash and uber eats don't exist and are instead protocols agents use to bid for items their user asks for and price discovery happens in real time.

Go to a supermarket, witness that dozens of brands sell the same things at wildly different prices, they still all make a profit, same for most services, you have comparator for subscriptions, mortgage rates, &c. And a human can 100% search 10 apps and use his brain to do basic maths, that's what we've been doing until now. Sometimes I wonder if ai shills live in a parallel universe because it truly feels like they'r…

What exactly am i shilling?

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#93

Post by stego-tech »

nojs wrote: post #82
stego-tech wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but historical evidence Okay, I get that. Nobody is disputing historical evidence . What we're asking is, does the current pattern also fit historical evidence ? The answer a growing number of us seemingly reach is, no it does not, because generalized artificial intelligence is by definition able to replace general labor, and that includes future roles as well as current and prior ones . That's what I'm shaking, sc…

The argument is more like “humans always invent new things to want that are scarce”, and until AI literally replaces all human labour to the point of the marginal utility of a human being zero, this category will continue to exist.

Which is a fair and nuanced argument! It is also not the same as, "but historical data shows X," which is regurgitated so often without any context as to be appallingly ignorant.

We gotta take these bad actors at their word that they're creating AI meant to (eventually) wholesale replace human labor, and act accordingly. That doesn't mean burning down data centers or trying to shove AI back into Pandora's Box, so much as it means not letting them dictate societal trends or reforms necessary to ensure stability and survival through such an incredibly disruptive transformation, provided they're right.

Arguing against proactive reform with regards to AI is the same sort of ignorance I've heard about climate change for my entire life, and folks shouldn't stand for it. We have infinitely more to lose by doing nothing with a "wait and see" approach than if we proactively legislate around its definitive harms.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#94

Post by SirensOfTitan »

jstummbillig wrote: post #75
SirensOfTitan wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. So then when is the best time for labor to act to ensure those mechanisms are put in place? Before or after AI has eliminated its leverage? Like I totally realize we're agreed in some sense, but some form of socialism now in the US seems politically untenable, and as soon as AI actually starts making service labor obsolete, we lose our leverage. How do we do something about it?

How do you mean "eliminating the leverage"? White collar jobs go first, robots are right behind. I am relatively certain everyone will be scared shitless of where this is potentially going fairly soon. The leverage will simply come from existing and being in the same group as roughly ~everyone on the planet.

I mean like: being alive isn't leverage, but controlling the economic output that has made elites rich is.

Mass economic displacement often doesn't produce solidarity, it produces fragmentation, scapegoating, and strongmen. People won't agree on why things are bad.

And the state is way more sophisticated than during the labor movements of the last century or two. If it is aligned with the elites and the masses have no leverage, it has numerous tools for massive surveillance, police and military control, and propaganda that will only get more effective through AI. They might not even need the extreme levers, mass confusion alone might be enough.

There's that old joke: "I have to admit, I'm always so impressed by Soviet propaganda. You really know how to get people worked up," the CIA agent says.

"Thank you," the KGB says. "We do our best but truly, it's nothing compared to American propaganda. Your people believe everything your state media tells them."

The CIA agent drops his drink in shock and disgust. "Thank you friend, but you must be confused... There's no propaganda in America."

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#95

Post by largbae »

stego-tech wrote: post #57
7777777phil wrote: post #36

If I understand this correctly, the whole chain depends on Phase 1 being right, that agentic coding makes SaaS replicable in weeks. We got a live test of that in February when Claude Cowork plugins wiped ~$2T off enterprise software. As I see it the market made a category error though, pricing Salesforce and ServiceNow the same when systems of record and systems of engagement have very different exposure: https://phi…

> but historical evidence Okay, I get that. Nobody is disputing historical evidence . What we're asking is, does the current pattern also fit historical evidence ? The answer a growing number of us seemingly reach is, no it does not, because generalized artificial intelligence is by definition able to replace general labor, and that includes future roles as well as current and prior ones . That's what I'm shaking, sc…

I still think Jevons Paradox has a role to play here. It was not obvious at all during the industrial revolution that the middle class would end up processing information, and to the displaced middle class, their prospects must have felt exactly like the article and your statement here.

