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Russia's economy has entered the death zone

economist.com

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Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#91

Post by wiseowise »

shevy-java wrote: post #58
ericmay wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Yes and no. There's a minimum price they need to sell it, and somewhere in between they may not actually make enough between the minimum and sale price to actually fund their military. Nevermind the awesome job you guys are doing blowing up refineries and other industrial facilities. It'll be good when Europe stops importing Russian gas and steps up…

> Sanctions can and will work against Russia. We hear this mantra since almost 5 years. I am not saying there should not be sanctions, but at some point the strategic lies need to end.

Russia has one of the biggest war chests in the world, huge reserves of carbon fuel that it can afford to sell under market rates, and is supported by China. It can sustain even hardest sanctions for a long while, lifting them certainly wouldn’t help.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#92

Post by BobaFloutist »

nradov wrote: post #57
ericmay wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Yes and no. There's a minimum price they need to sell it, and somewhere in between they may not actually make enough between the minimum and sale price to actually fund their military. Nevermind the awesome job you guys are doing blowing up refineries and other industrial facilities. It'll be good when Europe stops importing Russian gas and steps up…

I favor harsher sanctions against Russia but let's not be too optimistic. It doesn't take much funding to recruit a poor, desperate guy from the outer provinces, hand him a surplus rifle, and send him into a human wave attack. In a perverse sort of way, killing off those guys might actually be reducing Russian government expenses.

I think probably if Russia ran out of money for drones and missiles and could only support human wave attacks, Ukraine would be pretty happy.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#93

Post by readthenotes1 »

Etherlord87 wrote: post #82
shevy-java wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sanctions can and will work against Russia. We hear this mantra since almost 5 years. I am not saying there should not be sanctions, but at some point the strategic lies need to end.

Maybe you should update your epistemology and stop listening to the guys that said so; I listen to the experts who say (since 2022) sanctions hurt, but russia is like a big tree - even if you poison it, it won't fall on the next day; it doesn't help that russia has disproportionately big spy network - people will take more abuse before they rebel against their government.

I think shevy was pointing out that some experts have assured us since before the war that sanctions can and will cripple Russia any day now.

Their epistemology doesn't need updating; the politicians fibbing need to be ridiculed.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#94

Post by samiv »

Same story for 4 years long. "Russian economy is at the brink of a collapse." Yet it Somehow just keeps ok going year after year.

The truth is that the sanctions are only hurting the Eurozone more than Russia. Small minority (EU or the political west) cannot force meaningful sanctions on much larger group (BRICS). Unfortunately this is not the narrative anyone can say out loud lest they be labeled as "Putin's trolls" so the wishy-washy keeps on going on.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#95

Post by wiseowise »

shevy-java wrote: post #63
zh3 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a strong supporter of Ukraine, I would say ultimately wars are won or lost by economic forces (the side that can't afford it any more loses). That's how the USSR lost the Cold War, and all I can hope is that all of Europe really has your back in this one.

But that is historically not quite true. World War 2 was not won due to the economy. And while it is true that the USSR "lost" the Cold War, they actually spent too much and entered a recurring debt from which they could no longer get out. There was no direct war here, which is different to e. g. world war 2 (at the least USA versus Germany). USSR and USA only fought some proxy wars.

> World War 2 was not won due to the economy.

It was literally won due to the economy. The moment Germans failed to knock out Soviets and Japanese pulled Americans into the fight their days were numbered due to insane industrial base of the both countries. Soviet meat waves, industry + lend lease won Europe and US finished Japanese.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#96

Post by ivan_gammel »

phicoh wrote: post #48
kergonath wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s military force, particularly a country as huge as Russia, which has also a sizeable population. Ukraine cannot do it on its own and I see no appetite from anybody else to do it, so I think it is unlikely to happen. Of course, it is also very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s economic power. Unfortunately, in Russia’s case, they have the raw materials and a pop…

Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money. That could change. But Putin seems reluctant to force the general population to die in Ukraine. Classic economic theory suggests that the amount you need offer to people willing to die goes up over time. For Ukraine the main thing is to get to the point that Russia doesn't attack any more. There is no need for Ukraine to concur any part of Russ…

This war has already changed. Near-stalemate on the front lines, exchange of strikes on civilian infrastructure (Ukraine made to Belgorod what Russia made to Kiev). It‘s a nuclear war without nukes, aiming at strategic defeat without advancing armies. And Russia definitely has more resources for it.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#97

Post by tclover »

It’s interesting, of course, but for example the Ukrainian budget depends on donations for about 60%, yet this dump doesn’t seem to rush to publish articles with equally loud headlines about Ukraine. Or about the US with its trillions in debt, or the UK, France, and most EU countries with huge debts exceeding their annual GDP.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#98

Post by atmavatar »

phicoh wrote: post #48
kergonath wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s military force, particularly a country as huge as Russia, which has also a sizeable population. Ukraine cannot do it on its own and I see no appetite from anybody else to do it, so I think it is unlikely to happen. Of course, it is also very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s economic power. Unfortunately, in Russia’s case, they have the raw materials and a pop…

Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money. That could change. But Putin seems reluctant to force the general population to die in Ukraine. Classic economic theory suggests that the amount you need offer to people willing to die goes up over time. For Ukraine the main thing is to get to the point that Russia doesn't attack any more. There is no need for Ukraine to concur any part of Russ…

> Even getting the currently occupied land back is mostly optional.

That's only true in the short term.

If Russia gets out of the war with Ukraine with territory gains, that only serves as incentive to start up again after Russia can regroup. After all, Putin's stated long-term goal is to take the entire country (among others) and restore the USSR.

Of course, taking back the occupied land is also easier said than done, as it would severely weaken Putin domestically to have expended all these resources and lives for nothing. There's no way he can allow that.

Both countries are in a catch-22.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#99

Post by ivan_gammel »

ajross wrote: post #87
kergonath wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's misunderstanding the model of actors. "Russia" isn't "Putin". "Countries" act in the best interests of their power structure, not their leaders. No, I am not misunderstanding. For all intents and purposes, at the moment Putin’s will is Russia’s will. And it looks like he knows his weaknesses within the country and is willing to let marginal populations bear the weight of his ambitions while keeping his power…

"There will not be a coup" is on the tombstone of like every failed leader ever. Economics doesn't change. Countries aren't people, even if the people running them try desperately to make you think so. I'm not saying that Putin is going to be deposed next week, or year, or even ever. I'm saying that the Russian government is no less susceptible to the circumstances that produce coups than any other failed state, and…

Except that Russia isn’t failed state. It’s politically stable (even more than before war), can mostly serve its population. The fact that it’s currently engaged in an expensive war, changes nothing.
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