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Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

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Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#91

Post by stephen_g »

ForHackernews wrote: post #88
aunty_helen wrote: post #60

Kinda glad this is the case. When people go out of their way to avoid common sense they should be punished. Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the ground. There seems to be some kind of psychosis around it being the next oil and therefore greedy people want to get in early on. But this blinds them to the basic chemistry and physics.

Why is it such a terrible idea? In theory you can generate it via electrolysis in places with plentiful renewable energy, and then you've got a very high-density, lightweight fuel. On the surface, it seems ideal for things like cars or planes where vehicle weight matters. Batteries are huge and heavy and nowhere near as energy dense as gasoline.

It’s horrible to work with - dangerous, embrittlement issues etc., and very energy intensive to compress into very heavy cryogenic storage containers…

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#92

Post by Rygian »

ForHackernews wrote: post #88
aunty_helen wrote: post #60

Kinda glad this is the case. When people go out of their way to avoid common sense they should be punished. Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the ground. There seems to be some kind of psychosis around it being the next oil and therefore greedy people want to get in early on. But this blinds them to the basic chemistry and physics.

Why is it such a terrible idea? In theory you can generate it via electrolysis in places with plentiful renewable energy, and then you've got a very high-density, lightweight fuel. On the surface, it seems ideal for things like cars or planes where vehicle weight matters. Batteries are huge and heavy and nowhere near as energy dense as gasoline.

Check out the "Clean Hydrogen Ladder" document.

Hydrogen wastes a large amount of energy.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#93

Post by butvacuum »

Aurornis wrote: post #69
kotaKat wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny thing, Air Liquide. They were going to build a massive green hydrogen plant in upstate NY and backed out when the tax credits disappeared... https://www.airproducts.com/company/news-center/2025/02/0224...

> and backed out when the tax credits disappeared... As they should. If the terms of the deal change, you need to start over with the business case and financials. If you want someone to be mad at, it’s the politicians making these bad tax credit decisions. Not the companies trying to respond to the tax credit incentives. Getting companies to build things they otherwise wouldn’t is the entire purpose of tax credits.

Hydrogen systems just don't make sense. Neither do molecular Hydrogen Fuel Cells.

Now, green hydrogen for ammonia, and Ammonia fuel cells? Yes.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#94

Post by XorNot »

mappu wrote: post #70
BadBadJellyBean wrote: post #10

I don't think hydrogen will ever be a thing for personal cars. Apart from the abysmal "well to wheel" efficiency it's also just such a hassle to create a fuel network for it. Gasoline is bad enough but a gas that will just leak away whatever you do seems like a stretch. It is just so much simpler with electricity. Pretty much every gas station already has it. No driving it around with trucks. Just maybe once install…

Gaseous form is a problem, but have you seen the Fraunhofer POWERPASTE? I was optimistic when the news was first announced, but that was a decade ago and of course it's not widely used.

At that point you're just building a weird battery storage system again though.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#95

Post by cosmic_cheese »

stetrain wrote: post #85
wlesieutre wrote: post #8

It’s not really fair to compare depreciation against MSRP when they were being sold new at massive discounts. You could’ve gotten one of these for $40,000 off. https://www.carscoops.com/2024/02/toyota-offers-crazy-40k-di...

This is a source of a lot of similar press around EV depreciation. They compare the MSRP of an EV 3 years ago with the current used market price, ignoring that the actual price paid is often significantly less due a combination of discounts, tax credits, and rebates.

The part that's interesting to me is how much the depreciation is posed as negative rather than positive.

The long term value of a car is only really relevant if one is constantly cycling through cars and needs the trade-in/resale value. If a car isn't viewed as an investment and/or the intention is to drive it into the ground, depreciation is purely positive because it means that there's insanely good deals on some great cars right now. Of course everybody's needs are different, but for a lot of people there's nothing that comes remotely close of the value of a gently driven, practically new 1-3 year old lease return EV.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#96

Post by Dylan16807 »

b112 wrote: post #25
blibble wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is the case while they're in the hype building phase, when people are paying attention if hydrogen even gained widespread adoption, it would be mass produced via steam reforming of natural gas (which is why the oil majors are the ones desperately pushing it)

That makes no sense. If the oil companies were pushing H2, every car would be H2 by now. H2 can be generated anywhere there is power. Any power that can be used to charge a car's battery, can be used to make H2. Yes, I'm sure you have 1000 reasons, but I don't really care, it's just not reasonable to discredit h2 because of made up paranoia. We should embrace any way to get a clean running car on the road.

> We should embrace any way to get a clean running car on the road.

Only if it's also feasible to fuel that car in a clean way.

And looking at where the hydrogen would come from is not "made up" or "paranoia".

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#97

Post by bombcar »

jasonwatkinspdx wrote: post #63
bombcar wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is most hydrogen fueling stations produce the hydrogen onsite via electrolysis of water. EDIT: My understanding was wrong - it's produced locally onsite but via steam-methane reforming: https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-na...

Completely wrong. Globally over 95% of hydrogen is sourced from fossil fuels, particularly natural gas wells. Electrolysis is very limited to niche applications or token projects.

Maybe that's what it was - produced onsite via steam extraction from piped in natural gas (which means you could just as easily burn the natural gas in the vehicle).

Either way there aren't many trucks full of hydrogen zipping around.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#98

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

ForHackernews wrote: post #88
aunty_helen wrote: post #60

Kinda glad this is the case. When people go out of their way to avoid common sense they should be punished. Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the ground. There seems to be some kind of psychosis around it being the next oil and therefore greedy people want to get in early on. But this blinds them to the basic chemistry and physics.

Why is it such a terrible idea? In theory you can generate it via electrolysis in places with plentiful renewable energy, and then you've got a very high-density, lightweight fuel. On the surface, it seems ideal for things like cars or planes where vehicle weight matters. Batteries are huge and heavy and nowhere near as energy dense as gasoline.

Hydrogen is the minimum viable atom: one proton, one electron. H2 is a tiny molecule. "hydrogen embrittlement" is when it's small enough to diffuse into solid metal, because it's that much smaller than iron atoms.

It's hard to work with because of this, and what's the point? For most uses, electricity supply is already everywhere.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#99

Post by XorNot »

mmooss wrote: post #83
BadBadJellyBean wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay not driving it around then. But somehow it's worse. You still have to build the special tank and the special pump and also get an electrolysis device that is big enough to create enough hydrogen and also you have to get heaps of power somewhere that could instead be just straight put into a battery in a car. Make it make sense. What's the point? Who is willing to do that?

> battery Batteries create a lot of toxic waste. I'm willing to live with that if it doesn't cause climate change but there is an advantage to hydrogen? What is the impact of H2 fuel cells?

Batteries do not create a lot of toxic waste and are essentially fully recyclable.

The lead in automotive lead acid batteries today is almost entirely recovered and remanufactured into new batteries.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#100

Post by XorNot »

glitchc wrote: post #68
MBCook wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but they already exist. Hydrogen stations don’t. If you have to build new ones, especially if you have to supply them with enough power to create their own hydrogen for water, what’s the difference from just building EV chargers? And if you’re going to add hydrogen to existing gasoline stations then same question. If hydrogen was somehow able to use existing gasoline infrastructure it would make a lot more sens…

H2 can be transported by trucks. Must lay expensive hydro infrastructure to do the same for electricity.

But not by the same trailers, not stored in the same tanks as gasoline, nor transferred by the same pumps.

This like saying obviously we can distribute grain using gasoline infrastructure: after all, also both transported by trucks.

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