If we accept that information processing and process automation are about to become ludicrously cheap compared to now, what previously-impossible projects become feasible-but-hard now?

Security oversight and trust management for AI services seems like a good stepping stone. Air traffic control innovations that enable a flying vehicle per person? Dynamic MMORPGs where great storytellers can build and manage whole worlds for adventurers to explore? Organic food production so well managed that it becomes accessible to normal folks? Perhaps our ability to consume resources before robots will flip everything around and mining basic resources will become the valuable human labor.

Even without new categories, there are plenty of service professions where a human touch will be valued over anything that any machine can provide. These might be unlikely to pay doctor-level pay (except perhaps... doctors).

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#96

Post by botusaurus »

jstummbillig wrote: post #75
SirensOfTitan wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. So then when is the best time for labor to act to ensure those mechanisms are put in place? Before or after AI has eliminated its leverage? Like I totally realize we're agreed in some sense, but some form of socialism now in the US seems politically untenable, and as soon as AI actually starts making service labor obsolete, we lose our leverage. How do we do something about it?

How do you mean "eliminating the leverage"? White collar jobs go first, robots are right behind. I am relatively certain everyone will be scared shitless of where this is potentially going fairly soon. The leverage will simply come from existing and being in the same group as roughly ~everyone on the planet.

parent is saying at that stage the powerfull will not need you anymore

so you become target practice

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#97

Post by throwaway2037 »

lijok wrote: post #78
krackers wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the assertion people don't price match groceries is so, so wrong. Many, many, many people have no choice I guess I didn't quite say my point clearly, the time and physical cost to get to a grocery store puts up barriers against perfect price matching. You likely are not going to go out of your way to visit a grocery store for just a single item. And I don't think online delivery will change anything here because shi…

> I guess I didn't quite say my point clearly, the time and physical cost to get to a grocery store puts up barriers against perfect price matching. You likely are not going to go out of your way to visit a grocery store for just a single item. I think you’re a bit out of touch with the common man. People do this constantly, some to a comical degree, going so far as to make two loops on their shopping trip to return…

    > People do this constantly, some to a comical degree, going so far as to make two loops on their shopping trip to return groceries they found cheaper at the next store.
To go less far, it is pretty common for normies to have at least two supermarkets in their shopping list: one with lower prices and one with higher prices, but fancier goods.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#98

Post by tehjoker »

encomiast wrote: post #22
scandox wrote: post #6

Surely only economists get excited by the revelation that consumers have to have money to buy things. I'd say domestic service is going to make a comeback. I do think I'd make an excellent man servant. Eke out my later years being ever so slightly superior to my employer without ever being openly insolent. Hang on...

I think domestic servitude is probably an understatement. We are looking at serfdom.

If this scenario comes to pass, then the class war in labor markets will have been won by capital. That would spell the end of the promise of non-violent resistance. What other leverage would ordinary people have if their labor is worthless?

Blue collar work is somewhat insulated so long as humans are cheaper and less fickle than robots.

We have seen in Gaza and to native americans what capital/power does to populations deemed surplus. It's not pretty. of course, that kind of violence happens once their land is desired, before that they are simply repressed.

I think if the superintelligence hypothesis really does happen, we will need to have a rapid accommodation for the bulk of the population or things will get quite out of control.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#99

Post by nubg »

oncelearner wrote: post #15

Superfacial takes, and very simplistic thinking, those loops aren't really realistic [ more ai spending => layoffs => less jobs => less spending => repeat]

Agreed. Not convinced. Too many assumptions, even one being off makes the whole house of cards fall.
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